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Is anyone here concerned about an eventual "great salary reset" driven by remote work? Companies don't need to cover Bay Area CoL because they can get people fr

Is anyone here concerned about an eventual "great salary reset" driven by remote work? Companies don't need to cover Bay Area CoL because they can get people from the midwest to do the work, so avg salaries go down. Then, they can get Canadians to do the work, avg salaries go down again. Then, they'll get Chilean software engineers to do the work, and avg salaries go down even more. In the short term, we're having a fun little arbitrage event by working remotely with the top salaries, but why would that continue to last in 5+ year timeframes? Of course if you like in person work it won't be an issue, but I don't plan on being in an office for the rest of my life.

Hermitian909 5y ago
I think it will vary based on where you are in the talent pool. Tech talent distribution is tri-modal [0]. The demand for the kind of people who can comfortably be part of the rightmost peak (and even moreso, its right tail) is increasing rapidly. As tech gets better the leverage high performance individuals have gets bigger, not smaller. I'm less hopeful for people in the leftmost peak or middle peaks. For decades tech has been slowly eating its low-end. Think of all the webmasters of the 90s made obsolete by sites like Squarespace, the work has more or less been completely deskilled. I think that trend will continue. [0] https://blog.pragmaticengineer.com/software-engineering-salaries-in-the-netherlands-and-europe/ https://blog.pragmaticengineer.com/software-engineering-sala...
- 1270018080 5y ago
  I feel like that article just affirmed my position though. An Uber job that would've been $400k in SF is now $250k in NL. You might think "Wow Group 3 is growing, good for us workers," but the absolute peak of Group 3 is falling.
  - Hermitian909 5y ago
    Top SF pay is increasing faster than 5 years ago, not slower. The same appears to be true in NL. My interpretation is that NL group 3 salaries are going towards SF but are kept lower by the lack of a local middle market and the various difficulties pulling in devs from a smaller country in a different time zone from most big players.
  - comp_throw7 5y ago
    Yeah, as the other reply said, that 400k L5a (Senior I) Uber job in SF is now paying 580k first year & ~520k/year annualized over 4 years (increased stock grants, large sign-on bonuses, front-loaded vesting). Amazon increased the top of their mid-level payband by ~100k and the top of their senior payband by ~200k. 500k/year is the new "target" senior comp at FAANG & co (where previously 350-400k was what you were looking for). The international numbers are playing catch-up but it's not really slowing things down very much in the US.
deleted 5y ago
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the_gipsy 5y ago
Sell that million dollar Bay Are house and move somewhere better but less expensive. Don't worry.
- syshum 5y ago
  In the 90's they said "learn the code" when globalization costs people their jobs I thought that response about ignorant... However this new method of just "move" is even more ignorant, you can not move your way in to a low enough cost of living to compete with nations that pay below US min wages.... This is doubly true when there is a huge push to increase those minimum wages... So Learn to code from the 90's has become if you do not like it leave... nice
  - TheGigaChad 5y ago
deleted 5y ago
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jjeaff 5y ago
While having more supply will definitely lower rates, I think there has been a lot of pushback on lowering salaries for people who decide to move to lower col areas. Enough pushback that I have heard of several big companies reversing that policy.

Hermitian909 5y ago

I think it will vary based on where you are in the talent pool. Tech talent distribution is tri-modal [0]. The demand for the kind of people who can comfortably be part of the rightmost peak (and even moreso, its right tail) is increasing rapidly. As tech gets better the leverage high performance individuals have gets bigger, not smaller. I'm less hopeful for people in the leftmost peak or middle peaks. For decades tech has been slowly eating its low-end. Think of all the webmasters of the 90s made obsolete by sites like Squarespace, the work has more or less been completely deskilled. I think that trend will continue. [0] https://blog.pragmaticengineer.com/software-engineering-salaries-in-the-netherlands-and-europe/ https://blog.pragmaticengineer.com/software-engineering-sala...

1270018080 5y ago
I feel like that article just affirmed my position though. An Uber job that would've been $400k in SF is now $250k in NL. You might think "Wow Group 3 is growing, good for us workers," but the absolute peak of Group 3 is falling.
- Hermitian909 5y ago
  Top SF pay is increasing faster than 5 years ago, not slower. The same appears to be true in NL. My interpretation is that NL group 3 salaries are going towards SF but are kept lower by the lack of a local middle market and the various difficulties pulling in devs from a smaller country in a different time zone from most big players.
- comp_throw7 5y ago
  Yeah, as the other reply said, that 400k L5a (Senior I) Uber job in SF is now paying 580k first year & ~520k/year annualized over 4 years (increased stock grants, large sign-on bonuses, front-loaded vesting). Amazon increased the top of their mid-level payband by ~100k and the top of their senior payband by ~200k. 500k/year is the new "target" senior comp at FAANG & co (where previously 350-400k was what you were looking for). The international numbers are playing catch-up but it's not really slowing things down very much in the US.

deleted 5y ago

[deleted]

the_gipsy 5y ago

Sell that million dollar Bay Are house and move somewhere better but less expensive. Don't worry.

syshum 5y ago
In the 90's they said "learn the code" when globalization costs people their jobs I thought that response about ignorant... However this new method of just "move" is even more ignorant, you can not move your way in to a low enough cost of living to compete with nations that pay below US min wages.... This is doubly true when there is a huge push to increase those minimum wages... So Learn to code from the 90's has become if you do not like it leave... nice
- TheGigaChad 5y ago

deleted 5y ago

[deleted]

jjeaff 5y ago

While having more supply will definitely lower rates, I think there has been a lot of pushback on lowering salaries for people who decide to move to lower col areas. Enough pushback that I have heard of several big companies reversing that policy.