5 ms·

Cringely thinks that will happen unless Windows 8 flies: We’ll start with Microsoft and Windows 8, which I’ll argue are going to be formidable competitors in t

by bergie 15y ago

Cringely thinks that will happen unless Windows 8 flies: We’ll start with Microsoft and Windows 8, which I’ll argue are going to be formidable competitors in the tablet space, primarily because it’s that or start spending all that cash on diversified investments to turn Microsoft into a Berkshire Hathaway. This is probably Ballmer’s last stand as a high tech CEO. http://www.cringely.com/2011/09/ballmers-last-stand/ http://www.cringely.com/2011/09/ballmers-last-stand/

sliverstorm 15y ago
Last stand? That implies a track record of failure, and last I checked Windows 7 was very successful.
- rbanffy 15y ago
  Define "very successful".
  - sliverstorm 15y ago
    Widely adopted? Not causing a mass Windows Exodus? Almost entirely supplanting XP? Sure, it didn't get the press coverage that OSX gets every time it adds a forgettable feature, but look around. If it's not a Mac and it's not a server, the smart money is betting it's Windows 7. FWIW I am typing this in Firefox on Redhat.
    - rbanffy 15y ago
      > Almost entirely supplanting XP? Can people still buy computers capable of running XP without extensive tweaking? Last time I saw someone installing XP on a modern, post-Vista, PC the process included downloading stuff into usb drives so that the PC could use the network. Windows 7 sells because Dell, HP and Acer sell and the machines that were in service running XP had to break some day. Normal people use whatever their computers come with and almost nobody buys boxed Windows. Vista was an exception - it was so bad people preferred using XP, even if installing it took a whole day of boots and downloads. When OEMs start to integrate 8 into their boxes you'll see 8's adoption match OEM shipments very closely. Microsoft even declared Vista was very successful based on that kind of number. > FWIW I am typing this in Firefox on Redhat. I don't see what effect this has on your reasoning. You won't be "more right" because you don't use Windows.
      - maratd 15y ago
        > Can people still buy computers capable of running XP without extensive tweaking? That has nothing to do with current hardware. I had to do that back in the day too. You people have been spoiled with Vista and Windows 7.
        rbanffy 15y ago
        So, if you are perfectly happy with XP and don't want Win7, I assume it's really easy to buy a new computer and install XP on it, right?
        maratd 15y ago
        > I assume it's really easy to buy a new computer and install XP on it, right? Why would you want to? It won't be any faster. If you need XP compatibility for something, use regular virtualization or XP Mode.
        rbanffy 15y ago
        Just to point out that, maybe, it's not Windows 7 that's successful, but Intel's Core i-something family of processors you can't buy computers with unless they are bundled with Windows 7. Someplace else I pointed out Microsoft has only 5 clients they really care about: Dell, Lenovo, Acer, HP and Asus.
        hammerdr 15y ago
        4 clients..
      - sliverstorm 15y ago
        You won't be "more right" because you don't use Windows. Just attempting to stymie folks deciding I must be a rabid Windows fanboy.
    - 0x12 15y ago
      How wide would that adoption be if not for bundled sales? Competing with 'free' is only hard once the cost is broken out and made visible. I was personally responsible for the purchase of 3 windows licenses last year, but I didn't use any of them. The Microsoft tax makes it seem as though things are better than they really are, it's only a couple of percent but it does make a difference and I think that percentage would be higher if people had to pay the full list price for their windows licenses.
      - Elepsis 15y ago
        How wide would the adoption of Mac OS X be without bundled sales? Yes, Windows as sold to consumers is largely driven by new PC purchases, but I don't think that is in any way indicative of its success or lack thereof, just of how consumers think of computers.
        0x12 15y ago
        Apple makes the computers, slight difference there.
      - dorian-graph 15y ago
        > How wide would that adoption be if not for bundled sales? http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology/2009/oct/21/windows-7-launch http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology/2009/oct/21/windows-7-l... - Windows 7 broke Amazon's record for being the most pre-ordered product, overtaking Harry Potter (!) and other products. Win7 is doing incredibly well at retail sales and enthusiasts who build their own computers and buy OEM copies. Besides, if people wanted something else, they would get that. Every year Linux is ready for the desktop yet isn't and for many people Macs are too expensive for their budget. Both also have the associated learning cost which for many consumers who are not enthusiasts can't afford. It's up to ? to get Linux recognised and lamenting about how mean Microsoft is won't get ? anywhere. It's only for so long ? can blame others.
  - runjake 15y ago
    Being the #1 desktop platform, and probably the #1 (non-web) server platform? If Microsoft isn't "very successful", I'd love to see who is.
    - rbanffy 15y ago
      The problem for them is that their core markets, the desktop and the non-web server, are becoming less and less relevant in comparison to mobile and web-based technologies. When people say the PC is dead, it's not that the desktop computer is dead - the form factor will continue to be popular - it's the local OS + applications + data model that was made popular with the 8-bit computers of the late 70's is losing space to a model where your apps and data reside on servers accessible through the internet using a wide assortment of different devices. If Windows 8 becomes a big hit, then, perhaps, Microsoft will survive long enough to completely switch its own model of selling software licenses to selling hosted services and the attention of its users through their app store model. In any case, it will be a very different Microsoft than the one that sold me the FORTRAN/77 compiler I used in college.
      - overgard 15y ago
        "If they survive long enough" seems like hyperbole to me. They might stagnate, sure, but that's a very different thing.
        rbanffy 15y ago
        They have to maintain a viable product lineup to create a smooth transition from their current PC software licensing model (and that includes their w8 app store) to a subscription or service-based model. If they cease to have attractive products for too long, their customers, who are getting more mobile as we speak, will easily move to their competition. And their competition doesn't have the burden of maintaining a lineup transition. Throughout its history, Microsoft almost always won by persistence, by being there to exploit their competitors' mistakes (and, sometimes, inducing them). I don't see Microsoft having this luxury now.
  - Michiel 15y ago
    Fastest selling would be one possible metric: "Kicking off Microsoft Corp.’s annual Worldwide Partner Conference (WPC), a four-day event that celebrates the accomplishments of the company’s 640,000 global partners, CEO Steve Ballmer today thanked partners for helping make Windows 7 the fastest-selling operating system in history" http://www.microsoft.com/Presspass/press/2011/jul11/07-11MSWPCDAY1PR.mspx http://www.microsoft.com/Presspass/press/2011/jul11/07-11MSW...
    - rbanffy 15y ago
      That, I assume, has nothing to do with all OEMs bundling Win7 with the computers they sell (and Win7 having no provision to be downgraded to XP like Vista had). When OEMs tie their products to Win7, it's expected record hardware sales will translate precisely to "software success". I think every PC around me (about 40 in this floor) counts as a Win7 sale. Two of them run Windows.
  - thedeuce 15y ago
    450,000,000 licenses sold so far...seems pretty successful considering how long its been on the market.
- pointyhat 15y ago
  The products are, but considering the "dance monkeyboy" moment, he is a failure as a human being.
- technoslut 15y ago
  There doesn't need to be a series of failures to predict the future. Both RIM and Nokia were very successful two years ago but anyone could see there were troubles ahead. With MS it's no different. PC growth is declining rapidly in favor of tablets and the consumer market is becoming far more important than the enterprise market. It's a direct attack on MS's core strengths.

by bergie 15y ago

sliverstorm 15y ago

Last stand? That implies a track record of failure, and last I checked Windows 7 was very successful.

rbanffy 15y ago
Define "very successful".
- sliverstorm 15y ago
  Widely adopted? Not causing a mass Windows Exodus? Almost entirely supplanting XP? Sure, it didn't get the press coverage that OSX gets every time it adds a forgettable feature, but look around. If it's not a Mac and it's not a server, the smart money is betting it's Windows 7. FWIW I am typing this in Firefox on Redhat.
  - rbanffy 15y ago
    > Almost entirely supplanting XP? Can people still buy computers capable of running XP without extensive tweaking? Last time I saw someone installing XP on a modern, post-Vista, PC the process included downloading stuff into usb drives so that the PC could use the network. Windows 7 sells because Dell, HP and Acer sell and the machines that were in service running XP had to break some day. Normal people use whatever their computers come with and almost nobody buys boxed Windows. Vista was an exception - it was so bad people preferred using XP, even if installing it took a whole day of boots and downloads. When OEMs start to integrate 8 into their boxes you'll see 8's adoption match OEM shipments very closely. Microsoft even declared Vista was very successful based on that kind of number. > FWIW I am typing this in Firefox on Redhat. I don't see what effect this has on your reasoning. You won't be "more right" because you don't use Windows.
    - maratd 15y ago
      > Can people still buy computers capable of running XP without extensive tweaking? That has nothing to do with current hardware. I had to do that back in the day too. You people have been spoiled with Vista and Windows 7.
      - rbanffy 15y ago
        So, if you are perfectly happy with XP and don't want Win7, I assume it's really easy to buy a new computer and install XP on it, right?
        maratd 15y ago
        > I assume it's really easy to buy a new computer and install XP on it, right? Why would you want to? It won't be any faster. If you need XP compatibility for something, use regular virtualization or XP Mode.
        rbanffy 15y ago
        Just to point out that, maybe, it's not Windows 7 that's successful, but Intel's Core i-something family of processors you can't buy computers with unless they are bundled with Windows 7. Someplace else I pointed out Microsoft has only 5 clients they really care about: Dell, Lenovo, Acer, HP and Asus.
        hammerdr 15y ago
        4 clients..
    - sliverstorm 15y ago
      You won't be "more right" because you don't use Windows. Just attempting to stymie folks deciding I must be a rabid Windows fanboy.
  - 0x12 15y ago
    How wide would that adoption be if not for bundled sales? Competing with 'free' is only hard once the cost is broken out and made visible. I was personally responsible for the purchase of 3 windows licenses last year, but I didn't use any of them. The Microsoft tax makes it seem as though things are better than they really are, it's only a couple of percent but it does make a difference and I think that percentage would be higher if people had to pay the full list price for their windows licenses.
    - Elepsis 15y ago
      How wide would the adoption of Mac OS X be without bundled sales? Yes, Windows as sold to consumers is largely driven by new PC purchases, but I don't think that is in any way indicative of its success or lack thereof, just of how consumers think of computers.
      - 0x12 15y ago
        Apple makes the computers, slight difference there.
    - dorian-graph 15y ago
      > How wide would that adoption be if not for bundled sales? http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology/2009/oct/21/windows-7-launch http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology/2009/oct/21/windows-7-l... - Windows 7 broke Amazon's record for being the most pre-ordered product, overtaking Harry Potter (!) and other products. Win7 is doing incredibly well at retail sales and enthusiasts who build their own computers and buy OEM copies. Besides, if people wanted something else, they would get that. Every year Linux is ready for the desktop yet isn't and for many people Macs are too expensive for their budget. Both also have the associated learning cost which for many consumers who are not enthusiasts can't afford. It's up to ? to get Linux recognised and lamenting about how mean Microsoft is won't get ? anywhere. It's only for so long ? can blame others.
- runjake 15y ago
  Being the #1 desktop platform, and probably the #1 (non-web) server platform? If Microsoft isn't "very successful", I'd love to see who is.
  - rbanffy 15y ago
    The problem for them is that their core markets, the desktop and the non-web server, are becoming less and less relevant in comparison to mobile and web-based technologies. When people say the PC is dead, it's not that the desktop computer is dead - the form factor will continue to be popular - it's the local OS + applications + data model that was made popular with the 8-bit computers of the late 70's is losing space to a model where your apps and data reside on servers accessible through the internet using a wide assortment of different devices. If Windows 8 becomes a big hit, then, perhaps, Microsoft will survive long enough to completely switch its own model of selling software licenses to selling hosted services and the attention of its users through their app store model. In any case, it will be a very different Microsoft than the one that sold me the FORTRAN/77 compiler I used in college.
    - overgard 15y ago
      "If they survive long enough" seems like hyperbole to me. They might stagnate, sure, but that's a very different thing.
      - rbanffy 15y ago
        They have to maintain a viable product lineup to create a smooth transition from their current PC software licensing model (and that includes their w8 app store) to a subscription or service-based model. If they cease to have attractive products for too long, their customers, who are getting more mobile as we speak, will easily move to their competition. And their competition doesn't have the burden of maintaining a lineup transition. Throughout its history, Microsoft almost always won by persistence, by being there to exploit their competitors' mistakes (and, sometimes, inducing them). I don't see Microsoft having this luxury now.
- Michiel 15y ago
  Fastest selling would be one possible metric: "Kicking off Microsoft Corp.’s annual Worldwide Partner Conference (WPC), a four-day event that celebrates the accomplishments of the company’s 640,000 global partners, CEO Steve Ballmer today thanked partners for helping make Windows 7 the fastest-selling operating system in history" http://www.microsoft.com/Presspass/press/2011/jul11/07-11MSWPCDAY1PR.mspx http://www.microsoft.com/Presspass/press/2011/jul11/07-11MSW...
  - rbanffy 15y ago
    That, I assume, has nothing to do with all OEMs bundling Win7 with the computers they sell (and Win7 having no provision to be downgraded to XP like Vista had). When OEMs tie their products to Win7, it's expected record hardware sales will translate precisely to "software success". I think every PC around me (about 40 in this floor) counts as a Win7 sale. Two of them run Windows.
- thedeuce 15y ago
  450,000,000 licenses sold so far...seems pretty successful considering how long its been on the market.
pointyhat 15y ago
The products are, but considering the "dance monkeyboy" moment, he is a failure as a human being.
technoslut 15y ago
There doesn't need to be a series of failures to predict the future. Both RIM and Nokia were very successful two years ago but anyone could see there were troubles ahead. With MS it's no different. PC growth is declining rapidly in favor of tablets and the consumer market is becoming far more important than the enterprise market. It's a direct attack on MS's core strengths.