5 ms·
> This is true, but at least there was a "high bayesian prior" due to that being how it happened in the past. I'm not an expert in the history of viral origin
by timr 5y ago
> This is true, but at least there was a "high bayesian prior" due to that being how it happened in the past.
I'm not an expert in the history of viral origin stories, but I'm pretty informed, and I'm not aware of any documented examples of pathogens emerging from public markets.
To be clear, I'm aware of lots of examples associated with pig and chicken farms, and several viruses that are presumed to have emerged from various kinds of "bush meat" (monkeys, guinea pigs, deer), but even these are pretty much correlative lines of evidence. A documented case of a virus emerging from a wet market? No. Moreover, if you've been to one of these things, it's pretty implausible as the source of a respiratory virus. They're usually outdoors, or in vast spaces. At least in farms you've usually got a farmer hanging around in a small building with hundreds or thousands of identical animals on a regular basis.
The evidence for the wet-market theory has always felt like one of those things that "scientists just know"...until it turns out they were repeating apocryphal stories to each other. This happens far more often than scientists care to admit.
- deleted 5y ago[deleted]
- dnautics 5y agoH1N5, SARS
- timr 5y agoNeither originated in wet markets that we know of. Both appear to have been circulating in the community before the first cases were reported: https://academic.oup.com/cid/article/34/Supplement_2/S58/459477 https://academic.oup.com/cid/article/34/Supplement_2/S58/459... > In summary, the present evidence indicates that the H5N1 strains that caused the Hong Kong 1997 outbreak were reassortants from multiple cocirculating avian influenza virus strains https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/labs/pmc/articles/PMC3323155/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/labs/pmc/articles/PMC3323155/ > On January 2, 2003, two cases of atypical pneumonia in the city of Heyuan, Guangdong Province, were associated with transmission of infection to several healthcare workers at the hospital (5). Investigation by the Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention led to the identification of clusters of cases in six other municipalities (Foshan, Jiangmen, Zhongshan, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Zhaoqing) from November 2002 to mid-January 2003.
- dnautics 5y agoYou're cherry picking reviews. Don't get me wrong, I 95% believe the lab leak theory for COVI9, but the wet market theory has a reasonably credible history.
- timr 5y ago> You're cherry picking reviews. I literally took the first two papers I found via googling. > the wet market theory has a reasonably credible history. You're free to cite some of this history.