7 ms·

Are we transitioning to post-scarcity economy?

deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
crowbahr 5y ago
No, and we're nowhere near post-scarcity. We're able to foresee the end of some forms of scarcity, like basic food insecurity, but there's still no reasonable expectation that the economy becomes post scarcity in any way shape or form within the next 100 years.
- dillondoyle 5y ago
  Not to be a doomsday troll, but climate change seems to throw a big question mark in terms of basic food security especially non-industrialized. See Afghanistan drought right now. I'm sure we can solve those problems with enough money and tech, but we could do that right now and feed millions but we choose not too.
  - crowbahr 5y ago
    I agree with you on climate change causing issues with scarcity, I just wanted to point out the basics around food scarcity is about the closest we could reasonably see a fix arriving within the next 100 years. Durable fixes to food scarcity could come even in drought conditions through advanced genetic editing techniques, for example. It's not infeasible to imagine that being possible within the next century. Now whether or not we'll do it is an entirely different question.
jacquesm 5y ago
In some parts of the world, for some income brackets, yes. But for ordinary mortals, no.
chongli 5y ago
No such thing as a post-scarcity economy, even in the fictional universe of Star Trek. When you have replicators that can produce any food or clothing or small pieces of equipment you need, you end up bartering over planets, star systems, or wormholes [1]. [1] https://memory-alpha.fandom.com/wiki/The_Price_(episode) https://memory-alpha.fandom.com/wiki/The_Price_(episode)
- gitfan86 5y ago
  The point is that If basic food and clothing and shelter and internet and housing were free, the economy would be very different.
  - bryanlarsen 5y ago
    But would it? In most of the developed world health care is free, and it's more expensive than food, clothing & internet, and almost as expensive as shelter.
    - trcarney 5y ago
      health care is not free anywhere, you either pay for it at the point of use or through taxes.
      - bryanlarsen 5y ago
        Health care in the developed world ex-US is free in the same sense as the food, clothing and housing is free in gitfan86's comment I was referring to.
    - DarylZero 5y ago
      Yes, homelessness is the whip of modern capitalism, if you remove it, then the entire foundation of behavioral control is gone.
  - visarga 5y ago
    Even with perfect automation you'd still need to provide the raw materials, that means it can't be free. Unless you recycle perfectly.
bryanlarsen 5y ago
Even Star Trek TNG didn't have a true post-scarcity economy. At least 5 things were key parameters in their economy and were scarce: - dilithium crystals, which were used to power ships, and thus also powered the replicators - Enterprise class ships were definitely scarce/precious - labour - land, especially on Earth - hand-made goods STTNG didn't have a money economy. That doesn't mean they were post-scarcity. The closest analogy on today's Earth would be the unmetered water connections that some towns have. Just because the water isn't metered doesn't mean that the water supply is unlimited.
- beepbooptheory 5y ago
  It's just a little funny to say an essentially communist society has a scarcity of labor... It's like yes, that's kinda the point! They often note on the show itself that it is in fact replicator tech itself that sealed the deal for their era of post-scarcity, so yeah, that would imply some kind of scarcity in handmade goods. I think when people generally talk about "post-scarcity" it isn't that literally everything that could possibly exist is plentiful, at your fingertips, its more talking about the things we find scarce now (housing, food) being plentiful.
  - bryanlarsen 5y ago
    By that definition we already live in a post-scarcity economy. Food & housing are extremely plentiful in the US. We consume over 3600 calories per person, and waste a similar amount. Livestock eat over 10,000 calories per person. We have over 800 square feet of living space per capita.
    - beepbooptheory 5y ago
      Ok sure but all those things are still subject to whatever artificial scarcity the market needs in order to survive, which is not the case in Star Trek. The fact that there is no money in that world is not a byproduct, it is the whole thing. Whatever is scarce or not follows from that, not the other way around. Granted, especially as you get later on, star trek is not the best at realizing its original conceit. But I choose to believe!
Comevius 5y ago
We are running out of everything, fresh water, energy, sand, soil, and our food production and distribution chains are unsustainable and quite fragile. This century long bull run managed to offset extreme poverty, but it destroyed the biosphere as a result, and left us with nothing to work with. The world soon will be a big spiral of blood as we fight each other for what's left. TLDR: No, we are not headed for a post-scarcity economy.

deleted 5y ago

[deleted]

No, and we're nowhere near post-scarcity. We're able to foresee the end of some forms of scarcity, like basic food insecurity, but there's still no reasonable expectation that the economy becomes post scarcity in any way shape or form within the next 100 years.

dillondoyle 5y ago
Not to be a doomsday troll, but climate change seems to throw a big question mark in terms of basic food security especially non-industrialized. See Afghanistan drought right now. I'm sure we can solve those problems with enough money and tech, but we could do that right now and feed millions but we choose not too.
- crowbahr 5y ago
  I agree with you on climate change causing issues with scarcity, I just wanted to point out the basics around food scarcity is about the closest we could reasonably see a fix arriving within the next 100 years. Durable fixes to food scarcity could come even in drought conditions through advanced genetic editing techniques, for example. It's not infeasible to imagine that being possible within the next century. Now whether or not we'll do it is an entirely different question.

jacquesm 5y ago

In some parts of the world, for some income brackets, yes. But for ordinary mortals, no.

chongli 5y ago

No such thing as a post-scarcity economy, even in the fictional universe of Star Trek. When you have replicators that can produce any food or clothing or small pieces of equipment you need, you end up bartering over planets, star systems, or wormholes [1]. [1] https://memory-alpha.fandom.com/wiki/The_Price_(episode) https://memory-alpha.fandom.com/wiki/The_Price_(episode)

gitfan86 5y ago
The point is that If basic food and clothing and shelter and internet and housing were free, the economy would be very different.
- bryanlarsen 5y ago
  But would it? In most of the developed world health care is free, and it's more expensive than food, clothing & internet, and almost as expensive as shelter.
  - trcarney 5y ago
    health care is not free anywhere, you either pay for it at the point of use or through taxes.
    - bryanlarsen 5y ago
      Health care in the developed world ex-US is free in the same sense as the food, clothing and housing is free in gitfan86's comment I was referring to.
  - DarylZero 5y ago
    Yes, homelessness is the whip of modern capitalism, if you remove it, then the entire foundation of behavioral control is gone.
- visarga 5y ago
  Even with perfect automation you'd still need to provide the raw materials, that means it can't be free. Unless you recycle perfectly.

bryanlarsen 5y ago

Even Star Trek TNG didn't have a true post-scarcity economy. At least 5 things were key parameters in their economy and were scarce: - dilithium crystals, which were used to power ships, and thus also powered the replicators - Enterprise class ships were definitely scarce/precious - labour - land, especially on Earth - hand-made goods STTNG didn't have a money economy. That doesn't mean they were post-scarcity. The closest analogy on today's Earth would be the unmetered water connections that some towns have. Just because the water isn't metered doesn't mean that the water supply is unlimited.

beepbooptheory 5y ago
It's just a little funny to say an essentially communist society has a scarcity of labor... It's like yes, that's kinda the point! They often note on the show itself that it is in fact replicator tech itself that sealed the deal for their era of post-scarcity, so yeah, that would imply some kind of scarcity in handmade goods. I think when people generally talk about "post-scarcity" it isn't that literally everything that could possibly exist is plentiful, at your fingertips, its more talking about the things we find scarce now (housing, food) being plentiful.
- bryanlarsen 5y ago
  By that definition we already live in a post-scarcity economy. Food & housing are extremely plentiful in the US. We consume over 3600 calories per person, and waste a similar amount. Livestock eat over 10,000 calories per person. We have over 800 square feet of living space per capita.
  - beepbooptheory 5y ago
    Ok sure but all those things are still subject to whatever artificial scarcity the market needs in order to survive, which is not the case in Star Trek. The fact that there is no money in that world is not a byproduct, it is the whole thing. Whatever is scarce or not follows from that, not the other way around. Granted, especially as you get later on, star trek is not the best at realizing its original conceit. But I choose to believe!

Comevius 5y ago

We are running out of everything, fresh water, energy, sand, soil, and our food production and distribution chains are unsustainable and quite fragile. This century long bull run managed to offset extreme poverty, but it destroyed the biosphere as a result, and left us with nothing to work with. The world soon will be a big spiral of blood as we fight each other for what's left. TLDR: No, we are not headed for a post-scarcity economy.