5 ms·

Not even close, sadly. Consider New Zealand, Taiwan, and China: if you take extreme measures and eliminate all COVID, then there is no COVID. It doesn’t appear

by amluto 5y ago

Not even close, sadly. Consider New Zealand, Taiwan, and China: if you take extreme measures and eliminate all COVID, then there is no COVID. It doesn’t appear from nowhere. (Just like in 2018 there was no COVID.) On the other hand, if you eliminate half the transmission of a highly contagious disease, everyone may well still get it, and while you have flattened the curve, you haven’t actually saved many lives. For those who remember Chicken Pox, almost everyone got chicken pox. To the extend any NPIs reduced transmission (e.g. keeping kids out of school), the primary result was delaying chicken pox or avoiding major outbreaks, and delaying chicken pox may have been a bad thing. As a different analogy, if you have a Windows XP system in the Internet, it will get pwned. If you update it to Vista, you get a worse UI and it still gets pwned. Sometimes half measures are much less than half effective.

eli 5y ago
Wouldn't you MUCH rather get covid today than in April 2020?
- amluto 5y ago
  Yes. I’m not claiming that NPIs are useless. I’m saying that half an NPI may be vastly less than half as effective. I think the OP can speak for itself.
cassianoleal 5y ago
> if you eliminate half the transmission of a highly contagious disease, everyone may well still get it, and while you have flattened the curve, you haven’t actually saved many lives. Assuming all other things are equal in both cases, sure. In reality though, by flattening the curve we have avoided greater collapse of health systems, we got more time to understand better what works and what doesn't when fighting the disease, we got more vaccinated people, etc. These things combined might have saved a lot of lives. I'm not sure why delaying chicken pox may have been a bad thing, what do you mean by that?
- abakker 5y ago
  I agree that flattening the curve should have benefitted society and saved lives. Regarding chickenpox, it becomes more and more dangerous the later in life you catch it. Getting it as a 5yo is annoying. Getting it at 15 can be quite a bit more dangerous. getting it for the first time at 40 can be lethal.
  - cassianoleal 5y ago
    I see what you mean. How does that work out in reality though? There are always people in all those age groups in society and if you let the disease run amok, that just means the 40yo of now are more likely to catch it before there's a vaccine or better treatments, doesn't it? OTOH if you slow down the kids getting it, they will be less likely to spread it to the teens and middle-aged kids :D until those are available. i.e. pretty much the same, is it not? Disclaimer: I'm pulling those ideas out of my arse, I have no real data or knowlege to back my thoughts.
    - abakker 5y ago
      When I was kid, before the chickenpox vaccine, it was common practice to ensure your kids got it by intentionally exposing them. I guess our parents had all had it, so there was no risk of getting it again. Now we have a vaccine so I assume this doesn't happen anymore.
      - cassianoleal 5y ago
        Ah interesting. I didn't know that, but it does make sense. > I guess our parents had all had it, so there was no risk of getting it again. This is not the case with COVID though. Everyone is getting infected for the first time, and we're still unsure how long and how strong immunity-through-exposure is. In fact, there are multiple reports of people catching it multiple times (I know of a person who had it 5 times :-o ).
        nradov 5y ago
mikevm 5y ago
> if you take extreme measures and eliminate all COVID, then there is no COVID. This is false because COVID also has animal reservoirs. It will never get eradicated like polio or smallpox, which only had human reservoirs. It appears that in 2022 it is now finally understood that COVID-19 will not get eradicated, the vaccines do not prevent transmission or infection (in fact, the original RCT never even showed it -- it was just assumed!), and that cloth masks have much more limited effectiveness than initially assumed. Omicron is highly contagious (but much milder!) so it appears that almost everyone will get it eventually.
- manwe150 5y ago
  Nearly everyone will eventually be immune to it, but CDC data still is showing that the majority of vaccinated people will not get sick with it to get there.
- cobookman 5y ago
  > that cloth masks have much more limited effectiveness than initially assumed I recall multiple studies early on stating cloth masks were not effective and should be avoided if you have access to surgical or n95 masks. My impression is that the (US) government didn't want to nuisance this discussion as it'd only open further criticism of mask mandates.
- Izkata 5y ago
  > It will never get eradicated like polio or smallpox, which only had human reservoirs. Quick aside, polio hasn't been eradicated. Only smallpox and a cat virus I forget the name of.
chucksta 5y ago
Extreme measures would have to remain in place until the threat has been mitigated, which is not realistic because the world is not capable of taking equal measure like that on a global scale
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]

by amluto 5y ago

eli 5y ago

Wouldn't you MUCH rather get covid today than in April 2020?

amluto 5y ago
Yes. I’m not claiming that NPIs are useless. I’m saying that half an NPI may be vastly less than half as effective. I think the OP can speak for itself.

cassianoleal 5y ago

> if you eliminate half the transmission of a highly contagious disease, everyone may well still get it, and while you have flattened the curve, you haven’t actually saved many lives. Assuming all other things are equal in both cases, sure. In reality though, by flattening the curve we have avoided greater collapse of health systems, we got more time to understand better what works and what doesn't when fighting the disease, we got more vaccinated people, etc. These things combined might have saved a lot of lives. I'm not sure why delaying chicken pox may have been a bad thing, what do you mean by that?

abakker 5y ago
I agree that flattening the curve should have benefitted society and saved lives. Regarding chickenpox, it becomes more and more dangerous the later in life you catch it. Getting it as a 5yo is annoying. Getting it at 15 can be quite a bit more dangerous. getting it for the first time at 40 can be lethal.
- cassianoleal 5y ago
  I see what you mean. How does that work out in reality though? There are always people in all those age groups in society and if you let the disease run amok, that just means the 40yo of now are more likely to catch it before there's a vaccine or better treatments, doesn't it? OTOH if you slow down the kids getting it, they will be less likely to spread it to the teens and middle-aged kids :D until those are available. i.e. pretty much the same, is it not? Disclaimer: I'm pulling those ideas out of my arse, I have no real data or knowlege to back my thoughts.
  - abakker 5y ago
    When I was kid, before the chickenpox vaccine, it was common practice to ensure your kids got it by intentionally exposing them. I guess our parents had all had it, so there was no risk of getting it again. Now we have a vaccine so I assume this doesn't happen anymore.
    - cassianoleal 5y ago
      Ah interesting. I didn't know that, but it does make sense. > I guess our parents had all had it, so there was no risk of getting it again. This is not the case with COVID though. Everyone is getting infected for the first time, and we're still unsure how long and how strong immunity-through-exposure is. In fact, there are multiple reports of people catching it multiple times (I know of a person who had it 5 times :-o ).
      - nradov 5y ago

mikevm 5y ago

> if you take extreme measures and eliminate all COVID, then there is no COVID. This is false because COVID also has animal reservoirs. It will never get eradicated like polio or smallpox, which only had human reservoirs. It appears that in 2022 it is now finally understood that COVID-19 will not get eradicated, the vaccines do not prevent transmission or infection (in fact, the original RCT never even showed it -- it was just assumed!), and that cloth masks have much more limited effectiveness than initially assumed. Omicron is highly contagious (but much milder!) so it appears that almost everyone will get it eventually.

manwe150 5y ago
Nearly everyone will eventually be immune to it, but CDC data still is showing that the majority of vaccinated people will not get sick with it to get there.
cobookman 5y ago
> that cloth masks have much more limited effectiveness than initially assumed I recall multiple studies early on stating cloth masks were not effective and should be avoided if you have access to surgical or n95 masks. My impression is that the (US) government didn't want to nuisance this discussion as it'd only open further criticism of mask mandates.
Izkata 5y ago
> It will never get eradicated like polio or smallpox, which only had human reservoirs. Quick aside, polio hasn't been eradicated. Only smallpox and a cat virus I forget the name of.

chucksta 5y ago

Extreme measures would have to remain in place until the threat has been mitigated, which is not realistic because the world is not capable of taking equal measure like that on a global scale

deleted 5y ago

[deleted]