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Daughter and I both had covid last week. Omicron is gonna get everyone. There's no way to flatten this curve. At least it had the decency to hit its peek in

Daughter and I both had covid last week. Omicron is gonna get everyone. There's no way to flatten this curve. At least it had the decency to hit its peek in January, after full time workers got their sick time replenished for the year.

brimble 5y ago
The reduction of recommended quarantine time was clearly an acknowledgement of this. Keeping it at two weeks with no way to significantly reduce infection rates would have led to a month of everything being shut down, and everyone still getting sick anyway. Hell, it may yet lead to a week or three of de facto shutdown, just from actual out-sick time. The folks in charge have given up, without explicitly saying so. [EDIT] For some evidence that we may get a de facto shutdown anyway: our (large) school district was short three hundred teachers the other day, and only managed to get one hundred subs. The schools are barely hanging on and shutting down or going remote for a week or two to cool things off and/or wait out the peak is a distinct possibility, which will have knock-on effects for the rest of the economy, which is also already dealing with high absence rates due to illness or direct exposure (which, with Omicron, is equivalent to "definitely has it, just waiting for symptoms").
- mml 5y ago
  my school district has been short 2-300 teachers ALL YEAR. my kid didn't have a math teacher for the first few months, then got one, who proceeded to quit a few weeks later. now math class is watching YouTube videos about math. or it would be, but the district just went remote...
  - rdtwo 5y ago
    100% a pay and working condition problem.
- nradov 5y ago
  In California anyone with a Bachelor's degree and clean background check can now sign up to be a temporary substitute teacher. https://www.gov.ca.gov/2022/01/11/governor-newsom-signs-executive-order-to-support-safe-in-person-learning-at-schools-amid-covid-surge/ https://www.gov.ca.gov/2022/01/11/governor-newsom-signs-exec...
  - brimble 5y ago
    Pay's so low at districts in our area that anyone who's not already doing it and has free time isn't gonna sign up for even more exposure to Omicron, for what they pay. Talking like $100-120/day and no benefits (of course), depending on the district. Even for this low CoL area, that's shit pay for someone with a degree. Between the low pay and the nature of the work (no guaranteed work, may have to travel to any of several places for work on a given day, background checks, et c.) they'd basically already tapped all the people willing to do that, at the rate they were offering, before there was also a pandemic on top of it. And unlike teachers if a sub gets omicron they just aren't getting paid, for that or any other job, for a couple weeks.
    - rdtwo 5y ago
      The people doing it before we’re basically volunteers for what they were paying. The pay is not even close to enough. They need to pay folks like they pay travel nurses to get staffing levels they need
      - brimble 5y ago
        Oh yeah, totally, before it was relying heavily on a population of bored retired teachers wanting to pick up a little money to go drop at the boats or whatever, licensed teachers who hadn't yet landed a full time role and wanted time in a classroom plus some networking for their job search, and a handful of others that can go in some kind of "miscellaneous" bucket. The trouble is there are only so many of those, and most who were interested were already doing it. [EDIT] this is actually yet another case where a universal healthcare system would help. $120/day and an uncertain schedule is a lot more appealing when your healthcare's covered. Not saying it's great, but that would help a lot.
standardUser 5y ago
"Omicron is gonna get everyone" This is a very specific claim that gets thrown around a lot with zero evidence. "There's no way to flatten this curve." If people were dying now at the same rate they were dying in the first wave, the curve would be flattened because people would once again be cowering in their homes while only ambulances and hearses roamed the streets.
- nradov 5y ago
  Some variant of SARS-CoV-2 will be around forever, just like the other endemic coronaviruses. It is impossible to eradicate. Thus everyone will be repeatedly exposed. This is so obvious that I can't imagine what sort of evidence you would want. https://www.medpagetoday.com/opinion/vinay-prasad/94646 https://www.medpagetoday.com/opinion/vinay-prasad/94646 If you think it will be possible to avoid the virus forever then please explain how that could be accomplished in the real world? Because people aren't going to continue with social distancing or wearing PPE for the rest of their lives, regardless of the risks.
  - standardUser 5y ago
    The flu has been around forever, but not every single person has had the flu. Viruses don't spread like magic, and there's bound to be some segment of the population that never gets infected. To me, that seems more obvious than assuming every single person will come in contact and become infected. Even within the same household, Omicron doesn't always spread to every member.
  - rdtwo 5y ago
    Some of us just need to make it a few months till our kids can get vaccinated. If we Had any independent doctors that could fudge the age requirement we wouldn’t even wait.
    - nradov 5y ago
      Fortunately CDC data shows there is no significant risk to healthy children. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burden.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burd...
decafninja 5y ago
A lot of people in my close social circle, myself included, took the pandemic very seriously with some degree of bunker mentality. Most of us got through 2020-2021 without getting infected. Yet left and right I hear friends and family getting infected with omicron now. I fully believe a lot of us are going to end up getting it, esp. that many workplaces are disallowing WFH.

brimble 5y ago

The reduction of recommended quarantine time was clearly an acknowledgement of this. Keeping it at two weeks with no way to significantly reduce infection rates would have led to a month of everything being shut down, and everyone still getting sick anyway. Hell, it may yet lead to a week or three of de facto shutdown, just from actual out-sick time. The folks in charge have given up, without explicitly saying so. [EDIT] For some evidence that we may get a de facto shutdown anyway: our (large) school district was short three hundred teachers the other day, and only managed to get one hundred subs. The schools are barely hanging on and shutting down or going remote for a week or two to cool things off and/or wait out the peak is a distinct possibility, which will have knock-on effects for the rest of the economy, which is also already dealing with high absence rates due to illness or direct exposure (which, with Omicron, is equivalent to "definitely has it, just waiting for symptoms").

mml 5y ago
my school district has been short 2-300 teachers ALL YEAR. my kid didn't have a math teacher for the first few months, then got one, who proceeded to quit a few weeks later. now math class is watching YouTube videos about math. or it would be, but the district just went remote...
- rdtwo 5y ago
  100% a pay and working condition problem.
nradov 5y ago
In California anyone with a Bachelor's degree and clean background check can now sign up to be a temporary substitute teacher. https://www.gov.ca.gov/2022/01/11/governor-newsom-signs-executive-order-to-support-safe-in-person-learning-at-schools-amid-covid-surge/ https://www.gov.ca.gov/2022/01/11/governor-newsom-signs-exec...
- brimble 5y ago
  Pay's so low at districts in our area that anyone who's not already doing it and has free time isn't gonna sign up for even more exposure to Omicron, for what they pay. Talking like $100-120/day and no benefits (of course), depending on the district. Even for this low CoL area, that's shit pay for someone with a degree. Between the low pay and the nature of the work (no guaranteed work, may have to travel to any of several places for work on a given day, background checks, et c.) they'd basically already tapped all the people willing to do that, at the rate they were offering, before there was also a pandemic on top of it. And unlike teachers if a sub gets omicron they just aren't getting paid, for that or any other job, for a couple weeks.
  - rdtwo 5y ago
    The people doing it before we’re basically volunteers for what they were paying. The pay is not even close to enough. They need to pay folks like they pay travel nurses to get staffing levels they need
    - brimble 5y ago
      Oh yeah, totally, before it was relying heavily on a population of bored retired teachers wanting to pick up a little money to go drop at the boats or whatever, licensed teachers who hadn't yet landed a full time role and wanted time in a classroom plus some networking for their job search, and a handful of others that can go in some kind of "miscellaneous" bucket. The trouble is there are only so many of those, and most who were interested were already doing it. [EDIT] this is actually yet another case where a universal healthcare system would help. $120/day and an uncertain schedule is a lot more appealing when your healthcare's covered. Not saying it's great, but that would help a lot.

standardUser 5y ago

"Omicron is gonna get everyone" This is a very specific claim that gets thrown around a lot with zero evidence. "There's no way to flatten this curve." If people were dying now at the same rate they were dying in the first wave, the curve would be flattened because people would once again be cowering in their homes while only ambulances and hearses roamed the streets.

nradov 5y ago
Some variant of SARS-CoV-2 will be around forever, just like the other endemic coronaviruses. It is impossible to eradicate. Thus everyone will be repeatedly exposed. This is so obvious that I can't imagine what sort of evidence you would want. https://www.medpagetoday.com/opinion/vinay-prasad/94646 https://www.medpagetoday.com/opinion/vinay-prasad/94646 If you think it will be possible to avoid the virus forever then please explain how that could be accomplished in the real world? Because people aren't going to continue with social distancing or wearing PPE for the rest of their lives, regardless of the risks.
- standardUser 5y ago
  The flu has been around forever, but not every single person has had the flu. Viruses don't spread like magic, and there's bound to be some segment of the population that never gets infected. To me, that seems more obvious than assuming every single person will come in contact and become infected. Even within the same household, Omicron doesn't always spread to every member.
- rdtwo 5y ago
  Some of us just need to make it a few months till our kids can get vaccinated. If we Had any independent doctors that could fudge the age requirement we wouldn’t even wait.
  - nradov 5y ago
    Fortunately CDC data shows there is no significant risk to healthy children. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burden.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burd...

decafninja 5y ago

A lot of people in my close social circle, myself included, took the pandemic very seriously with some degree of bunker mentality. Most of us got through 2020-2021 without getting infected. Yet left and right I hear friends and family getting infected with omicron now. I fully believe a lot of us are going to end up getting it, esp. that many workplaces are disallowing WFH.