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> they've been told it's simple: get vaccinated/boosted It is that simple. 90% of the people in the hospitals are unvaccinated still. Cut the unvaccinated fr

> they've been told it's simple: get vaccinated/boosted It is that simple. 90% of the people in the hospitals are unvaccinated still. Cut the unvaccinated fraction of the population down by 1/3 and you cut the hospitalization rate for the next wave by roughly 1/3. Instead people are doing T-cells/B-cells and affinity maturation the hard slow way. If we had a 100% vaccination rate we'd be done. Don't know why everyone so desperately needs to look for counterintuitive ways to approach the very simple problem that when there's a global pandemic you mitigate it with vaccination. Any other result is intellectuals thinking too hard to try to impress themselves and probably missing basic facts in the process.

jdrc 5y ago
in my country the official figure is that "90% of hospitalized are unvaccinated or vaccinated without a booster". this certainly sounds like a doctored phrase and it dilutes trust to the medical system.
- renaudg 5y ago
  It's simply accurate, and reflects the dramatic difference in vaccine efficacy between 2 and 3 doses (or rather, between a recent or more distant dose)
  - jdrc 5y ago
    The problem with that narrative is that it absolves responsibility for further action by pretending that the vaccines are the best we can do about this pandemic. It becomes a show and that's not good
peteradio 5y ago
> 90% of the people in the hospitals are unvaccinated still. Where is this true?
- lamontcg 5y ago
  New York City: https://twitter.com/DougHenwood/status/1486807706954567685 https://twitter.com/DougHenwood/status/1486807706954567685 Pennsylvania: https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/about-90percent-of-covid-19-patients-in-some-of-pas-hardest-hit-hospitals-are-unvaccinated/ar-AASxUzL https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/about-90percent-of-... Kansas City: https://www.newspressnow.com/news/national_news/coronavirus/covid-patients-overwhelm-kansas-city-hospitals-heres-how-many-arent-vaccinated/article_69e9479b-a43c-5a0c-b8ce-7c1ed784eae8.html https://www.newspressnow.com/news/national_news/coronavirus/... Missouri: https://www.newspressnow.com/news/regional_news/central_missouri/hospitals-seeing-worst-cases-of-covid-19-in-unvaccinated-as-omicron-surge-presses-on/article_88893a74-794c-54ef-9c35-198068f0a608.html https://www.newspressnow.com/news/regional_news/central_miss... Arizona over 80%: https://ktar.com/story/4856002/banner-health-leader-over-80-of-those-hospitalized-with-covid-are-unvaccinated/ https://ktar.com/story/4856002/banner-health-leader-over-80-... Boosters 90% effective against hospitalization with Omicron: https://fox8.com/news/coronavirus/cdc-boosters-90-effective-against-hospitalization-from-omicron/ https://fox8.com/news/coronavirus/cdc-boosters-90-effective-...
oreilles 5y ago
In France, between January 1st and 16th, vaccinated people accounted for 60% of the new hospitalizations. We, like most of Europe, have 90+% of adult population fully vaccinated, and are nowhere near "being done".
- phs318u 5y ago
  Unless my math is wrong, by your own numbers, unvaccinated French adults are 6x more likely to be hospitalised than unvaccinated adults.
  - phs318u 5y ago
    Doh! meant to say "vaccinated adults" at the end. (saw this too late to edit).
  - oreilles 5y ago
    Absolutely, but this is in no way related to whether we decide this is "the end" or not.
- harshreality 5y ago
  90% sounded high; I found an article saying as of today 79% of people in France have had both of the initial shots (not sure how they figure single-dose vaccines like J&J and Oxford), and 80% had 1. [1] Let's say it's 80%. 80/20. Primary vax status probably hasn't changed too dramatically in 1 month. p(hospitalized | vaxxed) = p(vaxxed | hospitalized) * p(hospitalized) / p(vaxxed) = 0.6 * p(hospitalized) / 0.80 = 0.75 * p(hospitalized) --- p (hospitalized | unvaxxed) = p (unvaxxed | hospitalized) * p(hospitalized) / p(unvaxxed) = 0.4 * p(hospitalized) / 0.2 = 2 * p(hospitalized) Vaccination gives a 2.67x reduction in hospitalizations (against omicron which all the anti-vaxxers are saying the vaccines don't do anything against). With your 90% figure, it becomes 2/3 instead of 3/4 and 4 instead of 2, which is 6x, confirming what the other replier got. [1] https://www.sortiraparis.com/news/coronavirus/articles/239732-vaccination-in-france-how-many-people-are-vaccinated-as-of-thursday-3-february-2022/lang/en https://www.sortiraparis.com/news/coronavirus/articles/23973...
xienze 5y ago
> If we had a 100% vaccination rate we'd be done. For a vaccine that doesn’t confer sterilizing immunity and whose effectiveness wanes rather quickly? To say nothing of variants or the fact that this virus has animal reservoirs. Or the impossibility of vaccinating 100% of a population in the first place, nevermind in perpetuity. “Ending it” was always a pipe dream.
_0ffh 5y ago
>we'd be done No, the current status is that we'll be done if and only if we reach acceptance of a situation that is not going to go away anytime soon. The only thing stopping us from being done is in people's heads. My government has spent hundreds of billions to prevent "the health care system from being overburdened". Not a single cent of that money went into the healthcare system. In fact, the systematic reduction of "healthcare overcapacity" was continued throughout. Our politicians are either remorseless criminals or fantastical dunces. Either way the world would be a better place if they were removed from power, one and all.
- mrtesthah 5y ago
  >The only thing stopping us from being done is in people's heads. Of course. The actual political debate in the US is whether society should accept and normalize daily mass death. If we applied today’s standards, 9/11 would have been a non-issue. It’s only about a days worth of covid deaths, after all.
  - _0ffh 5y ago
    No amount of vaccination will avoid everyone getting infected sooner or later. The vaccinated who die will have died with vaccination mandates or without them. The unvaccinated who die fall into two groups. Those who would also have died vaccinated and those who do so as a consequence of their own choice. That's neither my business nor yours, it's theirs alone. We may argue with them, but we can't force them and claim to be more moral for it, quite the opposite in fact.
    - lwkl 5y ago
      > Those who would also have died vaccinated and those who do so as a consequence of their own choice. Their choice has a direct effect on society and causes harm to other people. So no it's not as a simple as. I guess we could deny the unvaccinated medical care in hospitals. Because they take up ressources that would be spent on people with other medical issues. We have an about 70% vaccination rate and 80-90% of hospitalized covid patients are unvaccinated. Meanwhile I know of people that can't get standard procedures done because of covid patients (this wasn't a problem before the pandemic).
PathOfEclipse 5y ago
You've been duped by the mostly deceitful narrative about overwhelmed hospitals. Look at this data for your state: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/hospitalization-7-day-trend/texas https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/hospitalization-7-day-trend.... Even during the height of a COVID surge, the total hospitalizations is maybe 20% higher than normal. Also note that as COVID hospitalizations increase, regular hospitalizations decrease. This is a consequence of the dishonest reporting criteria encouraged by the CDC; people are hospitalized for unrelated reasons but happen to test positive for COVID so are counted as a COVID patients instead of regular patients. See, for instance: https://www.dailywire.com/news/massachusetts-now-differentiating-between-primary-or-incidental-covid-19-hospitalizations https://www.dailywire.com/news/massachusetts-now-differentia.... You can also web search for hospitals being overwhelmed by the flu. In a few minutes I found this happening in two different years: 2018 and 2000. The reality is that hospitals get overwhelmed very easily for a number of reasons. Even if you vaccinated everyone in the U.S., they would still get overwhelmed during surges. In other countries with higher vaccination rates, hospitals still get overwhelmed and primarily with vaccinated people: https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/08/20/1029628471/highly-vaccinated-israel-is-seeing-a-dramatic-surge-in-new-covid-cases-heres-why https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/08/20/1029628... The reality is that this pandemic is over as soon as we make it over. My family has been living a normal life since October 2020.
- Tostino 5y ago
  Thanks, glad to know that the wait times my family has spent with my grandparents this past couple years when they needed to go to the hospital was all in our heads. Edit: /s because apparently that is necessary.
  - not_really 5y ago
    Is this sarcasm? Because if not, glad you figure it out.
  - PathOfEclipse 5y ago
    Not to belabor the point, but it seems like you're talking past me, not against me. I said the hospitals would be overwhelmed even if everyone got vaccinated, not that they weren't overwhelmed.
the_doctah 5y ago
There are a whole lot of nonsense claims in this post without anything backing it up
base698 5y ago
Because of the sheer numbers the amount of vaccinated still are the majority in the hospital. You rate of going to the hospitalization is lower, but the raw numbers show more people in the hospital that are vaccinated. The people are are unvaccinated in some cases have medical reason not to be and therefore be more likely to be hospitalized for anything. You'd need to stratify the numbers by age, vaccine status, and comorbidity status to get the full picture. Early on when the 99% are unvaccinated line was going around all the data used was usually from before the vaccines were available.

jdrc 5y ago

in my country the official figure is that "90% of hospitalized are unvaccinated or vaccinated without a booster". this certainly sounds like a doctored phrase and it dilutes trust to the medical system.

renaudg 5y ago
It's simply accurate, and reflects the dramatic difference in vaccine efficacy between 2 and 3 doses (or rather, between a recent or more distant dose)
- jdrc 5y ago
  The problem with that narrative is that it absolves responsibility for further action by pretending that the vaccines are the best we can do about this pandemic. It becomes a show and that's not good

peteradio 5y ago

> 90% of the people in the hospitals are unvaccinated still. Where is this true?

lamontcg 5y ago
New York City: https://twitter.com/DougHenwood/status/1486807706954567685 https://twitter.com/DougHenwood/status/1486807706954567685 Pennsylvania: https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/about-90percent-of-covid-19-patients-in-some-of-pas-hardest-hit-hospitals-are-unvaccinated/ar-AASxUzL https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/about-90percent-of-... Kansas City: https://www.newspressnow.com/news/national_news/coronavirus/covid-patients-overwhelm-kansas-city-hospitals-heres-how-many-arent-vaccinated/article_69e9479b-a43c-5a0c-b8ce-7c1ed784eae8.html https://www.newspressnow.com/news/national_news/coronavirus/... Missouri: https://www.newspressnow.com/news/regional_news/central_missouri/hospitals-seeing-worst-cases-of-covid-19-in-unvaccinated-as-omicron-surge-presses-on/article_88893a74-794c-54ef-9c35-198068f0a608.html https://www.newspressnow.com/news/regional_news/central_miss... Arizona over 80%: https://ktar.com/story/4856002/banner-health-leader-over-80-of-those-hospitalized-with-covid-are-unvaccinated/ https://ktar.com/story/4856002/banner-health-leader-over-80-... Boosters 90% effective against hospitalization with Omicron: https://fox8.com/news/coronavirus/cdc-boosters-90-effective-against-hospitalization-from-omicron/ https://fox8.com/news/coronavirus/cdc-boosters-90-effective-...

oreilles 5y ago

In France, between January 1st and 16th, vaccinated people accounted for 60% of the new hospitalizations. We, like most of Europe, have 90+% of adult population fully vaccinated, and are nowhere near "being done".

phs318u 5y ago
Unless my math is wrong, by your own numbers, unvaccinated French adults are 6x more likely to be hospitalised than unvaccinated adults.
- phs318u 5y ago
  Doh! meant to say "vaccinated adults" at the end. (saw this too late to edit).
- oreilles 5y ago
  Absolutely, but this is in no way related to whether we decide this is "the end" or not.
harshreality 5y ago
90% sounded high; I found an article saying as of today 79% of people in France have had both of the initial shots (not sure how they figure single-dose vaccines like J&J and Oxford), and 80% had 1. [1] Let's say it's 80%. 80/20. Primary vax status probably hasn't changed too dramatically in 1 month. p(hospitalized | vaxxed) = p(vaxxed | hospitalized) * p(hospitalized) / p(vaxxed) = 0.6 * p(hospitalized) / 0.80 = 0.75 * p(hospitalized) --- p (hospitalized | unvaxxed) = p (unvaxxed | hospitalized) * p(hospitalized) / p(unvaxxed) = 0.4 * p(hospitalized) / 0.2 = 2 * p(hospitalized) Vaccination gives a 2.67x reduction in hospitalizations (against omicron which all the anti-vaxxers are saying the vaccines don't do anything against). With your 90% figure, it becomes 2/3 instead of 3/4 and 4 instead of 2, which is 6x, confirming what the other replier got. [1] https://www.sortiraparis.com/news/coronavirus/articles/239732-vaccination-in-france-how-many-people-are-vaccinated-as-of-thursday-3-february-2022/lang/en https://www.sortiraparis.com/news/coronavirus/articles/23973...

xienze 5y ago

> If we had a 100% vaccination rate we'd be done. For a vaccine that doesn’t confer sterilizing immunity and whose effectiveness wanes rather quickly? To say nothing of variants or the fact that this virus has animal reservoirs. Or the impossibility of vaccinating 100% of a population in the first place, nevermind in perpetuity. “Ending it” was always a pipe dream.

_0ffh 5y ago

>we'd be done No, the current status is that we'll be done if and only if we reach acceptance of a situation that is not going to go away anytime soon. The only thing stopping us from being done is in people's heads. My government has spent hundreds of billions to prevent "the health care system from being overburdened". Not a single cent of that money went into the healthcare system. In fact, the systematic reduction of "healthcare overcapacity" was continued throughout. Our politicians are either remorseless criminals or fantastical dunces. Either way the world would be a better place if they were removed from power, one and all.

mrtesthah 5y ago
>The only thing stopping us from being done is in people's heads. Of course. The actual political debate in the US is whether society should accept and normalize daily mass death. If we applied today’s standards, 9/11 would have been a non-issue. It’s only about a days worth of covid deaths, after all.
- _0ffh 5y ago
  No amount of vaccination will avoid everyone getting infected sooner or later. The vaccinated who die will have died with vaccination mandates or without them. The unvaccinated who die fall into two groups. Those who would also have died vaccinated and those who do so as a consequence of their own choice. That's neither my business nor yours, it's theirs alone. We may argue with them, but we can't force them and claim to be more moral for it, quite the opposite in fact.
  - lwkl 5y ago
    > Those who would also have died vaccinated and those who do so as a consequence of their own choice. Their choice has a direct effect on society and causes harm to other people. So no it's not as a simple as. I guess we could deny the unvaccinated medical care in hospitals. Because they take up ressources that would be spent on people with other medical issues. We have an about 70% vaccination rate and 80-90% of hospitalized covid patients are unvaccinated. Meanwhile I know of people that can't get standard procedures done because of covid patients (this wasn't a problem before the pandemic).

PathOfEclipse 5y ago

You've been duped by the mostly deceitful narrative about overwhelmed hospitals. Look at this data for your state: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/hospitalization-7-day-trend/texas https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/hospitalization-7-day-trend.... Even during the height of a COVID surge, the total hospitalizations is maybe 20% higher than normal. Also note that as COVID hospitalizations increase, regular hospitalizations decrease. This is a consequence of the dishonest reporting criteria encouraged by the CDC; people are hospitalized for unrelated reasons but happen to test positive for COVID so are counted as a COVID patients instead of regular patients. See, for instance: https://www.dailywire.com/news/massachusetts-now-differentiating-between-primary-or-incidental-covid-19-hospitalizations https://www.dailywire.com/news/massachusetts-now-differentia.... You can also web search for hospitals being overwhelmed by the flu. In a few minutes I found this happening in two different years: 2018 and 2000. The reality is that hospitals get overwhelmed very easily for a number of reasons. Even if you vaccinated everyone in the U.S., they would still get overwhelmed during surges. In other countries with higher vaccination rates, hospitals still get overwhelmed and primarily with vaccinated people: https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/08/20/1029628471/highly-vaccinated-israel-is-seeing-a-dramatic-surge-in-new-covid-cases-heres-why https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/08/20/1029628... The reality is that this pandemic is over as soon as we make it over. My family has been living a normal life since October 2020.

Tostino 5y ago
Thanks, glad to know that the wait times my family has spent with my grandparents this past couple years when they needed to go to the hospital was all in our heads. Edit: /s because apparently that is necessary.
- not_really 5y ago
  Is this sarcasm? Because if not, glad you figure it out.
- PathOfEclipse 5y ago
  Not to belabor the point, but it seems like you're talking past me, not against me. I said the hospitals would be overwhelmed even if everyone got vaccinated, not that they weren't overwhelmed.

the_doctah 5y ago

There are a whole lot of nonsense claims in this post without anything backing it up

base698 5y ago

Because of the sheer numbers the amount of vaccinated still are the majority in the hospital. You rate of going to the hospitalization is lower, but the raw numbers show more people in the hospital that are vaccinated. The people are are unvaccinated in some cases have medical reason not to be and therefore be more likely to be hospitalized for anything. You'd need to stratify the numbers by age, vaccine status, and comorbidity status to get the full picture. Early on when the 99% are unvaccinated line was going around all the data used was usually from before the vaccines were available.