3 ms·

You have to take into account peak usage and depreciation. Cars are typically only discarded once they hit a certain distance. No matter if the car is a taxi o

You have to take into account peak usage and depreciation. Cars are typically only discarded once they hit a certain distance. No matter if the car is a taxi or a personal car, it will be discarded after the same number of miles. You also need to buy enough cars for the worst possible scenario, which is the peakiest of peaks. Unlike a personal car, robotaxis will also be replaced as soon as it economically efficient to do so, whereas cars are typically eventually driven past the point at which they are economically viable by someone. I do not believe there will be a significant decrease in car manifacture. The only way it could be is if instead of robotaxis, we built robobuses that carry 5-6 people on average.

pixl97 5y ago
>No matter if the car is a taxi or a personal car, it will be discarded after the same number of miles. What? I'd disagree with just about everything there. In general fleet vehicles go much farther because of regular maintenance. The other factor that must be taken in effect is will the rate of accidents that total cars decrease, if so, the average total mileage will increase.
- sudosysgen 5y ago
  The decreased rate of accidents is true. A newly built car can be expected to be retired after 250-300k miles. Rental car companies seem to be trying to sell their cars after around 60k miles : https://www.wsj.com/articles/rental-cars-with-higher-mileage-populate-lots-1377731770 https://www.wsj.com/articles/rental-cars-with-higher-mileage...
qeternity 5y ago
> No matter if the car is a taxi or a personal car, it will be discarded after the same number of miles. Is this actually true? My personal anecdata would suggest that most passenger vehicles are not driven nearly the number of miles that a taxi or commercial vehicle are driven. A quick google suggests passenger vehicles are typically salvaged at 100-150k miles whereas an average taxi might do 500k or more before retirement.
- nradov 5y ago
  You're way off. Average passenger vehicles in the US are scrapped closer to 200K miles. Of course there's a lot of variation by state because vehicles driven in winter on salted roads rust out much faster.
  - rsj_hn 5y ago
    That number has been increasing every year, so the OP may simply be remembering an earlier number. We didn't use to keep cars around for so long but they have gotten more reliable (and rust-proofing has made big advances). It will soon be 250K.
    - qeternity 5y ago
      The latest comprehensive figure I could find was a 2006 NHTSA report which found the average passenger vehicle was scrapped at 152,137 miles. It may have gone up, but I haven't found a more recently number.
      - rsj_hn 5y ago
        2006 was a while ago, so that sounds about right. Here's an article from 2012: https://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/18/automobiles/as-cars-are-kept-longer-200000-is-new-100000.html?_r=2&ref=business&pagewanted=all& https://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/18/automobiles/as-cars-are-k... Here's an article from 2018: "a typical passenger car should last 200,000 or more miles" https://www.aarp.org/auto/trends-lifestyle/info-2018/how-long-do-cars-last.html https://www.aarp.org/auto/trends-lifestyle/info-2018/how-lon...
- sudosysgen 5y ago
  The average car in the US seems to be 12 : https://www.wsj.com/articles/average-u-s-vehicle-age-hits-record-12-years-11623680640 https://www.wsj.com/articles/average-u-s-vehicle-age-hits-re... And the average yearly mileage in the US is around 13.5k, yielding an average mileage of 173k miles. It is incredibly unlikely that the average car is salvaged at 100-150k miles. 200k+ miles is more like it. This number will also increase as vehicles produced recently have much higher durability, while the 16 year old tail-end is dragging down personal cars. I can't find a great source, but it seems for example USF only expects 85k miles out of a car, for example: https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.usf.edu/administrative-services/documents/asbc-resources-field-equipment-replacement.pdf&sa=U&ved=2ahUKEwjyjdvMr9z1AhVFZN8KHQWiBi84ChAWegQIARAC&usg=AOvVaw1-zOpkJ1xtmLeW3f3uXjwr https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.usf.edu/administrat... Taxis are an exception with around 210k average mileage, but that's because they are individually owned. Rental cars seem to be retired at around 60k miles : https://www.wsj.com/articles/rental-cars-with-higher-mileage-populate-lots-1377731770 https://www.wsj.com/articles/rental-cars-with-higher-mileage... It doesn't make sense commercially to operate a vehicle long after its warranty ends. You risk losing revenue when the car breaks down, and you can expect upwards of 1000$/year in repairs and increased insurance costs as an extra. It makes more sense to sell the car shortly after the warranty ends, recoup 50% of the costs, and buy a new one.

pixl97 5y ago

>No matter if the car is a taxi or a personal car, it will be discarded after the same number of miles. What? I'd disagree with just about everything there. In general fleet vehicles go much farther because of regular maintenance. The other factor that must be taken in effect is will the rate of accidents that total cars decrease, if so, the average total mileage will increase.

sudosysgen 5y ago
The decreased rate of accidents is true. A newly built car can be expected to be retired after 250-300k miles. Rental car companies seem to be trying to sell their cars after around 60k miles : https://www.wsj.com/articles/rental-cars-with-higher-mileage-populate-lots-1377731770 https://www.wsj.com/articles/rental-cars-with-higher-mileage...

qeternity 5y ago

> No matter if the car is a taxi or a personal car, it will be discarded after the same number of miles. Is this actually true? My personal anecdata would suggest that most passenger vehicles are not driven nearly the number of miles that a taxi or commercial vehicle are driven. A quick google suggests passenger vehicles are typically salvaged at 100-150k miles whereas an average taxi might do 500k or more before retirement.

nradov 5y ago
You're way off. Average passenger vehicles in the US are scrapped closer to 200K miles. Of course there's a lot of variation by state because vehicles driven in winter on salted roads rust out much faster.
- rsj_hn 5y ago
  That number has been increasing every year, so the OP may simply be remembering an earlier number. We didn't use to keep cars around for so long but they have gotten more reliable (and rust-proofing has made big advances). It will soon be 250K.
  - qeternity 5y ago
    The latest comprehensive figure I could find was a 2006 NHTSA report which found the average passenger vehicle was scrapped at 152,137 miles. It may have gone up, but I haven't found a more recently number.
    - rsj_hn 5y ago
      2006 was a while ago, so that sounds about right. Here's an article from 2012: https://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/18/automobiles/as-cars-are-kept-longer-200000-is-new-100000.html?_r=2&ref=business&pagewanted=all& https://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/18/automobiles/as-cars-are-k... Here's an article from 2018: "a typical passenger car should last 200,000 or more miles" https://www.aarp.org/auto/trends-lifestyle/info-2018/how-long-do-cars-last.html https://www.aarp.org/auto/trends-lifestyle/info-2018/how-lon...
sudosysgen 5y ago
The average car in the US seems to be 12 : https://www.wsj.com/articles/average-u-s-vehicle-age-hits-record-12-years-11623680640 https://www.wsj.com/articles/average-u-s-vehicle-age-hits-re... And the average yearly mileage in the US is around 13.5k, yielding an average mileage of 173k miles. It is incredibly unlikely that the average car is salvaged at 100-150k miles. 200k+ miles is more like it. This number will also increase as vehicles produced recently have much higher durability, while the 16 year old tail-end is dragging down personal cars. I can't find a great source, but it seems for example USF only expects 85k miles out of a car, for example: https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.usf.edu/administrative-services/documents/asbc-resources-field-equipment-replacement.pdf&sa=U&ved=2ahUKEwjyjdvMr9z1AhVFZN8KHQWiBi84ChAWegQIARAC&usg=AOvVaw1-zOpkJ1xtmLeW3f3uXjwr https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.usf.edu/administrat... Taxis are an exception with around 210k average mileage, but that's because they are individually owned. Rental cars seem to be retired at around 60k miles : https://www.wsj.com/articles/rental-cars-with-higher-mileage-populate-lots-1377731770 https://www.wsj.com/articles/rental-cars-with-higher-mileage... It doesn't make sense commercially to operate a vehicle long after its warranty ends. You risk losing revenue when the car breaks down, and you can expect upwards of 1000$/year in repairs and increased insurance costs as an extra. It makes more sense to sell the car shortly after the warranty ends, recoup 50% of the costs, and buy a new one.