4 ms·

There should be a way to bet (short) against “projects” or products, not the whole company. When they hyped about Watson Health, I “knew” it will fail.

cuteboy19 5y ago
Sometimes companies use their failed or loss making products to help promote their successful products. YouTube is a prime example
- frosted-flakes 5y ago
  What failed/loss-making products is Google using to promote YouTube?
  - donkarma 5y ago
    you think YouTube is profitable?
    - colinmhayes 5y ago
      Yes, I think youtube is making billions of dollars a year. Youtube's revenue was $25 billion last year. It's a mature product. You don't think it's making money?
      - mardifoufs 5y ago
        Google still doesn't release the profit figures for youtube, only revenue. Even the revenue figure was a secret until 2--3 years ago, so it was probably not that high. If youtube was very profitable, I'm not sure why Google would hide it in its earnings since they almost always try to show how they aren't exclusively dependent on their search ad business. I'm not saying youtube does not make any profit at this point, but if it wasn't tiny there's no reason for them not to talk about it.
        brendoelfrendo 5y ago
        I mean, the opposite is also true, isn't it? If Google's search ad revenue was going down while YouTube ad revenue was going up, I feel like Google would want to keep that a secret so that people don't realize that search ads are shrinking in relevance. Basically, I don't see that Google has any incentive to break out its profits by line of business unless someone forces them to. They're better off if you just look at a black box of ad revenue and say "yeah it's all profitable, so ads are as strong as ever."
      - baobabKoodaa 5y ago
        Revenue is not profit.
    - emilsedgh 5y ago
      Being profitable is only one angle though. Youtube is the biggest media network right now. I wouldn't be surprised if it beats Spotify as a music streaming service and a host of other unrelated sectors as well.
- mromanuk 5y ago
  That’s true. Definitively this was on the plus side for IBM PR and Marketing.
politician 5y ago
Prediction markets are one of those things that cryptocurrencies are good for.
- todd8 5y ago
  Why?
  - politician 5y ago
    Good question. Prediction markets [1] allow people to bet on outcomes and benefit financially if they are correct. However, many jurisdictions ban them outright claiming that they a form of gambling and challenging the unregulated nature of questions leading to misaligned incentives (“When will that building burn down?”). Yet despite these issues, the scheme can offer a neutral ground for betting against overhyped technologies or registering dissent against the policies of authoritarian regimes. Cryptocurrency based prediction markets further protect the participants by masking or hiding their identities. The combination of these features makes prediction markets an effective way to deliver global-scale censorship-resistant voting to the masses. [1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prediction_market https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prediction_market
    - listenallyall 5y ago
      So all you're saying is that cryptocurrencies can be deployed to facilitate illegal behavior. We've known that for quite a while.
      - politician 5y ago
        To interpret a tool like prediction markets as you have, is it fair to say that you strongly believe in the divine right of kings?
        listenallyall 5y ago
        I never said that prediction markets should be illegal -- I'm just acknowledging what you stated, that in some jurisdictions, they are. That's a fact. Running a cryptocurrency-based prediction market doesn't make it less illegal. Your argument isn't with me, it's with whoever decided a prediction market should be illegal. Go change that person's mind.
phphphphp 5y ago
being cynical is easy because most things fail, the challenge is in identifying winners early or identifying losers after they’ve had some measure of success.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
draw_down 5y ago

cuteboy19 5y ago

Sometimes companies use their failed or loss making products to help promote their successful products. YouTube is a prime example

frosted-flakes 5y ago
What failed/loss-making products is Google using to promote YouTube?
- donkarma 5y ago
  you think YouTube is profitable?
  - colinmhayes 5y ago
    Yes, I think youtube is making billions of dollars a year. Youtube's revenue was $25 billion last year. It's a mature product. You don't think it's making money?
    - mardifoufs 5y ago
      Google still doesn't release the profit figures for youtube, only revenue. Even the revenue figure was a secret until 2--3 years ago, so it was probably not that high. If youtube was very profitable, I'm not sure why Google would hide it in its earnings since they almost always try to show how they aren't exclusively dependent on their search ad business. I'm not saying youtube does not make any profit at this point, but if it wasn't tiny there's no reason for them not to talk about it.
      - brendoelfrendo 5y ago
        I mean, the opposite is also true, isn't it? If Google's search ad revenue was going down while YouTube ad revenue was going up, I feel like Google would want to keep that a secret so that people don't realize that search ads are shrinking in relevance. Basically, I don't see that Google has any incentive to break out its profits by line of business unless someone forces them to. They're better off if you just look at a black box of ad revenue and say "yeah it's all profitable, so ads are as strong as ever."
    - baobabKoodaa 5y ago
      Revenue is not profit.
  - emilsedgh 5y ago
    Being profitable is only one angle though. Youtube is the biggest media network right now. I wouldn't be surprised if it beats Spotify as a music streaming service and a host of other unrelated sectors as well.
mromanuk 5y ago
That’s true. Definitively this was on the plus side for IBM PR and Marketing.

politician 5y ago

Prediction markets are one of those things that cryptocurrencies are good for.

todd8 5y ago
Why?
- politician 5y ago
  Good question. Prediction markets [1] allow people to bet on outcomes and benefit financially if they are correct. However, many jurisdictions ban them outright claiming that they a form of gambling and challenging the unregulated nature of questions leading to misaligned incentives (“When will that building burn down?”). Yet despite these issues, the scheme can offer a neutral ground for betting against overhyped technologies or registering dissent against the policies of authoritarian regimes. Cryptocurrency based prediction markets further protect the participants by masking or hiding their identities. The combination of these features makes prediction markets an effective way to deliver global-scale censorship-resistant voting to the masses. [1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prediction_market https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prediction_market
  - listenallyall 5y ago
    So all you're saying is that cryptocurrencies can be deployed to facilitate illegal behavior. We've known that for quite a while.
    - politician 5y ago
      To interpret a tool like prediction markets as you have, is it fair to say that you strongly believe in the divine right of kings?
      - listenallyall 5y ago
        I never said that prediction markets should be illegal -- I'm just acknowledging what you stated, that in some jurisdictions, they are. That's a fact. Running a cryptocurrency-based prediction market doesn't make it less illegal. Your argument isn't with me, it's with whoever decided a prediction market should be illegal. Go change that person's mind.

phphphphp 5y ago

being cynical is easy because most things fail, the challenge is in identifying winners early or identifying losers after they’ve had some measure of success.

deleted 5y ago
[deleted]

draw_down 5y ago