6 ms·
When you're on that curve, it's indistinguishable until you hit the plateau. We're in an era where AI is continuing to improve and has already surpassed a level
by axg11 5y ago
When you're on that curve, it's indistinguishable until you hit the plateau. We're in an era where AI is continuing to improve and has already surpassed a level that many people doubted was achievable. Nobody knows when that progress will plateau. It's entirely possible that we plateau _after_ surpassing human-level intelligence.
- mark_l_watson 5y agoExactly correct. We really don't know if the progress is exponential or like a Sigmoid squashing function. You just changed my opinion, a bit, on this.
- antisthenes 5y agoIf we're limited to Earth and fossil fuels, then it's a sigmoid.
- nradov 5y agoThe AI technology today has practical value for some use cases but it's basically just clever parlor tricks. There has been near zero discernable progress toward artificial general intelligence. We don't yet have a computer that can learn and make optimal resource usage decisions in an open world environment as well as a mouse. In most respects we're not even at the insect level yet.
- dnautics 5y ago> The AI technology today has practical value for some use cases but it's basically just clever parlor tricks. Come on, you could have said the same thing about excel 30 years ago.
- nradov 5y agoYes Excel has more features today. So what? We're still not making any measurable progress towards true AGI. We don't even know what the development path or ultimate goal looks like except for some vague hand waving about passing the Turing Test.
- dnautics 5y agoI work for a company that provides "ai" services in a "boring" domain. The Time saved and accuracy (for a legally audited result) we provide is quantifiable, and when I saw the numbers I was surprised. So while a lot of the "AI" hype is stupid marketing bs, some of us are actually doing real stuff, it's not just parlor tricks. You might also be surprised in how many domains a small improvement has huge yield in terms of raw money and/or quality of life improvements.
- folli 5y agoYou're making the point that the linked article is trying to argue against.
- robrorcroptrer 5y agoHow good is this model at fighting other insects?
- oblvious-earth 5y agoIf you have actual data you can take the derivative of the curve and see you're on the S curve with a lot of confidence by the time you hit the middle and long before the plateau: https://miro.medium.com/max/700/1*6A3A_rt4YmumHusvTvVTxw.png https://miro.medium.com/max/700/1*6A3A_rt4YmumHusvTvVTxw.png
- solveit 5y agoEven small errors in measurement will greatly change the location of the projected plateau so this is not usually useful in practice.