7 ms·

So to summarize: - Freeways account for 93% of distance travelled with Autopilot - Freeways account for 28% of the distance travelled by regular drivers. - "

So to summarize: - Freeways account for 93% of distance travelled with Autopilot - Freeways account for 28% of the distance travelled by regular drivers. - "vehicles on non-freeways crashed 2.01 times more often per mile" a quick back of the envelop calculation suggests merely driving on the freeway lowers accidents per mile by ~40%, which accounts for most of the difference between Autopilot and regular drivers.

avs733 5y ago
so in sum, Thomas Bayes just kicked Tesla square in the ass?
- nwiswell 5y ago
  Square in the frunk.
adolph 5y ago
There are additional confounding variables noted in the paper: - Age of driver - Specific highways used (congestion, road conditions) - What is classified as a highway Overall this is pretty good news for "autopilot" systems. It gives some humans an ego-boost as they clutch to steering wheels like John Henry. It gives others interested in a more relaxed driving experience the confidence that the computer isn't going to kill them any worse than they already do.
- AtlasBarfed 5y ago
  And you know what? All I want out of the first fifteen years of self-driving is a really good highway autopilot. As in one I can hopefully sleep at the wheel on a late night trip between midwestern US cities. John Henryism can navigate the suburbs, stroads, and drivethrus. If they achieve a backup safety system that monitors the humans, well, ok great. But right now, I want long distance automation, and I can handle the messy last mile. Highways are much easier to get uniform infrastructure convergence: some sensors, PSA warnings, better signs + markings + construction notices, etc. I think Uber making as big a splash at it did sidetracked this low hanging fruit. IMO that was where the bootstrap bucks were, because you would have gotten freight/shipping to pay the cost of the next gen software, and would have provided the impetus for the convergent infrastructure. Alas, they are obsessed with robotaxis.
  - dreamcompiler 5y ago
    > But right now, I want long distance automation, and I can handle the messy last mile. Me too, and my Tesla handles daytime good-weather non-construction highway driving pretty well with just the standard autosteer. I finish a long road trip much less fatigued in a Tesla than I have in any other car. (Part of that is the seats. Tesla really sweats the details of making seats comfortable.) But FSD is kind of a sad joke. Off-highway navigation only works in particular major cities, the car stops at green lights, tries to turn right from the left lane, etc. And Elon thinks that's worth an extra $15k. Nope. It really isn't, at least for me.
  - gefhfffh 5y ago
    Actually, seems like you want a train
    - Dylan16807 5y ago
      Sure, and let me know where I can effectively vote and petition for extensive trains. But until they get built freeway autopilot is nice.
    - Yaggo 5y ago
      Trains don't operate from door to door. The last mile problem persist, unless you travel between railway connected city centres. Not everyone lives anywhere near a railway station. (I live in Europe which has relatively good railway network, still I prefer my Tesla as transport method.)
      - shaklee3 5y ago
        highways don't go door to door, and that's what they were suggesting.
        fedorareis 5y ago
        They were suggesting they want to use the same vehicle door to door with it being automated during the freeway bit. A train would still mean find some transport to the station, wait for the train, ride train, find transport from station.
- contravariant 5y ago
  Obviously the article goes into a lot more depth, though in my opinion things could be a bit clearer if they first established if Autopilot performs any differently on freeways or not and then try to see if controlling for any of the other possible confounds has any effect. I'm also not overly fond of their reweighting method, if not done carefully you'll just be amplifying a lot of noise.
alfor 5y ago
From what I heard the autopilot code is pretty old by now, with the new developpement on FSD I think we will see a lot of improvement, in human driving... not so much.
belter 5y ago
Again the old tricks, from "How To Lie With Statistics." I get you a perfect Sample around age, income, sex, nationality, times of day and others. Prove to you 98% of people in this Town love Romantic Comedies. The only thing I am not telling you, is that I am running the Inquiry at the exit atrium door of a Romantic Comedy movie...
- stavros 5y ago
  I doubt you'd be able to get much over 50%, given how often the audience there is couples on dates :P
KennyBlanken 5y ago
There are additional factors. Teslas are on average substantially newer than the average US passenger car fleet and thus have significantly more safety features and driver assistance tech, are better maintained, etc. If Tesla compared only to vehicles of similar age and class (Audi/BMW/Mercedes etc) their stats would be much less favorable.
- Robotbeat 5y ago
  People often save up especially for a Tesla (incorporating gas and maintenance savings in the price), including a lot of people who wouldn't be buying a BMW, so I'm not sure price would be the right metric there.
  - beberlei 5y ago
    Parent does not include price as a metric, but cars of the same age and class, which probably have many of the same default extra safety features. Older cars might not even have ESC, they certainly don't have cameras that help you detect cars in blind angles and so on.
    - Robotbeat 5y ago
      “Class” here refers to pricing, does it not? Luxury car owners will be quick to point out that the Model 3 and Y are not “luxury” class even if the cost ranges aren’t far apart.
  - ChuckNorris89 5y ago
    Are you saying just because more people are being financially irresponsible when buying Teslas, we should cease such comparisons?
    - Robotbeat 5y ago
      No, I’m saying that people incorporate a $10k price of gasoline into the price of the vehicle instead of paying for them separately as you would with a BMW.
noworld 5y ago
> more often This is what matters. If/when it becomes less often, the case will be made (i.e. driverless doesn't have to be perfect to be better).

avs733 5y ago

so in sum, Thomas Bayes just kicked Tesla square in the ass?

nwiswell 5y ago
Square in the frunk.

adolph 5y ago

There are additional confounding variables noted in the paper: - Age of driver - Specific highways used (congestion, road conditions) - What is classified as a highway Overall this is pretty good news for "autopilot" systems. It gives some humans an ego-boost as they clutch to steering wheels like John Henry. It gives others interested in a more relaxed driving experience the confidence that the computer isn't going to kill them any worse than they already do.

AtlasBarfed 5y ago
And you know what? All I want out of the first fifteen years of self-driving is a really good highway autopilot. As in one I can hopefully sleep at the wheel on a late night trip between midwestern US cities. John Henryism can navigate the suburbs, stroads, and drivethrus. If they achieve a backup safety system that monitors the humans, well, ok great. But right now, I want long distance automation, and I can handle the messy last mile. Highways are much easier to get uniform infrastructure convergence: some sensors, PSA warnings, better signs + markings + construction notices, etc. I think Uber making as big a splash at it did sidetracked this low hanging fruit. IMO that was where the bootstrap bucks were, because you would have gotten freight/shipping to pay the cost of the next gen software, and would have provided the impetus for the convergent infrastructure. Alas, they are obsessed with robotaxis.
- dreamcompiler 5y ago
  > But right now, I want long distance automation, and I can handle the messy last mile. Me too, and my Tesla handles daytime good-weather non-construction highway driving pretty well with just the standard autosteer. I finish a long road trip much less fatigued in a Tesla than I have in any other car. (Part of that is the seats. Tesla really sweats the details of making seats comfortable.) But FSD is kind of a sad joke. Off-highway navigation only works in particular major cities, the car stops at green lights, tries to turn right from the left lane, etc. And Elon thinks that's worth an extra $15k. Nope. It really isn't, at least for me.
- gefhfffh 5y ago
  Actually, seems like you want a train
  - Dylan16807 5y ago
    Sure, and let me know where I can effectively vote and petition for extensive trains. But until they get built freeway autopilot is nice.
  - Yaggo 5y ago
    Trains don't operate from door to door. The last mile problem persist, unless you travel between railway connected city centres. Not everyone lives anywhere near a railway station. (I live in Europe which has relatively good railway network, still I prefer my Tesla as transport method.)
    - shaklee3 5y ago
      highways don't go door to door, and that's what they were suggesting.
      - fedorareis 5y ago
        They were suggesting they want to use the same vehicle door to door with it being automated during the freeway bit. A train would still mean find some transport to the station, wait for the train, ride train, find transport from station.
contravariant 5y ago
Obviously the article goes into a lot more depth, though in my opinion things could be a bit clearer if they first established if Autopilot performs any differently on freeways or not and then try to see if controlling for any of the other possible confounds has any effect. I'm also not overly fond of their reweighting method, if not done carefully you'll just be amplifying a lot of noise.

alfor 5y ago

From what I heard the autopilot code is pretty old by now, with the new developpement on FSD I think we will see a lot of improvement, in human driving... not so much.

belter 5y ago

Again the old tricks, from "How To Lie With Statistics." I get you a perfect Sample around age, income, sex, nationality, times of day and others. Prove to you 98% of people in this Town love Romantic Comedies. The only thing I am not telling you, is that I am running the Inquiry at the exit atrium door of a Romantic Comedy movie...

stavros 5y ago
I doubt you'd be able to get much over 50%, given how often the audience there is couples on dates :P

KennyBlanken 5y ago

There are additional factors. Teslas are on average substantially newer than the average US passenger car fleet and thus have significantly more safety features and driver assistance tech, are better maintained, etc. If Tesla compared only to vehicles of similar age and class (Audi/BMW/Mercedes etc) their stats would be much less favorable.

Robotbeat 5y ago
People often save up especially for a Tesla (incorporating gas and maintenance savings in the price), including a lot of people who wouldn't be buying a BMW, so I'm not sure price would be the right metric there.
- beberlei 5y ago
  Parent does not include price as a metric, but cars of the same age and class, which probably have many of the same default extra safety features. Older cars might not even have ESC, they certainly don't have cameras that help you detect cars in blind angles and so on.
  - Robotbeat 5y ago
    “Class” here refers to pricing, does it not? Luxury car owners will be quick to point out that the Model 3 and Y are not “luxury” class even if the cost ranges aren’t far apart.
- ChuckNorris89 5y ago
  Are you saying just because more people are being financially irresponsible when buying Teslas, we should cease such comparisons?
  - Robotbeat 5y ago
    No, I’m saying that people incorporate a $10k price of gasoline into the price of the vehicle instead of paying for them separately as you would with a BMW.

noworld 5y ago

> more often This is what matters. If/when it becomes less often, the case will be made (i.e. driverless doesn't have to be perfect to be better).