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IMO this timeline places too much emphasis on Xi and his Mao aspirations. - 2008 PRC puts on successful Olympics. - Also 2008 PRC disillusioned with US system

IMO this timeline places too much emphasis on Xi and his Mao aspirations. - 2008 PRC puts on successful Olympics. - Also 2008 PRC disillusioned with US system post GFC. - 2009 PRC releases Indigenous Innovation Policy - precursor to MIC2025 that seeks to eventually undermine US monopoly on advanced manufacturing. - ~2010 China dismantles US CIA network and found out full extent of infiltration of US in PRC politics. Simultaneously ~2010s US think tanks started developing Obamas East Asia Policy, then "official" Pivot to East in 2012, which accounts for trend of PRC becoming competitor. This is all pre-Xi, whose policies were continuation of above: - further eroded US influence by crushing NGOs, retaliatory kicking out of western press, HK (western influence) - credibly modernized the military when previous efforts failed, built SCS islands - was public about MIC2025, Huawei become preview for PRC dominated tech - increasing development/maturity of PRC R&D and manufacturing This was until 2018 when US/west options to influence PRC have been thoroughly eroded, while PRC reach spread, and it become more obvious PRC industrial policy and acquisitions abroad was tailored to compete with other advanced economies. Even then it could have gone either way (at least for a little while), XJ was below radar stuff, HK was subject to Trump Trade deal until covid changed US domestic policy sufficiently to hand reigns to Chinahawks. It has nothing to do with Xi having Mao aspirations but Xi doing what others could not, comprehensively undermine US influence within PRC while also picking away at US military and economic primacy. First is just good statecraft, last two inevitable - can't expect world's largest economy by PPP to have weak military or stay down on the value chain forever. In terms of turning off west, you have PRC daring to directly competing with US turning off immediate US sphere (FVEY, east asia security SKR / JP) first, Then you have PRC wolf warrior asserting privileges of great power that turned off EU (TBD)... sanctioning EU (politicians and now secondary sanctions to Lithuania) for thinking it can sanction or undermine PRC core interests consequence free. PRC would have had to hide and bide in 2000s, but less politically tentable in 2020s. Xi hasn't changed since 2012, the geopolitical balance has. Could it all have been avoided, maybe a few years. But PRC pursuing her interests with her resources was going to butt heads eventually. Xi/Trump dynamic accelerated things. Xi's fault was being competent where it matters to westerns interests, and no doubt his foreseeable tenure will only add to ongoing anxieties.

throwaway4good 5y ago
You can make the story more complex, or you can make it really simple: For the past 2 decades the asumption was that China's outsize growth was just about to stop with an economic crisis and that crisis would be the end of the communist rule. Now that that clearly has not happened, the US has to go war with its upcoming rival. The first part of the war is non-military: A media campaign, tech sanctions, general sanctions, rallying of allies, destabilization of neighbouring countries etc. China has little way of responding however I predict it won't be enough to stop its growth.
- dirtyid 5y ago
  It's a tidy TLDR, but I didn't get sense most of US blob in the last 20 years were Gordon Chang tier collapsists. They just expected PRC to be foreseeably manageable, whether through economics, or influence, or military. Any one of one of the instruments will do to make PRC subservient in existing order, but Xi dismantled most of them in record time while US was distracted in ME. Then panic when PRC wants a stake in the order as equals or at least proportional to her power, but the cake isn't big enough to share with country size of PRC. Queue your list of interventions.
seanmcdirmid 5y ago
I lived in Beijing in 2007-2016, and as soon as the 2008 Olympics were over, you are exactly right! China was putting on a show for the world, and it turned out to only be until the Olympics over. Shortly after the Olympics, the real blocking started (Facebook, Twitter, Google, etc...). They started hardline cracking down on minorities again, riots were harshy suppressed in Tibet and Xinjiang. You can't really trust the Chinese government. They put on a good show for the world, but it is just that. > ~2010 China dismantles US CIA network and found out full extent of infiltration of US in PRC politics. AKA, the air quality equipment in the American embassy that was used to tweet "crazy bad" pollution levels about Beijing AQI? That was why they blocked Twitter, because the CIA was undermining China's air quality, which was perfectly harmonious otherwise. China takes a crap in their backyard, and immediately blames the CIA for it, the world doesn't buy it anymore. Xi is the last vestige of Mao: someone who came of age during the cultural revolution and, for some weird crazy reason, embraces it completely. After Xi, the next Chinese leader will not have remembered Mao at all, it will be interesting to see what happens.

throwaway4good 5y ago

You can make the story more complex, or you can make it really simple: For the past 2 decades the asumption was that China's outsize growth was just about to stop with an economic crisis and that crisis would be the end of the communist rule. Now that that clearly has not happened, the US has to go war with its upcoming rival. The first part of the war is non-military: A media campaign, tech sanctions, general sanctions, rallying of allies, destabilization of neighbouring countries etc. China has little way of responding however I predict it won't be enough to stop its growth.

dirtyid 5y ago
It's a tidy TLDR, but I didn't get sense most of US blob in the last 20 years were Gordon Chang tier collapsists. They just expected PRC to be foreseeably manageable, whether through economics, or influence, or military. Any one of one of the instruments will do to make PRC subservient in existing order, but Xi dismantled most of them in record time while US was distracted in ME. Then panic when PRC wants a stake in the order as equals or at least proportional to her power, but the cake isn't big enough to share with country size of PRC. Queue your list of interventions.

seanmcdirmid 5y ago

I lived in Beijing in 2007-2016, and as soon as the 2008 Olympics were over, you are exactly right! China was putting on a show for the world, and it turned out to only be until the Olympics over. Shortly after the Olympics, the real blocking started (Facebook, Twitter, Google, etc...). They started hardline cracking down on minorities again, riots were harshy suppressed in Tibet and Xinjiang. You can't really trust the Chinese government. They put on a good show for the world, but it is just that. > ~2010 China dismantles US CIA network and found out full extent of infiltration of US in PRC politics. AKA, the air quality equipment in the American embassy that was used to tweet "crazy bad" pollution levels about Beijing AQI? That was why they blocked Twitter, because the CIA was undermining China's air quality, which was perfectly harmonious otherwise. China takes a crap in their backyard, and immediately blames the CIA for it, the world doesn't buy it anymore. Xi is the last vestige of Mao: someone who came of age during the cultural revolution and, for some weird crazy reason, embraces it completely. After Xi, the next Chinese leader will not have remembered Mao at all, it will be interesting to see what happens.