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We don't have to imagine, we already have an example of fully vaccinated population. Gibraltar: - vaccination: two doses >99%, boosted: 85% - cases: 145 (7 da

We don't have to imagine, we already have an example of fully vaccinated population. Gibraltar: - vaccination: two doses >99%, boosted: 85% - cases: 145 (7 day avg) Gibraltar population is 33k. This is pretty good example that vaccines can't stop the spread. With examples from other highly vaccinated countries (e.g. Portugal, Australia), it doesn't look it's a path to end covid. You should get vaccinated to improve your own chances, but taking it to protect others doesn't really work. > the harder the people who associated with antivax will push. Does your definition of antivax include people who are vaccinated but oppose mandates? Because I would fit that definition and don't consider myself antivax since I do recommend vaccination to people who didn't get it yet. With small difference that I don't want to force them. And one last question for those who propose mandates. When will mandates end? What happens after 6 months when you're no longer considered vaccinated? Do you subscribe to mandatory vaccination indefinitely?

empthought 5y ago
https://twitter.com/GibraltarGov/status/1488531136506646544 https://twitter.com/GibraltarGov/status/1488531136506646544 There are 119 new positive cases in Gibraltar today. 71 are vaccinated and 48 are unvaccinated. If vaccines didn't prevent transmission, one would expect that second number to be 10 or less given the base rate of vaccination.
- grujicd 5y ago
  The fact that covid managed to get to unvaccinated >1% population suggest that at least some of vax population are carriers, probably asymptomatic. It would be quite hard for these 1% to get infected otherwise. All I sad that vaccines can't stop the spread and it still looks like that. I didn't say they don't reduce it or that they're not beneficial otherwise. Personal anecdote time: I got covid from person who was fully vaccinated 2 months before and didn't have any symptoms. Btw. since this was second time for me, plus with vaccines in the mean time, it was like a very mild cold, one day of temperature and some coughing afterwards. Hm, numbers I'm googling for Gibraltar don't really add up - population 2021: 35.120, fully vaccinated: 40.722. One explanation would be that there are non-rezidents who are working there and got vaxed, while not counted as population.
  - empthought 5y ago
    Yes, it's why anyone citing Gibraltar for anything is intellectually dishonest. 15,000 people cross the border every day for work and other reasons. Re: your other point, no vaccine is 100% effective at "stopping" spread. Absolutely no vaccine is 100% effective. There is no qualitative difference between prevention and reduction. If it reduces spread, then by definition some nonzero number of potential infections were prevented.
    - grujicd 5y ago
      I cited Gibraltar as currently the only example of 99% vacc rate. No dishonest thoughts there - I didn't know about 15k people moving every day. Ok, next bigger countries on vacc list: - UAE: population 9.3m, 94% fully, 2400 cases 7-day avg - Portugal: population 10.3m, 89% fully, 55k cases 7-day avg Especially Portugal's cases don't support that 90% vacc stops spread in any meaningful way.
      - dekhn 5y ago
        Even if your thoughts or intents weren't dishonest, it looks like you're just sort of sorting by vax rate and then citing the case rate. Given that you made the mistake with Gibraltar, why should we trust what you're showing us, since it looks like you're cherry picking and misunderstanding stats?
        grujicd 5y ago
        That's exactly what I'm doing. Isn't that the best way to see how high vaccination affects spread? You're free to present different numbers, but please don't cite anything pre-Omicron since it's not relevant any more. Once more, my case is that current vaccines are not a way to stop spread and therefore vaccinating low-risk population like kids won't protect the elders. I fully support vaccination for self benefits. As I did for myself.
        dekhn 5y ago
dekhn 5y ago
Please don't cite nations with 33K population as evidence of global public health efficacy. Especially if 50% of the people in country are from outside the country on a daily basis. Focus instead on large nations. I'm not sure what the detailed semantics of "is pro-vax but anti-mandate an anti-vax" position. There's a distinct difference from "anybody should be able to get the vax to protect themselves" and "we should impose mandates because vaccines are most effective when 95+% of the population takes them." If the latter were an extremely strong scientific position (IE, if there was a guarantee of herd immunity at 95% rate) then I think it would be a slam dunk. I believe the mandates would be done when their effectivity is over. It's not like the people who want to impose these things are doing it because they enjoy exerting power over people. Anyway, there weren't any real large scale mandates forcing people to get vaccinated, so it's kind of moot?
- grujicd 5y ago
  There is a mandate now, in Austria, compulsory for anyone over 18. It would be interesting to compare outcomes in few months with Denmark, which went the completely opposite way.
  - dekhn 5y ago
    If you are not a fulltime medical professional I would recommend not armchairing these things.

empthought 5y ago

https://twitter.com/GibraltarGov/status/1488531136506646544 https://twitter.com/GibraltarGov/status/1488531136506646544 There are 119 new positive cases in Gibraltar today. 71 are vaccinated and 48 are unvaccinated. If vaccines didn't prevent transmission, one would expect that second number to be 10 or less given the base rate of vaccination.

grujicd 5y ago
The fact that covid managed to get to unvaccinated >1% population suggest that at least some of vax population are carriers, probably asymptomatic. It would be quite hard for these 1% to get infected otherwise. All I sad that vaccines can't stop the spread and it still looks like that. I didn't say they don't reduce it or that they're not beneficial otherwise. Personal anecdote time: I got covid from person who was fully vaccinated 2 months before and didn't have any symptoms. Btw. since this was second time for me, plus with vaccines in the mean time, it was like a very mild cold, one day of temperature and some coughing afterwards. Hm, numbers I'm googling for Gibraltar don't really add up - population 2021: 35.120, fully vaccinated: 40.722. One explanation would be that there are non-rezidents who are working there and got vaxed, while not counted as population.
- empthought 5y ago
  Yes, it's why anyone citing Gibraltar for anything is intellectually dishonest. 15,000 people cross the border every day for work and other reasons. Re: your other point, no vaccine is 100% effective at "stopping" spread. Absolutely no vaccine is 100% effective. There is no qualitative difference between prevention and reduction. If it reduces spread, then by definition some nonzero number of potential infections were prevented.
  - grujicd 5y ago
    I cited Gibraltar as currently the only example of 99% vacc rate. No dishonest thoughts there - I didn't know about 15k people moving every day. Ok, next bigger countries on vacc list: - UAE: population 9.3m, 94% fully, 2400 cases 7-day avg - Portugal: population 10.3m, 89% fully, 55k cases 7-day avg Especially Portugal's cases don't support that 90% vacc stops spread in any meaningful way.
    - dekhn 5y ago
      Even if your thoughts or intents weren't dishonest, it looks like you're just sort of sorting by vax rate and then citing the case rate. Given that you made the mistake with Gibraltar, why should we trust what you're showing us, since it looks like you're cherry picking and misunderstanding stats?
      - grujicd 5y ago
        That's exactly what I'm doing. Isn't that the best way to see how high vaccination affects spread? You're free to present different numbers, but please don't cite anything pre-Omicron since it's not relevant any more. Once more, my case is that current vaccines are not a way to stop spread and therefore vaccinating low-risk population like kids won't protect the elders. I fully support vaccination for self benefits. As I did for myself.
        dekhn 5y ago

dekhn 5y ago

Please don't cite nations with 33K population as evidence of global public health efficacy. Especially if 50% of the people in country are from outside the country on a daily basis. Focus instead on large nations. I'm not sure what the detailed semantics of "is pro-vax but anti-mandate an anti-vax" position. There's a distinct difference from "anybody should be able to get the vax to protect themselves" and "we should impose mandates because vaccines are most effective when 95+% of the population takes them." If the latter were an extremely strong scientific position (IE, if there was a guarantee of herd immunity at 95% rate) then I think it would be a slam dunk. I believe the mandates would be done when their effectivity is over. It's not like the people who want to impose these things are doing it because they enjoy exerting power over people. Anyway, there weren't any real large scale mandates forcing people to get vaccinated, so it's kind of moot?

grujicd 5y ago
There is a mandate now, in Austria, compulsory for anyone over 18. It would be interesting to compare outcomes in few months with Denmark, which went the completely opposite way.
- dekhn 5y ago
  If you are not a fulltime medical professional I would recommend not armchairing these things.