7 ms·

I don't think they will. There's no point. There is a stable duopoly, where Microsoft can reap the benefits of competition between the two, without wasting any

I don't think they will. There's no point. There is a stable duopoly, where Microsoft can reap the benefits of competition between the two, without wasting any resources. May not be best for consumer - really great for business. (especially, if courts hold that Apple/Google cannot outright ban apps from their stores)

bduerst 5y ago
Yeah, there's already a quality- and cost-leader for the mobile market. MS would need to push their business office lock-in, but both they and Blackberry tried that. Without the consumer market it's not viable.
rusk 5y ago
I’ve heard that thanks to patents and stuff they already makes loads of money out of mobile as it is!
- nikanj 5y ago
  I wonder if the Nokia phone division sale included the NGage patent portfolio
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
  - mnd999 5y ago
    Nokia kept all their patents.
    - adventured 5y ago
      For anyone curious about that: "Nokia will retain its patent portfolio and will grant Microsoft a 10-year license to its patents at the time of the closing. Microsoft will grant Nokia reciprocal rights to use Microsoft patents in its HERE services. In addition, Nokia will grant Microsoft an option to extend this mutual patent agreement in perpetuity." https://news.microsoft.com/2013/09/03/microsoft-to-acquire-nokias-devices-services-business-license-nokias-patents-and-mapping-services/ https://news.microsoft.com/2013/09/03/microsoft-to-acquire-n...
- obert 5y ago
  they make money but they lack control, e.g. MS can't decide how software/apps are distributed, what is trusted and what not, how apps are glued together, that's a huge miss, plus the 30% cut Apple and Google apply to payments, MS is missing out on a lot of money, and MS stores pale in comparison. Not that I support this model of distributing software, I prefer the old desktop model of downloading from internet, but don't think MS is making much money just because of patents.
  - rusk 5y ago
    Is there some particular cultural reason why MS have been so bad at the whole walled Garden thing? I’m thinking back as far as MSN
    - kaesar14 5y ago
      I'm not sure about internal cultural reasons why but it seems like Microsoft just sucks at user experience for the most part, which is the key to the walled garden approach to me. I've never used a Microsoft product (other than mayyyybe the Xbox 360?) and thought, wow, this product is awesome and I'd never willingly switch to something else. You know, that feeling you get when you use something like an iPhone or Google products in the 2000s/early 2010s?
    - obert 5y ago
      well actually MS knows how to create a walled garden, but just enterprise gardens. They fail at consumer gardens because the leadership doesn’t see money there and are quite shortsighted at seeing it too. Eg see how they lost ads, search, browser, mobile. They’re in games because of Windows and later Azure, so, again they look at it through enterprise glasses.
- will4274 5y ago
  Less so than they used to. These were mostly 90s patents and a lot of them expired in the past five years.
cma 5y ago
> There is a stable duopoly, where Microsoft can reap the benefits of competition between the two, without wasting any resources. The huge competition where both charge 30% of gross sales, far higher than even the federal corporate tax rate, which is only charged on the net.
- JAlexoid 5y ago
  And they don't have to spend billions on building and maintaining their own platform.
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
- bduerst 5y ago
  They get away with that because it's a two-sided market and they have all the consumers. Microsoft tried to woo devs on Windows phone and it didn't work, because consumers didn't follow.
- AJ007 5y ago
  Hard to see that lasting more than another 2-3 years.
- marcellus23 5y ago
  They’re the ones providing everything from the OS through the dev environment and the hosting and payment processing, not to mention marketing and having built the billion devices that users are purchasing from.
kizer 5y ago
I could see them launching an Android “SurfacePhone” just because (to have SOME stance in mobile). Or Windows-based since Windows already has an android subsystem (or emulator right?).
- mdoms 5y ago
  It's called the Surface Duo, it's already on its second generation. https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/d/surface-duo-2/9408kgxp4xjl?activetab=pivot:overviewtab https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/d/surface-duo-2/9408kgxp4xjl...
  - pram 5y ago
    $1500 Android phone is giving me some Ballmer-era level laughs.
    - leppr 5y ago
      The Samsung Fold 3 was around this price at launch.
    - fomine3 5y ago
      Nowadays it's fine if it is made well (actually not good even in 2nd gen, for software)
  - kyriakos 5y ago
    I honestly don't understand which market segment that device is targeted to.
  - oneeyedpigeon 5y ago
    That's a foldable phone that you never use in 'full screen' mode, correct? For $1,500? Ouch.
  - lmm 5y ago
    Hmm, if it had a headphone jack and NFC-F (which it seems the Japanese edition might?) I'd be interested. Microsoft has always made good hardware.
sylens 5y ago
Purely anecdotal but I feel like we are at a point where a lot of people would definitely stop and take a close look at a non-Android alternative to the iPhone
- kyriakos 5y ago
  Would be really hard to launch a new platform. Even if its excellent on its own unfortunately it can't survive without a big app catalog.
  - sylens 5y ago
    Yes, it would definitely be an uphill battle. But I wonder if you could build a platform where a progressive web app felt enough like a mobile app and therefore enticed more app developers than requiring them to learn native tools for another platform
    - leppr 5y ago
      Ever heard of Firefox OS? https://medium.com/@bfrancis/the-legacy-of-firefox-os-c58ec32d94f0 https://medium.com/@bfrancis/the-legacy-of-firefox-os-c58ec3...
    - frivoal 5y ago
      Can a new phone platform be successful if it launches without whatsapp / wechat / line / instagram / [add a dozen social networks there]? A phone that doesn't let you speak to your friends, family, and coworkers is going to be a tough sell. Getting all those from the get go, without a large user base to motivate the developers, is going to be a tough sell.
  - friedman23 5y ago
    Easy solution, make the default app platform be based off of html/css/javascript. Now the entire ecosystem of web developers can build for your platform instantly.
    - 5y ago

bduerst 5y ago

Yeah, there's already a quality- and cost-leader for the mobile market. MS would need to push their business office lock-in, but both they and Blackberry tried that. Without the consumer market it's not viable.

rusk 5y ago

I’ve heard that thanks to patents and stuff they already makes loads of money out of mobile as it is!

nikanj 5y ago
I wonder if the Nokia phone division sale included the NGage patent portfolio
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
- mnd999 5y ago
  Nokia kept all their patents.
  - adventured 5y ago
    For anyone curious about that: "Nokia will retain its patent portfolio and will grant Microsoft a 10-year license to its patents at the time of the closing. Microsoft will grant Nokia reciprocal rights to use Microsoft patents in its HERE services. In addition, Nokia will grant Microsoft an option to extend this mutual patent agreement in perpetuity." https://news.microsoft.com/2013/09/03/microsoft-to-acquire-nokias-devices-services-business-license-nokias-patents-and-mapping-services/ https://news.microsoft.com/2013/09/03/microsoft-to-acquire-n...
obert 5y ago
they make money but they lack control, e.g. MS can't decide how software/apps are distributed, what is trusted and what not, how apps are glued together, that's a huge miss, plus the 30% cut Apple and Google apply to payments, MS is missing out on a lot of money, and MS stores pale in comparison. Not that I support this model of distributing software, I prefer the old desktop model of downloading from internet, but don't think MS is making much money just because of patents.
- rusk 5y ago
  Is there some particular cultural reason why MS have been so bad at the whole walled Garden thing? I’m thinking back as far as MSN
  - kaesar14 5y ago
    I'm not sure about internal cultural reasons why but it seems like Microsoft just sucks at user experience for the most part, which is the key to the walled garden approach to me. I've never used a Microsoft product (other than mayyyybe the Xbox 360?) and thought, wow, this product is awesome and I'd never willingly switch to something else. You know, that feeling you get when you use something like an iPhone or Google products in the 2000s/early 2010s?
  - obert 5y ago
    well actually MS knows how to create a walled garden, but just enterprise gardens. They fail at consumer gardens because the leadership doesn’t see money there and are quite shortsighted at seeing it too. Eg see how they lost ads, search, browser, mobile. They’re in games because of Windows and later Azure, so, again they look at it through enterprise glasses.
will4274 5y ago
Less so than they used to. These were mostly 90s patents and a lot of them expired in the past five years.

cma 5y ago

> There is a stable duopoly, where Microsoft can reap the benefits of competition between the two, without wasting any resources. The huge competition where both charge 30% of gross sales, far higher than even the federal corporate tax rate, which is only charged on the net.

JAlexoid 5y ago
And they don't have to spend billions on building and maintaining their own platform.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
bduerst 5y ago
They get away with that because it's a two-sided market and they have all the consumers. Microsoft tried to woo devs on Windows phone and it didn't work, because consumers didn't follow.
AJ007 5y ago
Hard to see that lasting more than another 2-3 years.
marcellus23 5y ago
They’re the ones providing everything from the OS through the dev environment and the hosting and payment processing, not to mention marketing and having built the billion devices that users are purchasing from.

kizer 5y ago

I could see them launching an Android “SurfacePhone” just because (to have SOME stance in mobile). Or Windows-based since Windows already has an android subsystem (or emulator right?).

mdoms 5y ago
It's called the Surface Duo, it's already on its second generation. https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/d/surface-duo-2/9408kgxp4xjl?activetab=pivot:overviewtab https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/d/surface-duo-2/9408kgxp4xjl...
- pram 5y ago
  $1500 Android phone is giving me some Ballmer-era level laughs.
  - leppr 5y ago
    The Samsung Fold 3 was around this price at launch.
  - fomine3 5y ago
    Nowadays it's fine if it is made well (actually not good even in 2nd gen, for software)
- kyriakos 5y ago
  I honestly don't understand which market segment that device is targeted to.
- oneeyedpigeon 5y ago
  That's a foldable phone that you never use in 'full screen' mode, correct? For $1,500? Ouch.
- lmm 5y ago
  Hmm, if it had a headphone jack and NFC-F (which it seems the Japanese edition might?) I'd be interested. Microsoft has always made good hardware.

sylens 5y ago

Purely anecdotal but I feel like we are at a point where a lot of people would definitely stop and take a close look at a non-Android alternative to the iPhone

kyriakos 5y ago
Would be really hard to launch a new platform. Even if its excellent on its own unfortunately it can't survive without a big app catalog.
- sylens 5y ago
  Yes, it would definitely be an uphill battle. But I wonder if you could build a platform where a progressive web app felt enough like a mobile app and therefore enticed more app developers than requiring them to learn native tools for another platform
  - leppr 5y ago
    Ever heard of Firefox OS? https://medium.com/@bfrancis/the-legacy-of-firefox-os-c58ec32d94f0 https://medium.com/@bfrancis/the-legacy-of-firefox-os-c58ec3...
  - frivoal 5y ago
    Can a new phone platform be successful if it launches without whatsapp / wechat / line / instagram / [add a dozen social networks there]? A phone that doesn't let you speak to your friends, family, and coworkers is going to be a tough sell. Getting all those from the get go, without a large user base to motivate the developers, is going to be a tough sell.
- friedman23 5y ago
  Easy solution, make the default app platform be based off of html/css/javascript. Now the entire ecosystem of web developers can build for your platform instantly.
  - 5y ago