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I honestly wonder if the Fed knows that the only way out of the current predicament is to cause large scale inflation such that incomes and earnings "catch up"
by lumost 5y ago
I honestly wonder if the Fed knows that the only way out of the current predicament is to cause large scale inflation such that incomes and earnings "catch up" to asset prices. Playing the current situation forward a couple things could happen.
1. Asset prices stay elevated, rates rise but find equilibrium - those who own assets will get paid more, but those who rent or earn income from assets will have to give a greater share of their money to those who own. Millenials who as a generation only own 2% of assets will get locked out of asset ownership for another 10+ year economic cycle. Millenials find that they only start accumulating assets through inheritance - with the vast majority of the generation locked out of entrepreneurship and meaningful equity.
2. Inflation rises, asset prices relative to incomes fall. Retirees lose most of their wealth while income earners in the Millenial generation are able to buy into the economy through savings. Due to the imbalance in asset ownership millenials on the whole do not suffer from inflation, but benefit through higher wages. Retirees will suffer due to substantially reduced purchasing power over 10-20 years as inflation eats into their stored wealth.
3. Asset prices fall, wages don't rise - This looks like the deferred deleveraging of '08 Everyone takes a hit - with large bankruptcies wiping out asset prices and employment suffering during the downturn. The only positive is that wage earners would once again be able to buy into the economy.
Given this outlook inflation seems like the best choice for policy makers. I'd doubt that it's sustainable to have an entire generation get locked out of the economy.
- kzrdude 5y agoDo their records go public after a number of years (guessing many, like 50)? It would be interesting to have discussions like this enter the historical record and be available to researchers too.
- herval 5y ago> I honestly wonder if the Fed knows that the only way out of the current predicament is to cause large scale inflation such that incomes and earnings "catch up" to asset prices. Playing the current situation forward a couple things could happen. I lived through periods of hyperinflation and constant high inflation, and in neither case income "caught up" with asset prices - in fact they made things much worse, throwing tons of people in absolute poverty. Where has this worked as a solution, historically?