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IMO ramifications of AI fighters pilots would be more clear if writings focused on superhuman abilities to evade, which obliviates much of modern warfare underp
by dirtyid 5y ago
IMO ramifications of AI fighters pilots would be more clear if writings focused on superhuman abilities to evade, which obliviates much of modern warfare underpinnings.
Superior mental performance + kinematic performance in purpose built drones that operate at highers Gs = shifting force balance towards offense since when measures becomes obsolete / unworkable. Anti air weapons work well when autonomous missile can arbitrage the performance limitations of meatbags. But without meatbags, the sweet spot performance envelope are a step up - fighter sized vehicles that can carry more sensors, more compute, larger engines and more fuel than smaller vehicles like missiles. It's dodging in bullettime made real.
Carriers can rationalize their existence currently because entire carrier group + air wings has enough countermeasures to defend against saturation attack from (for optimistic demonstration) 100 incoming fighters and their missiles. This limits threat to other large states. But if AI can evade most of the counter measures that you only need 10 drones to penetrate a carrier group bubble, and considering these are unmanned that can be sold to almost any country without need to sustain complex airforce institutions, then the entire notion of modern naval power from a few capable projection platform dies. Global security balance is going to be decided even more by local superiority when significant force projection from around the world becomes untenable.
- nradov 5y agoThat's not how it works in the real world. Evading missiles, or avoiding being shot at in the first place, is more about tactics, signature management, EW, situational awareness, and defensive systems. The performance limitations of the "meatbags" are seldom the deciding factor.
- dirtyid 5y agoIt is one deciding factor, among the other you listed, which I already highlighted - sensors, compute, engines etc. I'm just pointing out a fighter sized UAV platform with no human limitation, more tech / countermeasures and fuel is going to have dramatically better performance envelope for evading AA, especially missiles with limited deltaV. Which is arguably more significant than dogfighting since dogfighting is a means to an end - destroying some significant ground target. Highly maneuverable UAV platforms that can trivially penetrate air defenses is more scary than AI fighters that can trivially shoot down other fighters, because being good at evasion means they wouldn't even need to dogfight.