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They went from nuclear to coal and gas to be more green.[0] [0]https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottcarpenter/2020/01/11/costs-of-germanys-nuclear-phase-out-are-s

They went from nuclear to coal and gas to be more green.[0] [0]https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottcarpenter/2020/01/11/costs-of-germanys-nuclear-phase-out-are-substantial-new-paper-finds-but-there-is-little-appetite-for-a-rethink/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottcarpenter/2020/01/11/costs...

api 5y ago
... and now Russia is becoming belligerent and there's a chance they will be targeted with sanctions if they invade Ukraine, which would cause gas prices to explode. Some of this risk is probably being preemptively priced into the market via speculation on gas.
- aurizon 5y ago
  There is a good chance that Ukraine will target these lines via valve and pumping station attacks as a form of resource denial to Russia. There are few alternate routes and the valves and pumping stations are not hardened. There are also many exposed runs that are vulnerable by shallow or even zero cover. Such damage would take a long time to repair, and large numbers of attack points that are hard to defend.
  - distances 5y ago
    I'm no geopolitics expert, but I find it exceedingly implausible that Ukraine would sabotage energy delivery to Central Europe, the assumed allies, just to cause a small income drop for Russia.
cycomanic 5y ago
Except that's not the case. But you already knew that. A side note in Sweden we had a 70% price hike and Sweden is nuclear and hydro.
- in3d 5y ago
  This professor of energy policy thinks it is making a difference: “The end of nuclear power in Germany will likely push prices up even further, according to Sebastian Herold, a professor of energy policy at the Darmstadt University of Applied Sciences” (https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20211231-germany-to-close-nuclear-reactors-despite-energy-crisis https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20211231-germany-to-cl...) When you lose 25% of your 2011 energy producing capacity by closing many nuclear power plants, it’d be strange if there was no effect. The pollution increase is even more worrying after many new studies since then found negative effects on human health that we didn't know about earlier: https://www.heinz.cmu.edu/media/2020/January/study-examines-costs-closing-nuclear-plants-germany https://www.heinz.cmu.edu/media/2020/January/study-examines-...
- zibzab 5y ago
  Swedish price hike is due to the German screw up. Even after closing some reactors (plus one more currently down due to some accident) Sweden is still producing 15% more than it needs. The price increase is due to increased international prices thanks to Germany, and Russia.
- Ourgon 5y ago
  Electricity prices in Sweden have gone up due to two factors: - the "green" party "Miljöpartiet" ("Party for the environment") has forced the premature closure of half of the nuclear power plants, going so far as to replace the leadership of the state-owned power consortium "Vattenfall" when they refused to fall in line. They actually boast about closing those nuclear power plants, indicating the disconnect between their party's name and its goals. - Sweden has increased its exchange with other European power distribution networks which caused the higher prices on the European market to have a larger influence on local pricing. The country is divided into 4 pricing zones, the northernmost 2 of which have lower prices - closer to the price paid by all Swedes before deregulation and the introduction of the controlled market "Nord Pool" - than the rest. Have a look at the "control room" site for information on current pricing, electricity flows, power sources and more: https://www.svk.se/om-kraftsystemet/kontrollrummet/
  - 5y ago

api 5y ago

... and now Russia is becoming belligerent and there's a chance they will be targeted with sanctions if they invade Ukraine, which would cause gas prices to explode. Some of this risk is probably being preemptively priced into the market via speculation on gas.

aurizon 5y ago
There is a good chance that Ukraine will target these lines via valve and pumping station attacks as a form of resource denial to Russia. There are few alternate routes and the valves and pumping stations are not hardened. There are also many exposed runs that are vulnerable by shallow or even zero cover. Such damage would take a long time to repair, and large numbers of attack points that are hard to defend.
- distances 5y ago
  I'm no geopolitics expert, but I find it exceedingly implausible that Ukraine would sabotage energy delivery to Central Europe, the assumed allies, just to cause a small income drop for Russia.

cycomanic 5y ago

Except that's not the case. But you already knew that. A side note in Sweden we had a 70% price hike and Sweden is nuclear and hydro.

in3d 5y ago
This professor of energy policy thinks it is making a difference: “The end of nuclear power in Germany will likely push prices up even further, according to Sebastian Herold, a professor of energy policy at the Darmstadt University of Applied Sciences” (https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20211231-germany-to-close-nuclear-reactors-despite-energy-crisis https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20211231-germany-to-cl...) When you lose 25% of your 2011 energy producing capacity by closing many nuclear power plants, it’d be strange if there was no effect. The pollution increase is even more worrying after many new studies since then found negative effects on human health that we didn't know about earlier: https://www.heinz.cmu.edu/media/2020/January/study-examines-costs-closing-nuclear-plants-germany https://www.heinz.cmu.edu/media/2020/January/study-examines-...
zibzab 5y ago
Swedish price hike is due to the German screw up. Even after closing some reactors (plus one more currently down due to some accident) Sweden is still producing 15% more than it needs. The price increase is due to increased international prices thanks to Germany, and Russia.
Ourgon 5y ago
Electricity prices in Sweden have gone up due to two factors: - the "green" party "Miljöpartiet" ("Party for the environment") has forced the premature closure of half of the nuclear power plants, going so far as to replace the leadership of the state-owned power consortium "Vattenfall" when they refused to fall in line. They actually boast about closing those nuclear power plants, indicating the disconnect between their party's name and its goals. - Sweden has increased its exchange with other European power distribution networks which caused the higher prices on the European market to have a larger influence on local pricing. The country is divided into 4 pricing zones, the northernmost 2 of which have lower prices - closer to the price paid by all Swedes before deregulation and the introduction of the controlled market "Nord Pool" - than the rest. Have a look at the "control room" site for information on current pricing, electricity flows, power sources and more: https://www.svk.se/om-kraftsystemet/kontrollrummet/
- 5y ago