5 ms·

If you want to limit yourself to the polar vortex phenomenon, then you really just need to look at historical weather data. To claim that it is happening more

If you want to limit yourself to the polar vortex phenomenon, then you really just need to look at historical weather data. To claim that it is happening more frequently, you don't have to completely understand it, just observe the occurrence. In the central US, winter temperature is highly dependent on wind direction and strength. We've been measuring that for a very long time. The polar vortex is very distinct. Strong winds from the north cause a temperature drop of 30+ degrees basically overnight. It stays like that for a few days to a week, and then goes away. The day/night temperature differential is much smaller. Anecdotally, people in the upper midwest will tell you this happens more frequently than it used to. Perhaps 3 out of every 5 years, maybe? Honestly, do we need to get more scientific than that? No, seriously - do we? This is why it matters: here in the northern parts of the US, we can handle it pretty well. It's within the operating range of our infrastructure. We have modern clothing. We have modern forecasting. When it happens, it doesn't last that long, and we move on. What doesn't seem to get talked about is this: if you consider distance from the arctic circle, the polar vortex that froze Texas only went a few percent further south than the ones now happen almost every year. A few percent. To my dear friends in Texas: just spend the money to winterize and then get on with your lives. It's not that much money - you can afford it. Honestly, this just reminds me of the mindset differences between the chemical companies and gas companies in Texas. All those chemical plants that surround Houston are giant rats nests of pipes because the chemical companies won't waste a drop of anything they can sell. They pull in chemical engineers from all over the country to come find ways to turn a waste product into a revenue stream. The gas companies, however, have their heads so far up their rear ends that they'd rather flare off their waste from gas pumps than bring an outsider in to help make money off it. You practically need to have been born into a gas family to work in that industry. Whatever, what I really mean is that winterization has a positive ROI, but good luck getting a gas person to see that.

marcus_holmes 5y ago
> Honestly, do we need to get more scientific than that? No, seriously - do we? Yes. Anecdata isn't science. People don't remember even the recent past accurately. We need hard data. I can't believe I have to say this on HN.
- UncleMeat 5y ago
  Fortunately, there are a bunch of papers investigating this. The polar vortex is connected to a high pressure ridge off the west coast which, in warmer climates, is more likely to persist through the winter. This forces air up over the poles and then back down over the midwest and central US. Modeling is hard, but scientists do make compelling scientific claims about the relative frequency of these events in worlds with and without rising temperatures.
  - marcus_holmes 5y ago
    I get that. But the article that this article quotes, (the climate.gov one) makes the specific statement that there is no trend in the data. It also discusses how the models break both ways: half the models predict stronger polar vortices, half less. I'm firmly of the opinion that if the measurements and the models disagree, then the models are wrong. But that's probably me just being old-fashioned ;) So if the anecdata and (half) the models say that these events are more common, but the actual measured data says there's no change, then surely we can agree that The Science says there's no change?
- falcolas 5y ago
  We do have lots of surface-level temperature and wind data. We just don't have a ton of high altitude data. And ultimately, it's the surface-level data that impacts us day-to-day - which indicates that yes, the surface becomes cold AF more frequently than before. Oh, and as an aside, recorded anecdotes are perfectly valid for use in science. Hence why we can even have science for psychology.
  - marcus_holmes 5y ago
    Psychology's probably not the best example, given that it's currently having a crisis around reproducability.
sidewndr46 5y ago
> To my dear friends in Texas: just spend the money to winterize and then get on with your lives But what exactly would this entail? My home was fine in sub 30F temps. It is fine in sub 20F temps as well. It's coming up on 40 years old and has never had any significant improvements since it was construction. It was a cheaply built home then and still is today. The issue is, the entirety of the energy system here failed in Austin. City of Austin deliberately turned off power when commanded to by ERCOT. Natural gas supplies were not always sufficient. When those are out, my house is going to freeze. Again, this doesn't really do anything but make me uncomfortable. I can just run a bucket of water then shut off the main to make sure the pipes don't burst. So what would I do to "winterize"? After the first day, there was no infrastructure to clear the roads of snow and ice. So you couldn't even go buy food, water, or even a blanket from the store in many cases. It didn't really matter if your vehicle was capable of driving in the snow (mine is fine) because there were so many accidents it was basically roadblocks everywhere. Also, when some of the stores lost power they told everyone they could not make any purchases. So what would we as citizens do to prepare? I can keep food, water, and other supplies but that is basically it.
- arsenic64 5y ago
  >So what would I do to "winterize"? Vote in politicians that will force the winterization of the energy grid. That's the only way. On a side note if I lived in Texas with all of that sun, I would be installing a solar roof and tesla power wall. I don't think this issue is going to be resolved for a long time.
- mschaef 5y ago
  > So what would I do to "winterize"? They were not speaking to home owners as much as utility and energy infrastructure owners. There is a great deal that could be done to make the system overall more able to withstand winter. Here are a couple concrete suggestions: * Wind turbines are available with an optional 'cold weather package' that lets them run more reliably in the sort of weather that Texas experienced last February. Texas wind generators often don't pay for this package on the basis of perceived risk, but maybe that decision needs to be revisited. * The gas pipeline companies that own electrical pumping stations could file the paperwork that notes these stations as critical infrastructure that should not be cut off from power. (A lot of this paperwork was missing in February.) * Nat gas well heads could be retrofitted with equipment that keeps them freezing due to water production from the well. * Long term planning could be put in place to connect ERCOT into neighboring power grids to allow for better risk sharing. (Southwest Power Pool in Arkansas is part of the Eastern Interconnect that covers the entire eastern half of the country. Even though SPP had had the same weather as TX, they were able to import power generation from as far away as the PA area to help support their load.) * The South Texas Nuclear Project lost a generator due to a frozen pressure sensor line. Large coal plants went offline due to frozen coal piles. I'm sure there are remediations that could be put in place for that sort of thing too. * The state could make an ernest effort to bring in political leadership that does not try to boil down all of the above to "Green New Deal Bad".

marcus_holmes 5y ago

> Honestly, do we need to get more scientific than that? No, seriously - do we? Yes. Anecdata isn't science. People don't remember even the recent past accurately. We need hard data. I can't believe I have to say this on HN.

UncleMeat 5y ago
Fortunately, there are a bunch of papers investigating this. The polar vortex is connected to a high pressure ridge off the west coast which, in warmer climates, is more likely to persist through the winter. This forces air up over the poles and then back down over the midwest and central US. Modeling is hard, but scientists do make compelling scientific claims about the relative frequency of these events in worlds with and without rising temperatures.
- marcus_holmes 5y ago
  I get that. But the article that this article quotes, (the climate.gov one) makes the specific statement that there is no trend in the data. It also discusses how the models break both ways: half the models predict stronger polar vortices, half less. I'm firmly of the opinion that if the measurements and the models disagree, then the models are wrong. But that's probably me just being old-fashioned ;) So if the anecdata and (half) the models say that these events are more common, but the actual measured data says there's no change, then surely we can agree that The Science says there's no change?
falcolas 5y ago
We do have lots of surface-level temperature and wind data. We just don't have a ton of high altitude data. And ultimately, it's the surface-level data that impacts us day-to-day - which indicates that yes, the surface becomes cold AF more frequently than before. Oh, and as an aside, recorded anecdotes are perfectly valid for use in science. Hence why we can even have science for psychology.
- marcus_holmes 5y ago
  Psychology's probably not the best example, given that it's currently having a crisis around reproducability.

sidewndr46 5y ago

> To my dear friends in Texas: just spend the money to winterize and then get on with your lives But what exactly would this entail? My home was fine in sub 30F temps. It is fine in sub 20F temps as well. It's coming up on 40 years old and has never had any significant improvements since it was construction. It was a cheaply built home then and still is today. The issue is, the entirety of the energy system here failed in Austin. City of Austin deliberately turned off power when commanded to by ERCOT. Natural gas supplies were not always sufficient. When those are out, my house is going to freeze. Again, this doesn't really do anything but make me uncomfortable. I can just run a bucket of water then shut off the main to make sure the pipes don't burst. So what would I do to "winterize"? After the first day, there was no infrastructure to clear the roads of snow and ice. So you couldn't even go buy food, water, or even a blanket from the store in many cases. It didn't really matter if your vehicle was capable of driving in the snow (mine is fine) because there were so many accidents it was basically roadblocks everywhere. Also, when some of the stores lost power they told everyone they could not make any purchases. So what would we as citizens do to prepare? I can keep food, water, and other supplies but that is basically it.

arsenic64 5y ago
>So what would I do to "winterize"? Vote in politicians that will force the winterization of the energy grid. That's the only way. On a side note if I lived in Texas with all of that sun, I would be installing a solar roof and tesla power wall. I don't think this issue is going to be resolved for a long time.
mschaef 5y ago
> So what would I do to "winterize"? They were not speaking to home owners as much as utility and energy infrastructure owners. There is a great deal that could be done to make the system overall more able to withstand winter. Here are a couple concrete suggestions: * Wind turbines are available with an optional 'cold weather package' that lets them run more reliably in the sort of weather that Texas experienced last February. Texas wind generators often don't pay for this package on the basis of perceived risk, but maybe that decision needs to be revisited. * The gas pipeline companies that own electrical pumping stations could file the paperwork that notes these stations as critical infrastructure that should not be cut off from power. (A lot of this paperwork was missing in February.) * Nat gas well heads could be retrofitted with equipment that keeps them freezing due to water production from the well. * Long term planning could be put in place to connect ERCOT into neighboring power grids to allow for better risk sharing. (Southwest Power Pool in Arkansas is part of the Eastern Interconnect that covers the entire eastern half of the country. Even though SPP had had the same weather as TX, they were able to import power generation from as far away as the PA area to help support their load.) * The South Texas Nuclear Project lost a generator due to a frozen pressure sensor line. Large coal plants went offline due to frozen coal piles. I'm sure there are remediations that could be put in place for that sort of thing too. * The state could make an ernest effort to bring in political leadership that does not try to boil down all of the above to "Green New Deal Bad".