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Kyiv Embassy Warns U.S. Citizens to Consider Departing Country 'Now'

33 points by underscore_ku 5y ago

jakozaur 5y ago
I wonder whether Afghanistan experience encourage embassies to voice this concerns. Also thinking whether this has impact on geo-politics. Does it encourage war as hints that USA gave up or the opposite, you are preparing for the worst and ready to push back.
- aerostable_slug 5y ago
  Impact on geopolitics? Yes: the administration is saying "We really don't want to have to send the Marines into a fight we want no part of in order to save you, so get out now." The American troops being sent into the region are there to keep things from spilling into the Northern Baltic NATO countries. Biden has been very clear that the United States will not overtly & militarily act to protect Ukraine's sovereignty, and that's an easy message to maintain so long as we don't have troops in Ukraine picking up stranded Americans.
  - treeman79 5y ago
    After Russia takes over Ukraine then who is next. Maybe a nibble of Poland. No reason to believe Russia will stop so long as counties signaling intent to let them continue.
    - AnimalMuppet 5y ago
      Poland is a member of NATO. That's a signal of not letting Russia continue.
      - lcedp 5y ago
        Budapest Memorandum has been broken (repeatedly). Article 5 is nothing but words which could be broken in the same way. Let's consider Article 5. It states that in case of armed attack each party "will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area." "assist .. by taking .. such action as it deems necessary". Surely, some parties could claim they don't deem necessary sending their help into a fight they don't want to be a part of.
mc32 5y ago
Ukraine, on the other hand, claims Americans are safer in Kyiv than LA[1]. I don't know who is correct, but it does seem propaganda is flying in from multiple directions and it's hard to ascertain the ground truth. Given all the previous claims that turned out to be lies (WMD in Iraq, No bombing of the Syrian dam, etc.), it's hard to provide benefit of doubt. [1]https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10436705/Americans-safer-Kyiv-LA-source-close-Zelensky-slams-Biden-evacuating-Ukraine.html https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10436705/Americans-...
- Mikeb85 5y ago
  American/Western propaganda is pretty funny to watch in action...
  - mc32 5y ago
    Russia and China are very capable masters of misinformation -of that there is little doubt. On the other hand the career government officials and others in government have had their fill with misinformation about Covid origins, "Russia-gate", Syrian dam bombings, etc.
    - pyronik19 5y ago
      Add Iraq WMD, and any number of lies. Anyone who's not looking at this next gift to the MIC with some skepticism would be a fool.
- AnimalMuppet 5y ago
  Ukraine may be right... today. But tomorrow may be very different. And Ukraine may have their own bias here. They may figure that if there are a bunch of Americans in Ukraine, that may increase Putin's hesitation, or give the US more incentive to intervene. They're an asset that Ukraine may want to keep.
  - bigodbiel 5y ago
    This is a very nice assessment. I interpreted it as preventing foreign capital flight and trying to calm public sentiment (eg preventing empty store shelves) But the “human shield” hypothesis is even more plausible!
mercy_dude 5y ago
“In great empires the people who live in the capital, and in the provinces remote from the scene of action, feel, many of them, scarce any inconveniency from the war; but enjoy, at their ease, the amusement of reading in the newspapers the exploits of their own fleets and armies. To them this amusement compensates the small difference between the taxes which they pay on account of the war, and those which they had been accustomed to pay in time of peace. They are commonly dissatisfied with the return of peace, which puts an end to their amusement, and to a thousand visionary hopes of conquest and national glory from a longer continuance of the war.” - Adam Smith (The Wealth of Nation)
- Hokusai 5y ago
  In 2022, to find entertainment is extremely easy. The challenge is to be able to get bored. I can imagine that being different in the past.
  - 0xmarcin 5y ago
    There is a huge difference between say a movie, a game and a real conflict. I usually only read books but for the last few months I was almost compulsively following news about what happens in Belarus and Ukraine (I am Pole BTW, my countryman don't like Russia very much). I can say, taking as an example the Polish-Belarusian border "conflict", that it makes a real difference if something happens near your country and when, in the worst case, you may even be involved... But you may be right for US folks. They can watch the "show" from the safe distance, and it will probably (even in case of war) be a news for a 3 or 4 weeks just as it was with pull out from Afghanistan.
- koheripbal 5y ago
  The prospect of nuclear war changes this entirely. I am not entertained by the prospect of dealing with radioactive fallout and starvation.

33 points by underscore_ku 5y ago

I wonder whether Afghanistan experience encourage embassies to voice this concerns. Also thinking whether this has impact on geo-politics. Does it encourage war as hints that USA gave up or the opposite, you are preparing for the worst and ready to push back.

aerostable_slug 5y ago
Impact on geopolitics? Yes: the administration is saying "We really don't want to have to send the Marines into a fight we want no part of in order to save you, so get out now." The American troops being sent into the region are there to keep things from spilling into the Northern Baltic NATO countries. Biden has been very clear that the United States will not overtly & militarily act to protect Ukraine's sovereignty, and that's an easy message to maintain so long as we don't have troops in Ukraine picking up stranded Americans.
- treeman79 5y ago
  After Russia takes over Ukraine then who is next. Maybe a nibble of Poland. No reason to believe Russia will stop so long as counties signaling intent to let them continue.
  - AnimalMuppet 5y ago
    Poland is a member of NATO. That's a signal of not letting Russia continue.
    - lcedp 5y ago
      Budapest Memorandum has been broken (repeatedly). Article 5 is nothing but words which could be broken in the same way. Let's consider Article 5. It states that in case of armed attack each party "will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area." "assist .. by taking .. such action as it deems necessary". Surely, some parties could claim they don't deem necessary sending their help into a fight they don't want to be a part of.

mc32 5y ago

Ukraine, on the other hand, claims Americans are safer in Kyiv than LA[1]. I don't know who is correct, but it does seem propaganda is flying in from multiple directions and it's hard to ascertain the ground truth. Given all the previous claims that turned out to be lies (WMD in Iraq, No bombing of the Syrian dam, etc.), it's hard to provide benefit of doubt. [1]https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10436705/Americans-safer-Kyiv-LA-source-close-Zelensky-slams-Biden-evacuating-Ukraine.html https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10436705/Americans-...

Mikeb85 5y ago
American/Western propaganda is pretty funny to watch in action...
- mc32 5y ago
  Russia and China are very capable masters of misinformation -of that there is little doubt. On the other hand the career government officials and others in government have had their fill with misinformation about Covid origins, "Russia-gate", Syrian dam bombings, etc.
  - pyronik19 5y ago
    Add Iraq WMD, and any number of lies. Anyone who's not looking at this next gift to the MIC with some skepticism would be a fool.
AnimalMuppet 5y ago
Ukraine may be right... today. But tomorrow may be very different. And Ukraine may have their own bias here. They may figure that if there are a bunch of Americans in Ukraine, that may increase Putin's hesitation, or give the US more incentive to intervene. They're an asset that Ukraine may want to keep.
- bigodbiel 5y ago
  This is a very nice assessment. I interpreted it as preventing foreign capital flight and trying to calm public sentiment (eg preventing empty store shelves) But the “human shield” hypothesis is even more plausible!

mercy_dude 5y ago

“In great empires the people who live in the capital, and in the provinces remote from the scene of action, feel, many of them, scarce any inconveniency from the war; but enjoy, at their ease, the amusement of reading in the newspapers the exploits of their own fleets and armies. To them this amusement compensates the small difference between the taxes which they pay on account of the war, and those which they had been accustomed to pay in time of peace. They are commonly dissatisfied with the return of peace, which puts an end to their amusement, and to a thousand visionary hopes of conquest and national glory from a longer continuance of the war.” - Adam Smith (The Wealth of Nation)

Hokusai 5y ago
In 2022, to find entertainment is extremely easy. The challenge is to be able to get bored. I can imagine that being different in the past.
- 0xmarcin 5y ago
  There is a huge difference between say a movie, a game and a real conflict. I usually only read books but for the last few months I was almost compulsively following news about what happens in Belarus and Ukraine (I am Pole BTW, my countryman don't like Russia very much). I can say, taking as an example the Polish-Belarusian border "conflict", that it makes a real difference if something happens near your country and when, in the worst case, you may even be involved... But you may be right for US folks. They can watch the "show" from the safe distance, and it will probably (even in case of war) be a news for a 3 or 4 weeks just as it was with pull out from Afghanistan.
koheripbal 5y ago
The prospect of nuclear war changes this entirely. I am not entertained by the prospect of dealing with radioactive fallout and starvation.