8 ms·

I'm just going to point out that this is the world's second period of globalisation and we are maybe seeing the second collapse. The first period was roughly fr

I'm just going to point out that this is the world's second period of globalisation and we are maybe seeing the second collapse. The first period was roughly from 1870 to 1914 and was brought to its end by the shock of the first world war and the following flu pandemic which, as well as directly killing lots of people, also led to mass restrictions on travel and the breakdown of the supply chain in large portions of the world. I think there are some fairly obvious similarities to what is happening today. The decades following the collapse of the first age of globalisation were not good for a lot of people, to put it mildly. It's worth quoting John Maynard Keynes about what the world was like prior to 1914 (if you were a rich westerner) and considering the parallels. “The inhabitant of London could order by telephone, sipping his morning tea in bed, the various products of the whole Earth, in such quantity as he might see fit, and reasonably expect their early delivery upon his doorstep. He could at the same moment and by the same means adventure his wealth in the natural resources and new enterprises of any quarter of the world, and share — without exertion or even trouble — in their prospective fruits and advantages. Or he could decide to couple the security of his fortunes with the good faith of the townspeople of any substantial municipality in any continent that fancy or information might recommend. He could secure forthwith, if he wished it, cheap and comfortable means of transit to any country or climate without passport or other formality. He could dispatch his servant to the neighboring office of a bank for such supply of the precious metals as might seem convenient — and could then proceed abroad to foreign quarters, without knowledge of their religion, language or customs, bearing coined wealth upon his person. He would consider himself greatly aggrieved and much surprised at the least interference. But most important of all, he regarded this state of affairs as normal, certain and permanent — except in the direction of further improvement." The question becomes, how can we avoid a 21st century equivalent to the inter war years and their culminating horrors if we are seeing a collapse of the second age of globalisation?

XorNot 5y ago
Given that through the entire pandemic I've been buying a steady stream of products from all over the world with only the briefest of delays in service...I don't see it. The supply chain disruption has been US and UK specific, and has very obvious causes specific to those countries - no one else is really having issues.
- LeanderK 5y ago
  I can certainly see some supply chain disruptions in Germany. For example, in the supermarket, there's always something out of stock that you need. But it's a minor inconvenience, nothing more than that. Just a few items. But I don't remember worrying about things being out of stock, ever.
- kavalg 5y ago
  I share your sentiment that the supply chain crisis seems somewhat exaggerated by media, however for some specific merchandise it exists. For example, it's been 9 months since I ordered a new mountain bike and it still hasn't arrived. Similar situation with new cars and motorcycles (0 stock, at least 3-6 months lead time). However, it doesn't seem plausible to me that parts shortages are due to decreased production from China. If the (Google/World bank) GDP graph is to be trusted, China's GDP only slowed down its growth rate, but never went down during the crisis (contrary to the US). So to me it looks like the supply chain crisis in the west was somewhat manufactured (even though I don't know by whom and for what reason).
  - JohnJamesRambo 5y ago
    https://www.bridgewater.com/its-mostly-a-demand-shock-not-a-supply-shock-and-its-everywhere https://www.bridgewater.com/its-mostly-a-demand-shock-not-a-... Some good data here.
  - andreareina 5y ago
    It's not just parts (in fact I saw a claim in /r/cycling that the warehouses have plenty of stock), it's also shipping those parts to distributors/bike builders that's an issue. Plenty of stories about how the ports are absolutely backed up.
- pdinny 5y ago
  In South Africa we've seen _some_ disruption too, but the immediate effects have been limited from a consumer perspective. What I find most impressive is how resilient the overall system is in spite of the many disruptions. I recently read a book (by Mark O'Connell) about how some groups predicted ever-imminent apocalypse and social collapse. The book was released shortly before the pandemic and tellingly one of the themes presented (not as the author's view, but as a view in some prepper communities) was that a global pandemic would lead a total collapse of the supply chain and then we would become feral and play out Mad Max etc. While global supply chain issues have led to some shortages (some more serious than others and some more protracted than others) there is so much that is still working. That's something to celebrate IMHO.
nradov 5y ago
European countries had essentially eliminated passports prior to WW1. Then during the war they were reintroduced as a "temporary" national security measure. Does that justification sound familiar?
mschuster91 5y ago
> The question becomes, how can we avoid a 21st century equivalent to the inter war years and their culminating horrors if we are seeing a collapse of the second age of globalisation? I'm afraid we are past that stage and at the edge of World War 3: - China is literally following Hitler's footsteps in eradicating Uyghur and Tibetan civilization and people, while saber-rattling to invade Taiwan, the world's most important semiconductor manufacturer. Their economic growth rate is being threatened, not just by the COVID consequences but also by other countries undercutting China on labor costs - which in turn threatens the CCP government as the informal deal of exchanging civil liberties with economic properties is breaking apart, and it doesn't help that under the regime of Xi Jinping the allowed ways of expressing discontent have been met with more and more repression. - Russia is waging a disinformation and propaganda war against Europe and the US, with the clear goal of driving wedges into our societies. At the same time, the Russian economy is mostly built on oil and gas exports, both of which are threatened - the world is growing less reliant on oil, and Europe is all but forced to diversify its sources for gas. It is realistic that either Putin himself or whoever is going to win the succession fight when he dies (at least openly, Putin has not made any succession plans or named/groomed a candidate) will use the old and tried method of rallying a disgruntled population behind the war against a "common enemy" or a "national worthy cause" (i.e. taking back Ukraine). - There will be yet-unseen waves of global mass migration caused by climate change and wars in Africa and by poverty and total government collapse in South America, and right now both the US and Europe stick their heads into the sand and build fortresses instead of thinking up a sustainable way on how to deal with a problem that is only growing to get bigger. - the entire Arabian area is a clusterfuck, even if the Palestine-Israel conflict has been reduced in importance as Israel made formal or informal deals with many of its neighbors. Iran is still developing a nuclear bomb, Turkey's wannabe-dictator Erdogan is struggling against economic depression and political discontent while still aiming to be a regional superpower, the oil sheik countries face (like Russia) the decline of oil money that has historically been used for decades to placate a population wanting democracy or at least basic human rights, and the remnants of the IS are still more than capable to cause serious trouble. Additionally, the US and Israel are constantly running air strikes on terrorists and political enemies (e.g. the Soleimani case), and Iran is engaging in terrorist activities itself. - speaking of nuclear bombs, no one including China has any idea what to do with North Korea, whose rockets and other arms are clearly capable of devastating destruction. Kim Jong-Un is likely in bad health and people including relatives of questionable loyalty have been purged, while Kim's own children are way too young to assume power. - globally, the aftermath of COVID and the demands that combatting climate change will cause on societies are going to be yet another destabilizing force, threatening the stability of many societies. Geopolitically, there are so many areas of tension and conflict that it is almost guaranteed to have major conflict break out in the next two decades. Remember, World War 1 was caused by a terrorist attack of a bunch of pretty much irrelevant Serbian nationalists.
mellavora 5y ago
> He could secure forthwith, if he wished it, cheap and comfortable means of transit to any country or climate without passport or other formality. What? No TSA? No stripping at airports? And allowed to bring your own liquids on airplanes? What horribly primitive times those must have been.
- leobg 5y ago
  Stefan Zweig in The World of Yesterday wrote about his first visit to the United States in the time before WWI: “No one asked about my nationality, my religion, my origin, and what was more—an amazing thing to imagine in our modern world of fingerprints, visas and police permits—I had travelled without a passport. But there was work waiting for people to do it, and that was all that counted. Fabulous as it now seems, a contract could be instantly agreed without today’s inhibiting intervention of state formalities and trade unions.”
  - EdwardDiego 5y ago
    > a contract could be instantly agreed without today’s inhibiting intervention of state formalities and trade unions Stefan Zweig was a novelist, poet and playwright, born of a wealthy family, so we can forgive him his lack of understanding of why state formalities and unions exist. (People don't generally form unions if they're being well paid and well treated, as my first piece of evidence, look at the thorough lack of unionisation in software developers).

XorNot 5y ago

Given that through the entire pandemic I've been buying a steady stream of products from all over the world with only the briefest of delays in service...I don't see it. The supply chain disruption has been US and UK specific, and has very obvious causes specific to those countries - no one else is really having issues.

LeanderK 5y ago
I can certainly see some supply chain disruptions in Germany. For example, in the supermarket, there's always something out of stock that you need. But it's a minor inconvenience, nothing more than that. Just a few items. But I don't remember worrying about things being out of stock, ever.
kavalg 5y ago
I share your sentiment that the supply chain crisis seems somewhat exaggerated by media, however for some specific merchandise it exists. For example, it's been 9 months since I ordered a new mountain bike and it still hasn't arrived. Similar situation with new cars and motorcycles (0 stock, at least 3-6 months lead time). However, it doesn't seem plausible to me that parts shortages are due to decreased production from China. If the (Google/World bank) GDP graph is to be trusted, China's GDP only slowed down its growth rate, but never went down during the crisis (contrary to the US). So to me it looks like the supply chain crisis in the west was somewhat manufactured (even though I don't know by whom and for what reason).
- JohnJamesRambo 5y ago
  https://www.bridgewater.com/its-mostly-a-demand-shock-not-a-supply-shock-and-its-everywhere https://www.bridgewater.com/its-mostly-a-demand-shock-not-a-... Some good data here.
- andreareina 5y ago
  It's not just parts (in fact I saw a claim in /r/cycling that the warehouses have plenty of stock), it's also shipping those parts to distributors/bike builders that's an issue. Plenty of stories about how the ports are absolutely backed up.
pdinny 5y ago
In South Africa we've seen _some_ disruption too, but the immediate effects have been limited from a consumer perspective. What I find most impressive is how resilient the overall system is in spite of the many disruptions. I recently read a book (by Mark O'Connell) about how some groups predicted ever-imminent apocalypse and social collapse. The book was released shortly before the pandemic and tellingly one of the themes presented (not as the author's view, but as a view in some prepper communities) was that a global pandemic would lead a total collapse of the supply chain and then we would become feral and play out Mad Max etc. While global supply chain issues have led to some shortages (some more serious than others and some more protracted than others) there is so much that is still working. That's something to celebrate IMHO.

nradov 5y ago

European countries had essentially eliminated passports prior to WW1. Then during the war they were reintroduced as a "temporary" national security measure. Does that justification sound familiar?

mschuster91 5y ago

> The question becomes, how can we avoid a 21st century equivalent to the inter war years and their culminating horrors if we are seeing a collapse of the second age of globalisation? I'm afraid we are past that stage and at the edge of World War 3: - China is literally following Hitler's footsteps in eradicating Uyghur and Tibetan civilization and people, while saber-rattling to invade Taiwan, the world's most important semiconductor manufacturer. Their economic growth rate is being threatened, not just by the COVID consequences but also by other countries undercutting China on labor costs - which in turn threatens the CCP government as the informal deal of exchanging civil liberties with economic properties is breaking apart, and it doesn't help that under the regime of Xi Jinping the allowed ways of expressing discontent have been met with more and more repression. - Russia is waging a disinformation and propaganda war against Europe and the US, with the clear goal of driving wedges into our societies. At the same time, the Russian economy is mostly built on oil and gas exports, both of which are threatened - the world is growing less reliant on oil, and Europe is all but forced to diversify its sources for gas. It is realistic that either Putin himself or whoever is going to win the succession fight when he dies (at least openly, Putin has not made any succession plans or named/groomed a candidate) will use the old and tried method of rallying a disgruntled population behind the war against a "common enemy" or a "national worthy cause" (i.e. taking back Ukraine). - There will be yet-unseen waves of global mass migration caused by climate change and wars in Africa and by poverty and total government collapse in South America, and right now both the US and Europe stick their heads into the sand and build fortresses instead of thinking up a sustainable way on how to deal with a problem that is only growing to get bigger. - the entire Arabian area is a clusterfuck, even if the Palestine-Israel conflict has been reduced in importance as Israel made formal or informal deals with many of its neighbors. Iran is still developing a nuclear bomb, Turkey's wannabe-dictator Erdogan is struggling against economic depression and political discontent while still aiming to be a regional superpower, the oil sheik countries face (like Russia) the decline of oil money that has historically been used for decades to placate a population wanting democracy or at least basic human rights, and the remnants of the IS are still more than capable to cause serious trouble. Additionally, the US and Israel are constantly running air strikes on terrorists and political enemies (e.g. the Soleimani case), and Iran is engaging in terrorist activities itself. - speaking of nuclear bombs, no one including China has any idea what to do with North Korea, whose rockets and other arms are clearly capable of devastating destruction. Kim Jong-Un is likely in bad health and people including relatives of questionable loyalty have been purged, while Kim's own children are way too young to assume power. - globally, the aftermath of COVID and the demands that combatting climate change will cause on societies are going to be yet another destabilizing force, threatening the stability of many societies. Geopolitically, there are so many areas of tension and conflict that it is almost guaranteed to have major conflict break out in the next two decades. Remember, World War 1 was caused by a terrorist attack of a bunch of pretty much irrelevant Serbian nationalists.

mellavora 5y ago

> He could secure forthwith, if he wished it, cheap and comfortable means of transit to any country or climate without passport or other formality. What? No TSA? No stripping at airports? And allowed to bring your own liquids on airplanes? What horribly primitive times those must have been.

leobg 5y ago
Stefan Zweig in The World of Yesterday wrote about his first visit to the United States in the time before WWI: “No one asked about my nationality, my religion, my origin, and what was more—an amazing thing to imagine in our modern world of fingerprints, visas and police permits—I had travelled without a passport. But there was work waiting for people to do it, and that was all that counted. Fabulous as it now seems, a contract could be instantly agreed without today’s inhibiting intervention of state formalities and trade unions.”
- EdwardDiego 5y ago
  > a contract could be instantly agreed without today’s inhibiting intervention of state formalities and trade unions Stefan Zweig was a novelist, poet and playwright, born of a wealthy family, so we can forgive him his lack of understanding of why state formalities and unions exist. (People don't generally form unions if they're being well paid and well treated, as my first piece of evidence, look at the thorough lack of unionisation in software developers).