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One thing that is not clear is if the current run up has some inherent defect or economic malfunction it's relying on. Of course its a bubble because we don't k

One thing that is not clear is if the current run up has some inherent defect or economic malfunction it's relying on. Of course its a bubble because we don't know and we will know only when it pops. However, what I am trying to get at is, the economists and fed is acting as if the free money (at close to 0 rates) given over the last decade and even more so the last 2-3 yrs is causing this run up in prices. If that is the case and the fed raises rates, I saw another report which says the market always goes up when rates are raised -- https://www.marketwatch.com/story/get-ready-for-the-climb-heres-what-history-says-about-stock-market-returns-during-fed-rate-hike-cycles-11642248640 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/get-ready-for-the-climb-he... Point is, even though intuitively it feels like the bubble is close to popping we are not sure about it.

tim333 5y ago
There are a couple of reasons for popping now. Firstly some speculative stuff seems to have already peaked such as Quantumscape which he mentions. More fundamentally we have an issue with inflation. They can only really reign that back by raising rates which will be bad for the markets.
ravenstine 5y ago
If economists can't make reliable predictions any better than randos on HN, then aren't they all essentially frauds? I don't care ehat school they went to; the occupation of "economist" seems rather worthless in 2022. It's one of those fields where no one's feet is held to the fire, there's no accountability, and they can make up all sorts of specious predictions.
- kzrdude 5y ago
  Maybe they can make reliable predictions but just not about the thing you ask about here - "the crash".
- ilaksh 5y ago
  To me it's like, there is a special giant sports book in many large cities, but strangely, everyone treats the bookies like wise scholarly priests.
- btreecat 5y ago
  You are conflating an economist with a soothsayer.
  - ravenstine 5y ago
    Explain how they are not indistinguishable beyond the superficial. Is their predictive power significantly greater?

tim333 5y ago

There are a couple of reasons for popping now. Firstly some speculative stuff seems to have already peaked such as Quantumscape which he mentions. More fundamentally we have an issue with inflation. They can only really reign that back by raising rates which will be bad for the markets.

ravenstine 5y ago

If economists can't make reliable predictions any better than randos on HN, then aren't they all essentially frauds? I don't care ehat school they went to; the occupation of "economist" seems rather worthless in 2022. It's one of those fields where no one's feet is held to the fire, there's no accountability, and they can make up all sorts of specious predictions.

kzrdude 5y ago
Maybe they can make reliable predictions but just not about the thing you ask about here - "the crash".
ilaksh 5y ago
To me it's like, there is a special giant sports book in many large cities, but strangely, everyone treats the bookies like wise scholarly priests.
btreecat 5y ago
You are conflating an economist with a soothsayer.
- ravenstine 5y ago
  Explain how they are not indistinguishable beyond the superficial. Is their predictive power significantly greater?