5 ms·

With Omnicron spreading as it is, I'm kind of expecting that everyone will get infected this wave. And afterwards, everyone is then either vaccinated or recover

With Omnicron spreading as it is, I'm kind of expecting that everyone will get infected this wave. And afterwards, everyone is then either vaccinated or recovered or dead and we can drop all of the precautions. What am I overlooking?

sneak 5y ago
> I'm kind of expecting that everyone will get infected this wave I'm very glad that not all places on Earth have taken this destructive and defeatist view.
- fxtentacle 5y ago
  Which country has successfully contained Omnicron?
  - 1over137 5y ago
    I guess China. But you probably have to be a full-fledged dictatorship to achieve it.
    - andrepd 5y ago
      Did they? They aren't exactly known for being teansparent.
      - xster 5y ago
        It's exponential growth. They don't have to be transparent for the world to know if they contained it or not.
    - rdtwo 5y ago
      They have probably done more than anyone else, idk how you judge success here though… most lives fucked up then yes
  - sneak 5y ago
    That's a different position than the one I advocated. Containing an extremely contagious airborne pathogen is not the same as not simply assuming that "everyone will get infected" (which suggests that any activity to contain or restrict the spread of infection is 100% wasteful).
joe_the_user 5y ago
The wave has mostly subsided in South Africa, somewhat subsided in New York and other places. Far from everyone was infected.
- rdtwo 5y ago
  And by that do your mean the new baseline is now 2-3x what it was mid spike then yes it subsided
remram 5y ago
> What am I overlooking? You can get it more than once.
- kerneloftruth 5y ago
  Yes, like other coronaviruses[1]. It's time to calm down and return to normal order. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/general-information.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/general-information.html
- remarkEon 5y ago
  And you can get a cold more than once. What's your point? Omicron is a mild illness, especially if you're vaccinated. I'm not sure why we should keep acting like we were in mid 2020, when we didn't have vaccines at all.
  - MattRix 5y ago
    It may be a “mild” illness, but a mild illness that spreads through the entire population at once is still a bad thing. Many hospitals in areas with Omicron have been pushed to the absolute limit, and that’s despite the fairly strict procautions that have been taken.
    - bavell 5y ago
      Which hospitals and which limits? And why is this still a problem after 2 years? How many more years or decades will it continue to be a problem?
      - MattRix 5y ago
        I live in Ontario in Canada and it’s a problem here. I don’t understand what 2 years has to do with it. The big point of restrictions is to flatten the curve. This might be the last time it’s a problem, or it might continue for another year, who knows? It really depends on what variants emerge and how serious their effects are.
      - 5y ago
benmmurphy 5y ago
- conception 5y ago
  Luckily you don't need a crazy conspiracy theory because it's far more likely that Omnicron just mutated into a more successful version like viruses do.
throwaway0a5e 5y ago
People have been whipping themselves into a frenzy for 2yr. That won't just go away overnight because they caught Omicron and it was fine.
msbarnett 5y ago
> And afterwards, everyone is then either vaccinated or recovered or dead and we can drop all of the precautions. What am I overlooking? Omicron is spreading rapidly for a wide variety of reasons, but not least among them is the fact that it significantly escapes any prior immunity gained via vaccination or infection with a prior strain of the virus. It’s not at all clear to me why we’d assume that this will mark “the end” - if anything this seems like a good indication that we’ll see future strains with this measles-like contagiousness that significantly escapes any prior immunity gained from Omicron. And this is on top of the fact that immunity to coronaviruses in general does not seem to be particularly long-lasting. At which point, unless we have significantly invested in hiring a lot more nurses and creating a lot more hospital beds (which I see no signs of), we will be looking at bringing back at least some restrictions in many jurisdictions to avoid having to cancel many medical procedures that have spent the last 2 years getting canceled repeatedly.
igetspam 5y ago
Are you volunteering yourself or your loved ones for the dead pile? You're either being sarcastic or you're overlooking how selfish this stance is.
- 7steps2much 5y ago
  Are they though? Assuming that they and their loved ones are vaccinated, the risk of death is relatively small, to the point where one could expect that they die of other causes first. That said, they are correct. Assuming that at some point lockdowns just stop, everyone will be either recovered or dead. Vaccinated people will be almost completely recovered, with unvaccinated numbering the most death. This is not sarcasm, it's not selfish, it's a simple fact. Vaccinations are available to the general public and there are very few that are not capable of receiving the vaccine, many that choose not to. Those that choose not to will have a higher risk of death, due to a decision they made.
  - jjnoakes 5y ago
    > Those that choose not to will have a higher risk of death, due to a decision they made. This makes it sound like you think the consequences of their actions are limited to them; if that were true, then I think the debate would be a lot less interesting. I for one don't believe that the decision only affects the individual in this case.
asciimov 5y ago
> What am I overlooking? Mutations. An increased infections means increased chance of evolution of this virus. If the virus changes in the right way, current vaccinations wont work anymore. Another problem is if it becomes more mutable, we could have waves of seasonal covid that like a cold doesn't care if you had another variant. It's in our best interest to try to stop the spread as much as possible.
- _mersault 5y ago
  Viral mutations trend toward reduced risk to carriers as a means to being more sustainably transmissible. Like other biological entities, viruses evolve to survive and replicate more efficiently. If the hosts die off, survival and replication is stunted. We’re not out of the woods yet w/r/t dangerous variants, but health risks will likely wane over time, and we’re obviously well past the point of meaningfully controlling transmission. We will absolutely experience seasonal waves and variance similar to the cold. All of that said, we need to do some realistic cost benefit analysis at this point. We have a new cold-like virus on the planet, and we’re implementing new ways to protect ourselves and treat it (if we’re smart). At this point, are the mental health and quality of life sacrifices we’re making worth it in the face of an inevitable endemic?
- gremlinsinc 5y ago
  Eventually... I think we'll hit herd immunity. Say there's a group of 100... like my county 42 of them are vaccinated. Say 10 die.... now you have 90... 42 vaccinated... that's now 46%... More deadly strain comes along, hitting the unvaxxed, and maybe 10 more die.. vaccinated rate is now 52.5%.. Eventually anti-science people will just fall victim to evolution and we'll trend towards 100% vaccinated, and then less vector for mutation. I think it'll always be w/ us....just maybe w/ less load via updated vaccines, we can continually keep it below high mortality thresholds for the general public, and lower viral load is lower chances for spread, and for mutations. I'm at the point of not much caring anymore, esp as far as anti-vax people come, though it'd be nice if we could triage them better where all other people come first in the hierarchy of needs and then --and only then if there are available beds can they receive one. I mean for decades we've done the same thing, except it was rich > poor... not it's people who trust doctors and are health responsible like organ donors are expected to be, who would receive first dibs at care. My biggest worry is the plummeting health of the healthcare workers themselves. Their mental health, their mass exodus. You can't just replace them. It takes years to encourage people to go into and then graduate from medical fields. I'm also worries about Cancer, i have lots of friends/family who've dealt w/ Cancer scares and most of them can't get even the littlest bit of pre-emptive care. My wife's mom died of Cancer last year and maybe she wouldn't have --had they not been throttling assesments and other doctor appointments. I have toddlers in preschool, but at this point I just accept we're all going to get it... so not worth worrying about.. As virulent as this version is, I just can't fathom a 4 year old not catching it somehow...I just hope they have mild cases and no lingering after-effects, I think I might have it now, as I've been super lethargic past 3 days and just exhausted... I'm triple vaxxed and still if this is it, it's not pleasant. TLDR: Delirious rambling re: I agree mutations are bad, dwindling healthcare worker health and resources is more bad, but also feel helpless, and kinda have given up, and just hope we can hurry up and get through all the unvaccinated people asap so we can fight this better. I'm a humanist, and usually compassionate, and care about human rights but I'm a bit jaded by the selfishness lately, and honestly the people who wouldn't wear a mask to protect others last year, I could care less if they end up winning a Herman Cain/Darwin Award this year. They provide so little value to society, they wouldn't have even been missed during the Thanos 'blip'. "Oh were you blipped? Huh...didn't evne notice...weird....awkward!".
refurb 5y ago
New variant, more restrictions out of caution, wait for new vaccine. Rinse and repeat.
trs8080 5y ago
> And afterwards, everyone is then either vaccinated or recovered or dead and we can drop all of the precautions. What am I overlooking? a lot of us don't believe in eugenics and condemning our friends and families to die.
lern_too_spel 5y ago
Nothing. That's the plan most governments (except the very few Covid-zero governments) are going with. Once the impact to healthcare is low enough, the plan is to remove all restrictions, which is what treating a disease as endemic instead of pandemic means.

sneak 5y ago

> I'm kind of expecting that everyone will get infected this wave I'm very glad that not all places on Earth have taken this destructive and defeatist view.

fxtentacle 5y ago
Which country has successfully contained Omnicron?
- 1over137 5y ago
  I guess China. But you probably have to be a full-fledged dictatorship to achieve it.
  - andrepd 5y ago
    Did they? They aren't exactly known for being teansparent.
    - xster 5y ago
      It's exponential growth. They don't have to be transparent for the world to know if they contained it or not.
  - rdtwo 5y ago
    They have probably done more than anyone else, idk how you judge success here though… most lives fucked up then yes
- sneak 5y ago
  That's a different position than the one I advocated. Containing an extremely contagious airborne pathogen is not the same as not simply assuming that "everyone will get infected" (which suggests that any activity to contain or restrict the spread of infection is 100% wasteful).

joe_the_user 5y ago

The wave has mostly subsided in South Africa, somewhat subsided in New York and other places. Far from everyone was infected.

rdtwo 5y ago
And by that do your mean the new baseline is now 2-3x what it was mid spike then yes it subsided

remram 5y ago

> What am I overlooking? You can get it more than once.

kerneloftruth 5y ago
Yes, like other coronaviruses[1]. It's time to calm down and return to normal order. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/general-information.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/general-information.html
remarkEon 5y ago
And you can get a cold more than once. What's your point? Omicron is a mild illness, especially if you're vaccinated. I'm not sure why we should keep acting like we were in mid 2020, when we didn't have vaccines at all.
- MattRix 5y ago
  It may be a “mild” illness, but a mild illness that spreads through the entire population at once is still a bad thing. Many hospitals in areas with Omicron have been pushed to the absolute limit, and that’s despite the fairly strict procautions that have been taken.
  - bavell 5y ago
    Which hospitals and which limits? And why is this still a problem after 2 years? How many more years or decades will it continue to be a problem?
    - MattRix 5y ago
      I live in Ontario in Canada and it’s a problem here. I don’t understand what 2 years has to do with it. The big point of restrictions is to flatten the curve. This might be the last time it’s a problem, or it might continue for another year, who knows? It really depends on what variants emerge and how serious their effects are.
    - 5y ago

benmmurphy 5y ago

conception 5y ago
Luckily you don't need a crazy conspiracy theory because it's far more likely that Omnicron just mutated into a more successful version like viruses do.

throwaway0a5e 5y ago

People have been whipping themselves into a frenzy for 2yr. That won't just go away overnight because they caught Omicron and it was fine.

msbarnett 5y ago

> And afterwards, everyone is then either vaccinated or recovered or dead and we can drop all of the precautions. What am I overlooking? Omicron is spreading rapidly for a wide variety of reasons, but not least among them is the fact that it significantly escapes any prior immunity gained via vaccination or infection with a prior strain of the virus. It’s not at all clear to me why we’d assume that this will mark “the end” - if anything this seems like a good indication that we’ll see future strains with this measles-like contagiousness that significantly escapes any prior immunity gained from Omicron. And this is on top of the fact that immunity to coronaviruses in general does not seem to be particularly long-lasting. At which point, unless we have significantly invested in hiring a lot more nurses and creating a lot more hospital beds (which I see no signs of), we will be looking at bringing back at least some restrictions in many jurisdictions to avoid having to cancel many medical procedures that have spent the last 2 years getting canceled repeatedly.

igetspam 5y ago

Are you volunteering yourself or your loved ones for the dead pile? You're either being sarcastic or you're overlooking how selfish this stance is.

7steps2much 5y ago
Are they though? Assuming that they and their loved ones are vaccinated, the risk of death is relatively small, to the point where one could expect that they die of other causes first. That said, they are correct. Assuming that at some point lockdowns just stop, everyone will be either recovered or dead. Vaccinated people will be almost completely recovered, with unvaccinated numbering the most death. This is not sarcasm, it's not selfish, it's a simple fact. Vaccinations are available to the general public and there are very few that are not capable of receiving the vaccine, many that choose not to. Those that choose not to will have a higher risk of death, due to a decision they made.
- jjnoakes 5y ago
  > Those that choose not to will have a higher risk of death, due to a decision they made. This makes it sound like you think the consequences of their actions are limited to them; if that were true, then I think the debate would be a lot less interesting. I for one don't believe that the decision only affects the individual in this case.

asciimov 5y ago

> What am I overlooking? Mutations. An increased infections means increased chance of evolution of this virus. If the virus changes in the right way, current vaccinations wont work anymore. Another problem is if it becomes more mutable, we could have waves of seasonal covid that like a cold doesn't care if you had another variant. It's in our best interest to try to stop the spread as much as possible.

_mersault 5y ago
Viral mutations trend toward reduced risk to carriers as a means to being more sustainably transmissible. Like other biological entities, viruses evolve to survive and replicate more efficiently. If the hosts die off, survival and replication is stunted. We’re not out of the woods yet w/r/t dangerous variants, but health risks will likely wane over time, and we’re obviously well past the point of meaningfully controlling transmission. We will absolutely experience seasonal waves and variance similar to the cold. All of that said, we need to do some realistic cost benefit analysis at this point. We have a new cold-like virus on the planet, and we’re implementing new ways to protect ourselves and treat it (if we’re smart). At this point, are the mental health and quality of life sacrifices we’re making worth it in the face of an inevitable endemic?
gremlinsinc 5y ago
Eventually... I think we'll hit herd immunity. Say there's a group of 100... like my county 42 of them are vaccinated. Say 10 die.... now you have 90... 42 vaccinated... that's now 46%... More deadly strain comes along, hitting the unvaxxed, and maybe 10 more die.. vaccinated rate is now 52.5%.. Eventually anti-science people will just fall victim to evolution and we'll trend towards 100% vaccinated, and then less vector for mutation. I think it'll always be w/ us....just maybe w/ less load via updated vaccines, we can continually keep it below high mortality thresholds for the general public, and lower viral load is lower chances for spread, and for mutations. I'm at the point of not much caring anymore, esp as far as anti-vax people come, though it'd be nice if we could triage them better where all other people come first in the hierarchy of needs and then --and only then if there are available beds can they receive one. I mean for decades we've done the same thing, except it was rich > poor... not it's people who trust doctors and are health responsible like organ donors are expected to be, who would receive first dibs at care. My biggest worry is the plummeting health of the healthcare workers themselves. Their mental health, their mass exodus. You can't just replace them. It takes years to encourage people to go into and then graduate from medical fields. I'm also worries about Cancer, i have lots of friends/family who've dealt w/ Cancer scares and most of them can't get even the littlest bit of pre-emptive care. My wife's mom died of Cancer last year and maybe she wouldn't have --had they not been throttling assesments and other doctor appointments. I have toddlers in preschool, but at this point I just accept we're all going to get it... so not worth worrying about.. As virulent as this version is, I just can't fathom a 4 year old not catching it somehow...I just hope they have mild cases and no lingering after-effects, I think I might have it now, as I've been super lethargic past 3 days and just exhausted... I'm triple vaxxed and still if this is it, it's not pleasant. TLDR: Delirious rambling re: I agree mutations are bad, dwindling healthcare worker health and resources is more bad, but also feel helpless, and kinda have given up, and just hope we can hurry up and get through all the unvaccinated people asap so we can fight this better. I'm a humanist, and usually compassionate, and care about human rights but I'm a bit jaded by the selfishness lately, and honestly the people who wouldn't wear a mask to protect others last year, I could care less if they end up winning a Herman Cain/Darwin Award this year. They provide so little value to society, they wouldn't have even been missed during the Thanos 'blip'. "Oh were you blipped? Huh...didn't evne notice...weird....awkward!".

refurb 5y ago

New variant, more restrictions out of caution, wait for new vaccine. Rinse and repeat.

trs8080 5y ago

> And afterwards, everyone is then either vaccinated or recovered or dead and we can drop all of the precautions. What am I overlooking? a lot of us don't believe in eugenics and condemning our friends and families to die.

lern_too_spel 5y ago

Nothing. That's the plan most governments (except the very few Covid-zero governments) are going with. Once the impact to healthcare is low enough, the plan is to remove all restrictions, which is what treating a disease as endemic instead of pandemic means.