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If economists can't make reliable predictions any better than randos on HN, then aren't they all essentially frauds? I don't care ehat school they went to; the
by ravenstine 5y ago
If economists can't make reliable predictions any better than randos on HN, then aren't they all essentially frauds? I don't care ehat school they went to; the occupation of "economist" seems rather worthless in 2022. It's one of those fields where no one's feet is held to the fire, there's no accountability, and they can make up all sorts of specious predictions.
- kzrdude 5y agoMaybe they can make reliable predictions but just not about the thing you ask about here - "the crash".
- ilaksh 5y agoTo me it's like, there is a special giant sports book in many large cities, but strangely, everyone treats the bookies like wise scholarly priests.
- btreecat 5y agoYou are conflating an economist with a soothsayer.
- ravenstine 5y agoExplain how they are not indistinguishable beyond the superficial. Is their predictive power significantly greater?