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I said this again recently, but it's worth repeating: Netflix is on the very fast downward slope. Their catalog is wilting, the space is heating up with well-es

I said this again recently, but it's worth repeating: Netflix is on the very fast downward slope. Their catalog is wilting, the space is heating up with well-established competitors moving in and serving the precise content that Netflix originally built their brand on, and their efforts to fund a new catalog with new IP (and taking ownership of old IP) is destroying the business model that made them so appealing in the first place. The writing is very nearly on the wall. At one point, long ago, the Netflix CEO (?) said they were trying to become HBO before HBO became them. And, frankly, they failed. They are still the industry leader, but only for a moment.

moneywoes 5y ago
Would suggest long term puts? Not sure if the gaming pivot can be successful
tomrod 5y ago
Their mobile app was offering games the other day. I think they have some ideas how to diversify. Also, they are global. Are HBO, Disney+, Paramount, Peacock the same? (I leave Hulu off as it seems to limp along? Not sure).
- jb1991 5y ago
  I'm not sure what you mean by Global, exactly, but Disney+ covers all of North and South America, Europe, Australia, all of S.E. Asia, India, New Zealand, and parts of Africa (including soon South Africa).
  - jeromegv 5y ago
    Disney+ is only available in Singapore and India, not sure why you're saying it's everywhere in South East Asia https://www.bestvpnfordisneyplus.com/blogs/when-is-disney-plus-coming-to-my-country/ https://www.bestvpnfordisneyplus.com/blogs/when-is-disney-pl... https://help.disneyplus.com/csp?id=csp_article_content&sys_kb_id=54648677dbb23894ac7ceacb139619f2 https://help.disneyplus.com/csp?id=csp_article_content&sys_k...
    - jb1991 5y ago
      >Disney+ is only available in Singapore and India, not sure why you're saying it's everywhere in South East Asia That's incorrect. >Disney Plus Malaysia officially launched on 1st June 2021, making streaming Disney+ movies and series more accessible and worth the purchase in Malaysia. After Indonesia and Singapore, Malaysia has become the third South East Asian country to get Disney+ as Disney Plus Hotstar in collaboration with Astro Malaysia. It is also available in Thailand, but Philippines is only announced to be coming soon.
      - JCharante 5y ago
        Well it's not available in Vietnam, which sucks because I need to catch up on the mandalorian.
        mvanbaak 5y ago
        torrent it?
  - dmitriid 5y ago
    Do they offer the same shows and movies in Europe as they do in the US though?
    - arbitrage 5y ago
      Does Netflix? Does anyone?
      - jorams 5y ago
        Wikipedia shows the vast, vast majority of Netflix original programming is available globally, with only 6 exceptions[1]. [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Netflix_original_programming#Regional_original_programming https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Netflix_original_progr...
  - gbil 5y ago
    >Disney+ covers all of .. Europe.. nope, not available in my country and it is clear from their list too: https://help.disneyplus.com/csp?id=csp_article_content&sys_kb_id=54648677dbb23894ac7ceacb139619f2 https://help.disneyplus.com/csp?id=csp_article_content&sys_k...
    - jb1991 5y ago
      I was including those countries where it has been announced it will be launching soon, so perhaps you are in one of those.
      - gbil 5y ago
        I’m pretty sure there is no such announcement, if you can point to it I’d appreciate it
        jb1991 5y ago
        Which country?
- discardable_dan 5y ago
  A few things: First, Netflix' games have the same issue as Apple Arcade: the majority are ad-riddled trash. And Apple Arcade has App Store tie-in. Second, the global numbers are likely to keep Netflix afloat (the same way they seem to for Facebook), but stateside numbers are abysmal compared to emerging services [0]: Netflix boasts 74.02 million subscribers in U.S. and Canada, and HBO Max has 45.2 million domestic (give or take 5 million). Within a year of launch, HBO Max has captured 2/3 the subscription size of Netflix! (Globally, it is barely doing double the numbers of Disney+.) The other competition has proven itself viable in a fraction of the time, and are using their built-in infrastructure to continue to compete. Netflix no longer has any differentiating factor, except that their US adult-targeted content is usually lower quality. 0. https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/10/disney-netflix-and-other-streaming-services-subs-arpu-q3-2021.html https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/10/disney-netflix-and-other-str...
  - jbluepolarbear 5y ago
    What Apple Arcade games have ads? The whole point of arcade is to provide ad-free games.
    - croon 5y ago
      They are games designed for ads/microtransactions, but those parts cut out, usually leaving a grindy mess with no shortcuts (paid or otherwise). I won't say every, but most games that aren't designed as pay-once are just elaborate dopamine slot machines, with no winners. The exceptions are few.
      - Asmod4n 5y ago
        Apple Arcade games can’t have Ads or IAPs.
        croon 5y ago
        From my post: > , but those parts cut out, usually leaving a grindy mess with no shortcuts (paid or otherwise).
- oneoff786 5y ago
  An unrelated, highly competitive area with many entrenched players already. Not a great pick to bolster growth imo.
nikanj 5y ago
Most of the competitors can lean on a decades long backlog of hits that attract people. Netflix needs to build everything from scratch, and the cost of creating TV series is ridiculously high nowadays
- shellfishgene 5y ago
  I wonder what the percentage of old shows is in total watched minutes. I almost never watch shows or movies older than ~2 years or so. I'm sure that's different for kid's movies, but I think I'm not too much of an exception.
  - ghostpepper 5y ago
    I am the opposite. Almost none of the new Netflix content appeals to me, but I watch re-runs of things like The Office and Seinfeld.
    - JKCalhoun 5y ago
      Ha ha, I'm a bit like you but I instead scour YouTube for even older shows like "Route 66" or the old "You Bet Your Life".
      - mbg721 5y ago
        Interestingly, "You Bet Your Life" highlighted the fact that Groucho Marx got old, and it's weird in kind of the same way that Elvis getting old is weird.
        JKCalhoun 5y ago
        Interesting in other social ways as well — Groucho was allowed to (literally) "cat-call" the attractive female guests on his show. I suppose there was a sieve that their guests went through but it is still fascinating to see the parade of suburban Los-angelites: housewives, people with strong ethnic ties to the "old country" that had yet to be melted into the pot that was 1950's America. Who knew door to door salesman really was a typical working class occupation?
fullshark 5y ago
My personal taste agrees with this based on viewing their catalogue, but i'd like to see evidence that consumers agree, maybe the upcoming earnings report will show cracks in the foundation. Netflix has seemed pretty barren for a while and in trouble imo but then something like Squid Game becomes a global phenomenon and you realize that they have 213 million subscribers globally and likely a pretty good understanding at this point of what drives retention/churn.
- rkagerer 5y ago
  This is purely anecdotal and subjective but I've tended to dislike Netflix's taste in content as well. I refused to subscribe for years as every time I watched Netflix at someone else's house it seemed to follow the same shallow, drivelly formula. That said there have been a few gems I loved as the volume of content grew, and I get some endurance out of their library of classics (content produced back in the network television days).
- UnpossibleJim 5y ago
  Speaking of global, I have noticed that Netflix is one of the few who offers a variety of non-English/American targeted shows. There are quite a few Indian, Mandarin and Latino focused programs in their lineup, which I haven't seen on the other channels (except for HBO en Español). Could it be that Netflix has seen that they can't compete in a crowded market with "the big boys" (though their bank share might disagree) and they're making the prudent, global market move? (I'm totally speculating and genuinely looking for an answer. Global enterprise is so far from my field) EDIT: grammar
  - rjtavares 5y ago
    Yeah, it's pretty intentional. IIRC they set a few strategic international markets where they want to be the best content producer. They've been quite successful in that: Lupin (France), Dark (Germany), Money Heist and Elite (Spain); Kingdom and Squid Game (South Korea).
    - krinchan 5y ago
brightball 5y ago
When the ATT spin off of Warner & HBO goes through and merges with Discovery it’s probably going to create long term power house.
- lotsofpulp 5y ago
  Considering the type of content Discovery puts out and the old HBO bosses are all gone, I predict HBO quality takes a deep dive.
samwillis 5y ago
While I don't entirely agree with you I do think the price of Netflix is getting a little higher than the value we personally get out of it. Our personal breakdown this year (in the UK): Adults in the house, we are quite picky but if we love it then we will keep watching: Netflix @£9.99: 2 tv shows, 4-5 films Apple TV+ @£4.99: 3 tv shows, 2 films Disney Plus @£7.99: 1 tv show, Loads of movies Amazon Prime @£7.99: 3 tv shows, quite a few films, plus "free" shipping! Kids (3 and 7): Netflix: They watch quite quite allot but we don't give them free access even to the kids profile (*see note) Apple TV+: Only 1 tv show, but haven't really explored. Disney Plus: All of it, I think they have "completed" it!... Amazon Prime: None Disney is by far the best value for money for us as a family, Apple TV+ for us grownups is best value. I don't think we would get rid of any but Netflix is probably now the least value. Point is, Netflix know from their retention metrics that you only need a couple of shows that a customer loves to keep them subscribed. Add in some content to amuse their kids and it's a done deal. *Note: Netflix seems to still show image for adult shows in search results in the kids profile even if not available when clicked on, some of this images can be quite aggressive. Hence not giving the kids free access
- discardable_dan 5y ago
  I'm about in your boat, except with HBO Max instead of Apple TV+ (their shows aren't as appealing to me). And as those numbers climb and I look at one to cut, Netflix is the easiest. That's the whole point, though: Netflix is going to be the service on the chopping block before these others.
  - ericmay 5y ago
    Why aren't Apple's shows (and movies?) appealing to you? If you dropped them on HBO I wouldn't know the difference. There are lots of different genres, great actors, and compelling stories. We have Netflix (via T-Mobile), Hulu, Prime, HBO, Disney+ and Apple TV. Some of these (Disney/Hulu) are from family or friends. WE only pay for Prime (probably the lowest quality of all of these) and Apple TV (because of Apple One subscription). HBO and Apple TV and Disney+ have the best quality content IMO. Netflix is kind of around there sometimes but a lot of just pure garbage (Looking at you Cowboy Bebop). Hulu isn't bad. Comparable to Netflix but less content. Prime is just bad for the most part. If Wal-Mart had launched it instead it's about what I'd expect it to be.
neximo64 5y ago
Completely disagree. This is about power, they are raising the price simply because they can and people will stay on. They've got a long way to go to increase it before the elasticity changes. The business model was never about being really underpriced, that was just a way to acquire customers.
- bogomipz 5y ago
  How do you imagine they are "raising the price simply because they can" when their growth has slowed[1] and they have decided to no longer use debt in order to finance content?[2] I think those two facts taken together are a much more plausible explanation of why they are raising prices i.e because they have to. Further given the competitive head-winds they're now facing streaming space they are definitely not in position of price leadership. [1] https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-netflix-growth-slows-streaming-pioneer-plans-to-open-up-its-viewer-metrics-11634690003 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-netflix-growth-slows-st... [2] https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/19/business/netflix-earnings-debt.html https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/19/business/netflix-earnings...
  - neximo64 5y ago
    Afaik their revenue hasn't dropped its only slowed - meaning the strategy works since it boosts their margins.
achow 5y ago
Totally Agree. It is well known proverb in showbiz - you are as good as your last hit. In this business you have to constantly be at the top to stay at the same place. There is no possibility to create a 'moat' in showbiz. Technology (distribution over internet) was once, but now that has become a commodity.
- criddell 5y ago
  You need hit shows, but they don't have to be new. For example, Disney+ has enough back catalog that they could probably shut down production and coast for years.
Gustomaximus 5y ago
I wouldn't write them off yet. Disney, Apple and Amazon seem the only real competitors as this is a game of scale. Disney is even more content limited and better for kids. Apple never got it right, cant see them fixing it now. And Amazon stuffed it between their mixed model where half the stuff you want to watch has extra fees + generally limited inclusive content, though the prime membership might buy that back. Both Disney and Amazon will fix the back catalogue with money I would guess, something Netflix should have done more aggressively before the competitors arrived. While Netflix content is on the decline, there is a huge inertia in the best existing catalogue + 200million subscribers. It does surprise they haven't flooded extra content on the price increase as that is a good way to justify to users. Nothing worse than feeling there's a lack of content + pay increase. My guess is Netflix keeps building the moat with content creation/ownership and we'll see mergers start kicking in as groups with back catalogues like HBO & NBC realise gaining/holding subscribers on smaller catalogues is hard and there more value in selling than renting. Who forks out more money at this point will probably win. Wild card is sport, that can be attractive and sticky if someone merges that in.
- Semaphor 5y ago
  > Wild card is sport, that can be attractive and sticky if someone merges that in. Amazon Prime Germany has been showing me adverts, that they have soccer/football games (not sure what league or if there is an extra cost associated as I don’t watch sports), so they are at least in some regions already there.
  - chihuahua 5y ago
    I know some people in Germany who are watching football on Amazon Prime Video. They get some Champions League games, but not all.
- FinalBriefing 5y ago
  What do you mean by "Apple never got it right"?
  - 5y ago
slibhb 5y ago
As far as I can tell they've succeeded at becoming HBO. I admire how the company has evolved over the years. It's cool that they distribute (and sometimes fund) movies made by excellent directors (Coens, Scorsese, Sorrentino). It does seem like a precarious business model: they have to keep picking or making winners but so far they're doing well.
- OskarS 5y ago
  > As far as I can tell they've succeeded at becoming HBO. Have they? Have they really? As far as I can tell, nothing that Netflix has ever done in-house has ever come close to the best of the cable channels. Like, The Witcher is fine, but Game of Thrones it is not, neither in quality nor buzz/cultural significance. House of Cards is no Succession and Ozark is no Breaking Bad. Nothing they have could even come close to comparing to stuff like The Sopranos or The Wire in terms of cultural impact. The closest they've ever come, in my opinion, is probably with Making a Murderer, and they've spent the last couple of years churning out pale imitations that make Netflix look like "True Crime TV". You're paraphrasing that quote from the Netflix CEO that goes like "We want to become HBO faster than HBO can become us". To me, HBO has won that race handily.
  - tptacek 5y ago
    Discussing only on the merits of their content, and stipulating that this is neither here nor there with respect to Netflix's long-term prospects vs. HBO: Breaking Bad isn't an HBO show. So I assume we're just asking, "has Netflix produced any world-class content". The answer to that is yes. The jewel in their crown, their "Game of Thrones", is clearly Stranger Things. It's undeniably successful, each new season a cultural event. I'd put Stranger Things up against any HBO show for relevance and impact. (Perhaps not for artistic excellence; but, The Wire is the best show that's ever been on television, and it's far from the most watched). Add to that Black Mirror, Bojack Horseman, Sex Ed, the annual Flanagan miniseries (Hill House, Bly Manor, Midnight Mass), Master of None, and Big Mouth. They're doing about as well as any premium cable channel ever has. Doesn't, of course, mean you like their content! But I have about as much faith in Netflix coming up with a new prestige show than I do in HBO, most of whose recent stuff has left me pretty cold.
thereddaikon 5y ago
They definitely have challenges but Netflix does have three original shows at the moment that I am watching and they are earning my subscription with.
lsrinivas 5y ago
It was Netflix's Chief Content Officer in 2013 who said 'The goal is to become HBO faster than HBO can become us.". I think this gent's now co CEO.
qudat 5y ago
Once The Office, Parks and Rec, and 30 Rock were removed from Netflix I haven't needed to resub since. The only sub I permanently keep is YoutubePremium.
- indigochill 5y ago
  At least two of those three went to Peacock (NBC's Netflix-like), though, right (maybe all three, I never followed Parks and Rec)? I imagine they'll be looking for a new home soon enough.
  - mbg721 5y ago
    After GE bought NBC, David Letterman joked that staff were encouraged to use Sylvania fluorescent bulbs as lightsabers. The top brass had little sense of humor then, and now that the studios own everything, I'm guessing much less now.
- Grustaf 5y ago
  The office is still there in the Danish version
- hotz 5y ago
  Only one I haven't seen in the South African catalogue is 30 Rock. I've been binging Parks and Rec. I blame the licencing agreements.
arch-ninja 5y ago
I cancelled my subscription shortly after they started getting rid of small-time films and started producing their own content; the two reasons were (1) I don't like businesses that can't cooperate with others and (2) their own content sucks and likely continues to suck to this day because their KPI is "how many people watched >1s of this?" and not "did we allow passionate, talented people to do work they are now proud of?".
- yonaguska 5y ago
  I actually surprisingly enjoy their international content, Dark, Squid Game, Vikings, etc- but their American content does suck. It also comes off as too preachy/propaganda-ish. If I was actually the one paying for the account, I simply wouldn't subscribe.
  - mandernt 5y ago
  - brummm 5y ago
    I don't think Vikings is a Netflix show.
- dylan-m 5y ago
  COVID should have helped them a lot: plenty of big, well made films suddenly needed a way to get in front of people that wasn't a movie theatre and they went with Netflix. (The Mitchells vs The Machines, for instance). Unfortunately, I think they've made two mistakes: what should be landmark content is just kind of muddled in there with pointless documentaries, shows that were immediately cancelled, and old second rate sitcoms; and they're way too aggressive with the Netflix branding, which has a poor reputation. It's over-saturated to the point that I can't imagine someone having a favourable impression when they see that extra Netflix logo on a piece of content. Ambivalent, at best. Just think if they used that kind of space for human curation, or to emphasize the excellent creators that are represented on their platform instead.
- epolanski 5y ago
dec0dedab0de 5y ago
I think Netflix is worth it for the comedy specials alone. Which was the only reason I ever got HBO back in the day. The original shows I watch are just icing on the cake. I think they would have more mindhsare if they released episodes weekly like Disney+ it's easy to forget how much you like a show when you only watch it one day a year. Now I have HBO for south park and then my family got into some of the DC shows. I'm cancelling after this season. Then turning it back on when Titans or young justice comes back. I want to make a script that suspends all my subscriptions every day, or cancels every month if youre not allowed to suspend. Then automatically signs me back up when I want to watch something. The main problem is you would need a reliable way to see every service's catalog without an active account.
- kevinmchugh 5y ago
  You could sign up and immediately cancel. Your access lasts a month at that point. I think JustWatch has notifications or emails for when new seasons drop. Also it's about the easiest task for a marketing team to email you to resubscribe when a new season of a show you watched comes out
  - dec0dedab0de 5y ago
    I know atleast one service that will cancel your service the minute you cancel, but yes canceling immediately would be the plan for services that don't have a suspend option like netflix. [1] As far as keeping up with the channels catalog, I meant I would want to build a discovery/search interface with data from every service so I could seamless signup/resume when I want to watch something. [1] njpwworld.com which is the streaming service for a japanese pro wrestling company, will cancel your subscription the moment you cancel, no matter how much time you have already paid for. So if you sign up and immediately cancel you would be charged for a month, but never get access to it.
xhkkffbf 5y ago
I can feel it happening. When Netflix was cheap, I kept it around and rented 2-3 movies a month. Now I have no interest in their new content and they don't have much old content anymore. It's now just too violent and sex obsessed for my tastes. They even continue to host "Riverdale", a show that tries to be hip and cool by rewriting Archie comics with plenty of statuatory rape. But it's not even presented as a bad thing. Just more "forbidden fruit."
J253 5y ago
> Netflix is on the very fast downward slope I definitely don’t disagree with this, but here’s a question for people: if Netflix used their original content budget to instead procure existing content like they originally did, would this save them? This is obviously complicated with everyone creating their own streaming service to charge for their own content, but I’d certainly be happier with Netflix if I had a much better selection of other stuff and not “Netflix Originals”.
- adgjlsfhk1 5y ago
  the problem is no one will sell to them.
- kmeisthax 5y ago
  The problem with the old Netflix business model is that it's basically just "cable but better". This only worked because streaming rights were priced cheaper than cable carriage fees, which wasn't going to last. If Netflix had continued just licensing existing shows and movies, they'd be charging closer to cable prices because they aren't getting a deal on licensing cost anymore.
partiallypro 5y ago
I really struggle finding a lot of stuff on Netflix, but frankly I do on most all of them. I know that Netflix actually has a much larger catalogue than I'm seeing when I login but it's impossible to get to in order to find anything. Amazon Prime video is even worse at discoverability. The thing is that Netflix has established itself as a staple and most no one is going to cancel it unless they are just hurting. Netflix knows that and has hiked prices to show it has market power. It's like Amazon Prime, I honestly don't order enough from Amazon to justify that expense each year but when I do use it, it's convient.
vmception 5y ago
Netflix content quality seems to be seasonal. Like instead of “netflix is garbage its oversaturated” it seems like they greenlight stuff in batches where some quality content is released all around the same time Just an observation
codazoda 5y ago
This is the first time I read about a price increase and thought, “do I really use Netflix much?” Right now I use prime more often and I bounce around with various add-one’s. Right now using Paramount Plus. And the voice-overs on Netflix are down right annoying. I wish I could hide content with voice overs. The translations are terribly comedic as they try to match the mouth movements somewhat. It’s terrible. I’m tired of sifting through them.
- ghaff 5y ago
  Yeah, this last increase got me thinking too. I don't have anything on my "must watch" list from Netflix and I've got four other services I either subscribe to myself or are on someone else's plan.
equalsione 5y ago
mandernt 5y ago
I disagree. The future of Netflix is in harnessing shows made all over the world. They’ve had some success with Korean and Indian shows so far but it is a vast untapped market especially when their audience is global too. They’ve also set bars for production value which results in world class content. My only qualm with them is they seem to enforce a feminist agenda where every show has to have a “strong, independent” woman character that turns out to be extremely limiting.
- epolanski 5y ago
  US users may not be aware that we get local content too. Netflix has produced few decent italian movies and shows. While we have abundance of platforms with fresh english content, that is not true for our own language.
bilater 5y ago
Respectfully, this is a lazy take. If you even slightly dig into the numbers the price increase makes complete sense. Netflix spent 17 billion dollars on content last year. They are outspending competitors 2 to 1 if not more. Their catalog is thriving - you have big names like DiCaprio, Jennifer Lawrence, Ryan Reynolds, Gal Gadot, The Rock etc signing on for movies. You have shows like Squid Game attracting ridiculous numbers. Netflix is, if anything, signaling how confident they are of their position by asserting their dominance over the market by raising rates. They know their offering is too good for subscribers to cancel. And most will gladly pay and keep paying if the Netflix content engine keeps churning.
- tomjen3 5y ago
  The benefit of Netflix was that you could binge 7 seasons of a show you didn't get to see back when it was new, for whatever reason. They have to heavily promote their own content and often there are only one or two "seasons", where a season is only about 10 episodes. In short they may be spending a ton on content, but so does all the others and while I do pay for Netflix, I continually wonder if I should just cancel.
  - andrew_ 5y ago
    That and they used to have an excellent catalog of movies. I haven't watched a full length feature film on Netflix in almost year, because all of it is such garbage. Prime Video has a better movie catalog than Netflix now. My kids very occasionally watch something on Netflix Kids, but that's not even compelling these days. It's a running joke in the household that my spouse will spend an hour trying to find something decent to watch, only to hand the remote to someone else, who immediately exits Netflix. And their original content is so bad often enough that we have to look at online reviews just to try to avoid wasting 30 minutes on something that'd make a B movie look good. Honestly I don't know why I'm still paying.
    - ethbr0 5y ago
      Netflix absolutely needs to deal with shitty content for the same reason that Amazon needs to deal with fakes or crap: it's an existential threat to their brand. Being Walmart doesn't work in a digital space, because you can't starve the business out from the physical neighborhood around you to prevent competition. And once people get it in their heads that "All movies on Netflix are trash" or "All stuff on Amazon is trash," you have a much bigger problem.
greg7gkb 5y ago
> Netflix is on the very fast downward slope I don't think the data is proving this out at all. Streaming will probably be a winner-take-most market and Netflix is on track to remain the leader. We'll see what total 2021 subscriber growth was on Thursday, but estimates for Q4 are still around a net addition of 8 million subscribers. Compare this with Disney Plus growth in the same period of 2 million subscribers and I think the results are quite favorable. If you pay attention to the details, such as in earnings calls, executives have reported that average subscriber watch time has only been increasing over the past few quarters. (Also see refs such as: https://backlinko.com/netflix-users#time-spent-with-netflix https://backlinko.com/netflix-users#time-spent-with-netflix) Keeping in mind that Covid has slowed production of content, in 2021 Netflix still managed to create the two most watched movies _ever_ on the platform (Red Notice, Don't Look Up). There are follow-up seasons launching for at least three of their strongest series, including Witcher (released tail end of 2021), Bridgerton, and Stranger Things. Plus the regular spikes of culturally relevant content such as Squid Games, Cheer, etc. which now happen fairly often. > is destroying the business model that made them so appealing in the first place I'm not sure how you are inferring that the business model has been destroyed here. It's certainly evolving over time but the promise has always been 'pay us a monthly subscription and we'll give you lots of things to watch'. I don't see how that has changed meaningfully or negatively. Netflix has had naysayers at every stage of its growth. The landscape is always changing but I believe the critical idea is that Netflix leads in streaming and this has only strengthened over time. Total subscribers, revenue per user, and watch hours per account are all drifting up, and I fail to see how that represents a downward slope.
- morelisp 5y ago
  > Netflix still managed to create the two most watched movies _ever_ on the platform By what metrics that they didn't slice just to be able to say this?
  - xref 5y ago
    Having seen how you can massage numbers to say basically whatever you want time and again, that was my immediate thought “Gremlins 2 is our most watched movie _ever_”* * featuring a monster made entirely out of vegetables
bluedino 5y ago
You only need 1 show for me to subscribe to your streaming service. It worked the same way during the cable days, I paid for HBO to watch the Sopranos, and canceled it 5 minutes after the series finale.
cutenewt 5y ago
The main take I get is that there isn't enough content to support all the streaming players in the marketplace. In the next five years, we should expecting the number of streaming players to consolidate dramatically probably to the top 3, whoever they might be.
birdyrooster 5y ago
I saw this reality working for them in 2012 and I lost a lot of money not buying the discounted options. When were pitching about becoming HBO before HBO became them, and I thought, who the hell wants to be in HBO’s market?? Netflix at that time was considered externally as a tech play but internally they always knew they would go Hollywood.
etempleton 5y ago
I think they are stumbling because they are trying to grow their catalog too fast. They have achieved a lot of this by taking on debt, not an unresonable amount, but I think they have too much money to burn and that means they aren’t always making smart or selective bets on content. In the beginning of their foray into original content it felt like everything was good or at least interesting even if it wasn’t for me. Now it feels like they have a new original every week, but less that I find compelling or even watchable. A lot of it is lowest common denometer trash content. They risk being associated with that. I once associated them with high quality content even if it was low budget. Now I associate them with shows that feel like were concepted and written by a user acquisition algorithm. At some point they decided Netflix is for every human on earth and to be for everyone you have to have content that can be digested by everyone, but to do that you make a pretty bland product without much taste.
gremlinsinc 5y ago
I actually like their content, but I do feel like they'll eventually fizzle out... the only chance they have to compete w/ Disney is join forces w/ Amazon, or just sell out to Disney. Either of those would make me happy cause then it'd presumably be a bundled service... maybe $15 for hulu, netflix, and disney+. or slightly higher prime membership but much better content+interface. (Hopefully prime would move all their free stuff for prime members just to the netflix apps/ui/etc.

moneywoes 5y ago

Would suggest long term puts? Not sure if the gaming pivot can be successful

tomrod 5y ago

Their mobile app was offering games the other day. I think they have some ideas how to diversify. Also, they are global. Are HBO, Disney+, Paramount, Peacock the same? (I leave Hulu off as it seems to limp along? Not sure).

jb1991 5y ago
I'm not sure what you mean by Global, exactly, but Disney+ covers all of North and South America, Europe, Australia, all of S.E. Asia, India, New Zealand, and parts of Africa (including soon South Africa).
- jeromegv 5y ago
  Disney+ is only available in Singapore and India, not sure why you're saying it's everywhere in South East Asia https://www.bestvpnfordisneyplus.com/blogs/when-is-disney-plus-coming-to-my-country/ https://www.bestvpnfordisneyplus.com/blogs/when-is-disney-pl... https://help.disneyplus.com/csp?id=csp_article_content&sys_kb_id=54648677dbb23894ac7ceacb139619f2 https://help.disneyplus.com/csp?id=csp_article_content&sys_k...
  - jb1991 5y ago
    >Disney+ is only available in Singapore and India, not sure why you're saying it's everywhere in South East Asia That's incorrect. >Disney Plus Malaysia officially launched on 1st June 2021, making streaming Disney+ movies and series more accessible and worth the purchase in Malaysia. After Indonesia and Singapore, Malaysia has become the third South East Asian country to get Disney+ as Disney Plus Hotstar in collaboration with Astro Malaysia. It is also available in Thailand, but Philippines is only announced to be coming soon.
    - JCharante 5y ago
      Well it's not available in Vietnam, which sucks because I need to catch up on the mandalorian.
      - mvanbaak 5y ago
        torrent it?
- dmitriid 5y ago
  Do they offer the same shows and movies in Europe as they do in the US though?
  - arbitrage 5y ago
    Does Netflix? Does anyone?
    - jorams 5y ago
      Wikipedia shows the vast, vast majority of Netflix original programming is available globally, with only 6 exceptions[1]. [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Netflix_original_programming#Regional_original_programming https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Netflix_original_progr...
- gbil 5y ago
  >Disney+ covers all of .. Europe.. nope, not available in my country and it is clear from their list too: https://help.disneyplus.com/csp?id=csp_article_content&sys_kb_id=54648677dbb23894ac7ceacb139619f2 https://help.disneyplus.com/csp?id=csp_article_content&sys_k...
  - jb1991 5y ago
    I was including those countries where it has been announced it will be launching soon, so perhaps you are in one of those.
    - gbil 5y ago
      I’m pretty sure there is no such announcement, if you can point to it I’d appreciate it
      - jb1991 5y ago
        Which country?
discardable_dan 5y ago
A few things: First, Netflix' games have the same issue as Apple Arcade: the majority are ad-riddled trash. And Apple Arcade has App Store tie-in. Second, the global numbers are likely to keep Netflix afloat (the same way they seem to for Facebook), but stateside numbers are abysmal compared to emerging services [0]: Netflix boasts 74.02 million subscribers in U.S. and Canada, and HBO Max has 45.2 million domestic (give or take 5 million). Within a year of launch, HBO Max has captured 2/3 the subscription size of Netflix! (Globally, it is barely doing double the numbers of Disney+.) The other competition has proven itself viable in a fraction of the time, and are using their built-in infrastructure to continue to compete. Netflix no longer has any differentiating factor, except that their US adult-targeted content is usually lower quality. 0. https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/10/disney-netflix-and-other-streaming-services-subs-arpu-q3-2021.html https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/10/disney-netflix-and-other-str...
- jbluepolarbear 5y ago
  What Apple Arcade games have ads? The whole point of arcade is to provide ad-free games.
  - croon 5y ago
    They are games designed for ads/microtransactions, but those parts cut out, usually leaving a grindy mess with no shortcuts (paid or otherwise). I won't say every, but most games that aren't designed as pay-once are just elaborate dopamine slot machines, with no winners. The exceptions are few.
    - Asmod4n 5y ago
      Apple Arcade games can’t have Ads or IAPs.
      - croon 5y ago
        From my post: > , but those parts cut out, usually leaving a grindy mess with no shortcuts (paid or otherwise).
oneoff786 5y ago
An unrelated, highly competitive area with many entrenched players already. Not a great pick to bolster growth imo.

nikanj 5y ago

Most of the competitors can lean on a decades long backlog of hits that attract people. Netflix needs to build everything from scratch, and the cost of creating TV series is ridiculously high nowadays

shellfishgene 5y ago
I wonder what the percentage of old shows is in total watched minutes. I almost never watch shows or movies older than ~2 years or so. I'm sure that's different for kid's movies, but I think I'm not too much of an exception.
- ghostpepper 5y ago
  I am the opposite. Almost none of the new Netflix content appeals to me, but I watch re-runs of things like The Office and Seinfeld.
  - JKCalhoun 5y ago
    Ha ha, I'm a bit like you but I instead scour YouTube for even older shows like "Route 66" or the old "You Bet Your Life".
    - mbg721 5y ago
      Interestingly, "You Bet Your Life" highlighted the fact that Groucho Marx got old, and it's weird in kind of the same way that Elvis getting old is weird.
      - JKCalhoun 5y ago
        Interesting in other social ways as well — Groucho was allowed to (literally) "cat-call" the attractive female guests on his show. I suppose there was a sieve that their guests went through but it is still fascinating to see the parade of suburban Los-angelites: housewives, people with strong ethnic ties to the "old country" that had yet to be melted into the pot that was 1950's America. Who knew door to door salesman really was a typical working class occupation?

fullshark 5y ago

My personal taste agrees with this based on viewing their catalogue, but i'd like to see evidence that consumers agree, maybe the upcoming earnings report will show cracks in the foundation. Netflix has seemed pretty barren for a while and in trouble imo but then something like Squid Game becomes a global phenomenon and you realize that they have 213 million subscribers globally and likely a pretty good understanding at this point of what drives retention/churn.

rkagerer 5y ago
This is purely anecdotal and subjective but I've tended to dislike Netflix's taste in content as well. I refused to subscribe for years as every time I watched Netflix at someone else's house it seemed to follow the same shallow, drivelly formula. That said there have been a few gems I loved as the volume of content grew, and I get some endurance out of their library of classics (content produced back in the network television days).
UnpossibleJim 5y ago
Speaking of global, I have noticed that Netflix is one of the few who offers a variety of non-English/American targeted shows. There are quite a few Indian, Mandarin and Latino focused programs in their lineup, which I haven't seen on the other channels (except for HBO en Español). Could it be that Netflix has seen that they can't compete in a crowded market with "the big boys" (though their bank share might disagree) and they're making the prudent, global market move? (I'm totally speculating and genuinely looking for an answer. Global enterprise is so far from my field) EDIT: grammar
- rjtavares 5y ago
  Yeah, it's pretty intentional. IIRC they set a few strategic international markets where they want to be the best content producer. They've been quite successful in that: Lupin (France), Dark (Germany), Money Heist and Elite (Spain); Kingdom and Squid Game (South Korea).
  - krinchan 5y ago

brightball 5y ago

When the ATT spin off of Warner & HBO goes through and merges with Discovery it’s probably going to create long term power house.

lotsofpulp 5y ago
Considering the type of content Discovery puts out and the old HBO bosses are all gone, I predict HBO quality takes a deep dive.

samwillis 5y ago

While I don't entirely agree with you I do think the price of Netflix is getting a little higher than the value we personally get out of it. Our personal breakdown this year (in the UK): Adults in the house, we are quite picky but if we love it then we will keep watching: Netflix @£9.99: 2 tv shows, 4-5 films Apple TV+ @£4.99: 3 tv shows, 2 films Disney Plus @£7.99: 1 tv show, Loads of movies Amazon Prime @£7.99: 3 tv shows, quite a few films, plus "free" shipping! Kids (3 and 7): Netflix: They watch quite quite allot but we don't give them free access even to the kids profile (*see note) Apple TV+: Only 1 tv show, but haven't really explored. Disney Plus: All of it, I think they have "completed" it!... Amazon Prime: None Disney is by far the best value for money for us as a family, Apple TV+ for us grownups is best value. I don't think we would get rid of any but Netflix is probably now the least value. Point is, Netflix know from their retention metrics that you only need a couple of shows that a customer loves to keep them subscribed. Add in some content to amuse their kids and it's a done deal. *Note: Netflix seems to still show image for adult shows in search results in the kids profile even if not available when clicked on, some of this images can be quite aggressive. Hence not giving the kids free access

discardable_dan 5y ago
I'm about in your boat, except with HBO Max instead of Apple TV+ (their shows aren't as appealing to me). And as those numbers climb and I look at one to cut, Netflix is the easiest. That's the whole point, though: Netflix is going to be the service on the chopping block before these others.
- ericmay 5y ago
  Why aren't Apple's shows (and movies?) appealing to you? If you dropped them on HBO I wouldn't know the difference. There are lots of different genres, great actors, and compelling stories. We have Netflix (via T-Mobile), Hulu, Prime, HBO, Disney+ and Apple TV. Some of these (Disney/Hulu) are from family or friends. WE only pay for Prime (probably the lowest quality of all of these) and Apple TV (because of Apple One subscription). HBO and Apple TV and Disney+ have the best quality content IMO. Netflix is kind of around there sometimes but a lot of just pure garbage (Looking at you Cowboy Bebop). Hulu isn't bad. Comparable to Netflix but less content. Prime is just bad for the most part. If Wal-Mart had launched it instead it's about what I'd expect it to be.

neximo64 5y ago

Completely disagree. This is about power, they are raising the price simply because they can and people will stay on. They've got a long way to go to increase it before the elasticity changes. The business model was never about being really underpriced, that was just a way to acquire customers.

bogomipz 5y ago
How do you imagine they are "raising the price simply because they can" when their growth has slowed[1] and they have decided to no longer use debt in order to finance content?[2] I think those two facts taken together are a much more plausible explanation of why they are raising prices i.e because they have to. Further given the competitive head-winds they're now facing streaming space they are definitely not in position of price leadership. [1] https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-netflix-growth-slows-streaming-pioneer-plans-to-open-up-its-viewer-metrics-11634690003 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-netflix-growth-slows-st... [2] https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/19/business/netflix-earnings-debt.html https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/19/business/netflix-earnings...
- neximo64 5y ago
  Afaik their revenue hasn't dropped its only slowed - meaning the strategy works since it boosts their margins.

achow 5y ago

Totally Agree. It is well known proverb in showbiz - you are as good as your last hit. In this business you have to constantly be at the top to stay at the same place. There is no possibility to create a 'moat' in showbiz. Technology (distribution over internet) was once, but now that has become a commodity.

criddell 5y ago
You need hit shows, but they don't have to be new. For example, Disney+ has enough back catalog that they could probably shut down production and coast for years.

Gustomaximus 5y ago

I wouldn't write them off yet. Disney, Apple and Amazon seem the only real competitors as this is a game of scale. Disney is even more content limited and better for kids. Apple never got it right, cant see them fixing it now. And Amazon stuffed it between their mixed model where half the stuff you want to watch has extra fees + generally limited inclusive content, though the prime membership might buy that back. Both Disney and Amazon will fix the back catalogue with money I would guess, something Netflix should have done more aggressively before the competitors arrived. While Netflix content is on the decline, there is a huge inertia in the best existing catalogue + 200million subscribers. It does surprise they haven't flooded extra content on the price increase as that is a good way to justify to users. Nothing worse than feeling there's a lack of content + pay increase. My guess is Netflix keeps building the moat with content creation/ownership and we'll see mergers start kicking in as groups with back catalogues like HBO & NBC realise gaining/holding subscribers on smaller catalogues is hard and there more value in selling than renting. Who forks out more money at this point will probably win. Wild card is sport, that can be attractive and sticky if someone merges that in.

Semaphor 5y ago
> Wild card is sport, that can be attractive and sticky if someone merges that in. Amazon Prime Germany has been showing me adverts, that they have soccer/football games (not sure what league or if there is an extra cost associated as I don’t watch sports), so they are at least in some regions already there.
- chihuahua 5y ago
  I know some people in Germany who are watching football on Amazon Prime Video. They get some Champions League games, but not all.
FinalBriefing 5y ago
What do you mean by "Apple never got it right"?
- 5y ago

slibhb 5y ago

As far as I can tell they've succeeded at becoming HBO. I admire how the company has evolved over the years. It's cool that they distribute (and sometimes fund) movies made by excellent directors (Coens, Scorsese, Sorrentino). It does seem like a precarious business model: they have to keep picking or making winners but so far they're doing well.

OskarS 5y ago
> As far as I can tell they've succeeded at becoming HBO. Have they? Have they really? As far as I can tell, nothing that Netflix has ever done in-house has ever come close to the best of the cable channels. Like, The Witcher is fine, but Game of Thrones it is not, neither in quality nor buzz/cultural significance. House of Cards is no Succession and Ozark is no Breaking Bad. Nothing they have could even come close to comparing to stuff like The Sopranos or The Wire in terms of cultural impact. The closest they've ever come, in my opinion, is probably with Making a Murderer, and they've spent the last couple of years churning out pale imitations that make Netflix look like "True Crime TV". You're paraphrasing that quote from the Netflix CEO that goes like "We want to become HBO faster than HBO can become us". To me, HBO has won that race handily.
- tptacek 5y ago
  Discussing only on the merits of their content, and stipulating that this is neither here nor there with respect to Netflix's long-term prospects vs. HBO: Breaking Bad isn't an HBO show. So I assume we're just asking, "has Netflix produced any world-class content". The answer to that is yes. The jewel in their crown, their "Game of Thrones", is clearly Stranger Things. It's undeniably successful, each new season a cultural event. I'd put Stranger Things up against any HBO show for relevance and impact. (Perhaps not for artistic excellence; but, The Wire is the best show that's ever been on television, and it's far from the most watched). Add to that Black Mirror, Bojack Horseman, Sex Ed, the annual Flanagan miniseries (Hill House, Bly Manor, Midnight Mass), Master of None, and Big Mouth. They're doing about as well as any premium cable channel ever has. Doesn't, of course, mean you like their content! But I have about as much faith in Netflix coming up with a new prestige show than I do in HBO, most of whose recent stuff has left me pretty cold.

thereddaikon 5y ago

They definitely have challenges but Netflix does have three original shows at the moment that I am watching and they are earning my subscription with.

lsrinivas 5y ago

It was Netflix's Chief Content Officer in 2013 who said 'The goal is to become HBO faster than HBO can become us.". I think this gent's now co CEO.

qudat 5y ago

Once The Office, Parks and Rec, and 30 Rock were removed from Netflix I haven't needed to resub since. The only sub I permanently keep is YoutubePremium.

indigochill 5y ago
At least two of those three went to Peacock (NBC's Netflix-like), though, right (maybe all three, I never followed Parks and Rec)? I imagine they'll be looking for a new home soon enough.
- mbg721 5y ago
  After GE bought NBC, David Letterman joked that staff were encouraged to use Sylvania fluorescent bulbs as lightsabers. The top brass had little sense of humor then, and now that the studios own everything, I'm guessing much less now.
Grustaf 5y ago
The office is still there in the Danish version
hotz 5y ago
Only one I haven't seen in the South African catalogue is 30 Rock. I've been binging Parks and Rec. I blame the licencing agreements.

arch-ninja 5y ago

I cancelled my subscription shortly after they started getting rid of small-time films and started producing their own content; the two reasons were (1) I don't like businesses that can't cooperate with others and (2) their own content sucks and likely continues to suck to this day because their KPI is "how many people watched >1s of this?" and not "did we allow passionate, talented people to do work they are now proud of?".

yonaguska 5y ago
I actually surprisingly enjoy their international content, Dark, Squid Game, Vikings, etc- but their American content does suck. It also comes off as too preachy/propaganda-ish. If I was actually the one paying for the account, I simply wouldn't subscribe.
- mandernt 5y ago
- brummm 5y ago
  I don't think Vikings is a Netflix show.
dylan-m 5y ago
COVID should have helped them a lot: plenty of big, well made films suddenly needed a way to get in front of people that wasn't a movie theatre and they went with Netflix. (The Mitchells vs The Machines, for instance). Unfortunately, I think they've made two mistakes: what should be landmark content is just kind of muddled in there with pointless documentaries, shows that were immediately cancelled, and old second rate sitcoms; and they're way too aggressive with the Netflix branding, which has a poor reputation. It's over-saturated to the point that I can't imagine someone having a favourable impression when they see that extra Netflix logo on a piece of content. Ambivalent, at best. Just think if they used that kind of space for human curation, or to emphasize the excellent creators that are represented on their platform instead.
epolanski 5y ago

dec0dedab0de 5y ago

I think Netflix is worth it for the comedy specials alone. Which was the only reason I ever got HBO back in the day. The original shows I watch are just icing on the cake. I think they would have more mindhsare if they released episodes weekly like Disney+ it's easy to forget how much you like a show when you only watch it one day a year. Now I have HBO for south park and then my family got into some of the DC shows. I'm cancelling after this season. Then turning it back on when Titans or young justice comes back. I want to make a script that suspends all my subscriptions every day, or cancels every month if youre not allowed to suspend. Then automatically signs me back up when I want to watch something. The main problem is you would need a reliable way to see every service's catalog without an active account.

kevinmchugh 5y ago
You could sign up and immediately cancel. Your access lasts a month at that point. I think JustWatch has notifications or emails for when new seasons drop. Also it's about the easiest task for a marketing team to email you to resubscribe when a new season of a show you watched comes out
- dec0dedab0de 5y ago
  I know atleast one service that will cancel your service the minute you cancel, but yes canceling immediately would be the plan for services that don't have a suspend option like netflix. [1] As far as keeping up with the channels catalog, I meant I would want to build a discovery/search interface with data from every service so I could seamless signup/resume when I want to watch something. [1] njpwworld.com which is the streaming service for a japanese pro wrestling company, will cancel your subscription the moment you cancel, no matter how much time you have already paid for. So if you sign up and immediately cancel you would be charged for a month, but never get access to it.

xhkkffbf 5y ago

I can feel it happening. When Netflix was cheap, I kept it around and rented 2-3 movies a month. Now I have no interest in their new content and they don't have much old content anymore. It's now just too violent and sex obsessed for my tastes. They even continue to host "Riverdale", a show that tries to be hip and cool by rewriting Archie comics with plenty of statuatory rape. But it's not even presented as a bad thing. Just more "forbidden fruit."

J253 5y ago

> Netflix is on the very fast downward slope I definitely don’t disagree with this, but here’s a question for people: if Netflix used their original content budget to instead procure existing content like they originally did, would this save them? This is obviously complicated with everyone creating their own streaming service to charge for their own content, but I’d certainly be happier with Netflix if I had a much better selection of other stuff and not “Netflix Originals”.

adgjlsfhk1 5y ago
the problem is no one will sell to them.
kmeisthax 5y ago
The problem with the old Netflix business model is that it's basically just "cable but better". This only worked because streaming rights were priced cheaper than cable carriage fees, which wasn't going to last. If Netflix had continued just licensing existing shows and movies, they'd be charging closer to cable prices because they aren't getting a deal on licensing cost anymore.

partiallypro 5y ago

I really struggle finding a lot of stuff on Netflix, but frankly I do on most all of them. I know that Netflix actually has a much larger catalogue than I'm seeing when I login but it's impossible to get to in order to find anything. Amazon Prime video is even worse at discoverability. The thing is that Netflix has established itself as a staple and most no one is going to cancel it unless they are just hurting. Netflix knows that and has hiked prices to show it has market power. It's like Amazon Prime, I honestly don't order enough from Amazon to justify that expense each year but when I do use it, it's convient.

vmception 5y ago

Netflix content quality seems to be seasonal. Like instead of “netflix is garbage its oversaturated” it seems like they greenlight stuff in batches where some quality content is released all around the same time Just an observation

codazoda 5y ago

This is the first time I read about a price increase and thought, “do I really use Netflix much?” Right now I use prime more often and I bounce around with various add-one’s. Right now using Paramount Plus. And the voice-overs on Netflix are down right annoying. I wish I could hide content with voice overs. The translations are terribly comedic as they try to match the mouth movements somewhat. It’s terrible. I’m tired of sifting through them.

ghaff 5y ago
Yeah, this last increase got me thinking too. I don't have anything on my "must watch" list from Netflix and I've got four other services I either subscribe to myself or are on someone else's plan.

equalsione 5y ago

mandernt 5y ago

I disagree. The future of Netflix is in harnessing shows made all over the world. They’ve had some success with Korean and Indian shows so far but it is a vast untapped market especially when their audience is global too. They’ve also set bars for production value which results in world class content. My only qualm with them is they seem to enforce a feminist agenda where every show has to have a “strong, independent” woman character that turns out to be extremely limiting.

epolanski 5y ago
US users may not be aware that we get local content too. Netflix has produced few decent italian movies and shows. While we have abundance of platforms with fresh english content, that is not true for our own language.

bilater 5y ago

Respectfully, this is a lazy take. If you even slightly dig into the numbers the price increase makes complete sense. Netflix spent 17 billion dollars on content last year. They are outspending competitors 2 to 1 if not more. Their catalog is thriving - you have big names like DiCaprio, Jennifer Lawrence, Ryan Reynolds, Gal Gadot, The Rock etc signing on for movies. You have shows like Squid Game attracting ridiculous numbers. Netflix is, if anything, signaling how confident they are of their position by asserting their dominance over the market by raising rates. They know their offering is too good for subscribers to cancel. And most will gladly pay and keep paying if the Netflix content engine keeps churning.

tomjen3 5y ago
The benefit of Netflix was that you could binge 7 seasons of a show you didn't get to see back when it was new, for whatever reason. They have to heavily promote their own content and often there are only one or two "seasons", where a season is only about 10 episodes. In short they may be spending a ton on content, but so does all the others and while I do pay for Netflix, I continually wonder if I should just cancel.
- andrew_ 5y ago
  That and they used to have an excellent catalog of movies. I haven't watched a full length feature film on Netflix in almost year, because all of it is such garbage. Prime Video has a better movie catalog than Netflix now. My kids very occasionally watch something on Netflix Kids, but that's not even compelling these days. It's a running joke in the household that my spouse will spend an hour trying to find something decent to watch, only to hand the remote to someone else, who immediately exits Netflix. And their original content is so bad often enough that we have to look at online reviews just to try to avoid wasting 30 minutes on something that'd make a B movie look good. Honestly I don't know why I'm still paying.
  - ethbr0 5y ago
    Netflix absolutely needs to deal with shitty content for the same reason that Amazon needs to deal with fakes or crap: it's an existential threat to their brand. Being Walmart doesn't work in a digital space, because you can't starve the business out from the physical neighborhood around you to prevent competition. And once people get it in their heads that "All movies on Netflix are trash" or "All stuff on Amazon is trash," you have a much bigger problem.

greg7gkb 5y ago

> Netflix is on the very fast downward slope I don't think the data is proving this out at all. Streaming will probably be a winner-take-most market and Netflix is on track to remain the leader. We'll see what total 2021 subscriber growth was on Thursday, but estimates for Q4 are still around a net addition of 8 million subscribers. Compare this with Disney Plus growth in the same period of 2 million subscribers and I think the results are quite favorable. If you pay attention to the details, such as in earnings calls, executives have reported that average subscriber watch time has only been increasing over the past few quarters. (Also see refs such as: https://backlinko.com/netflix-users#time-spent-with-netflix https://backlinko.com/netflix-users#time-spent-with-netflix) Keeping in mind that Covid has slowed production of content, in 2021 Netflix still managed to create the two most watched movies _ever_ on the platform (Red Notice, Don't Look Up). There are follow-up seasons launching for at least three of their strongest series, including Witcher (released tail end of 2021), Bridgerton, and Stranger Things. Plus the regular spikes of culturally relevant content such as Squid Games, Cheer, etc. which now happen fairly often. > is destroying the business model that made them so appealing in the first place I'm not sure how you are inferring that the business model has been destroyed here. It's certainly evolving over time but the promise has always been 'pay us a monthly subscription and we'll give you lots of things to watch'. I don't see how that has changed meaningfully or negatively. Netflix has had naysayers at every stage of its growth. The landscape is always changing but I believe the critical idea is that Netflix leads in streaming and this has only strengthened over time. Total subscribers, revenue per user, and watch hours per account are all drifting up, and I fail to see how that represents a downward slope.

morelisp 5y ago
> Netflix still managed to create the two most watched movies _ever_ on the platform By what metrics that they didn't slice just to be able to say this?
- xref 5y ago
  Having seen how you can massage numbers to say basically whatever you want time and again, that was my immediate thought “Gremlins 2 is our most watched movie _ever_”* * featuring a monster made entirely out of vegetables

bluedino 5y ago

You only need 1 show for me to subscribe to your streaming service. It worked the same way during the cable days, I paid for HBO to watch the Sopranos, and canceled it 5 minutes after the series finale.

cutenewt 5y ago

The main take I get is that there isn't enough content to support all the streaming players in the marketplace. In the next five years, we should expecting the number of streaming players to consolidate dramatically probably to the top 3, whoever they might be.

birdyrooster 5y ago

I saw this reality working for them in 2012 and I lost a lot of money not buying the discounted options. When were pitching about becoming HBO before HBO became them, and I thought, who the hell wants to be in HBO’s market?? Netflix at that time was considered externally as a tech play but internally they always knew they would go Hollywood.

etempleton 5y ago

I think they are stumbling because they are trying to grow their catalog too fast. They have achieved a lot of this by taking on debt, not an unresonable amount, but I think they have too much money to burn and that means they aren’t always making smart or selective bets on content. In the beginning of their foray into original content it felt like everything was good or at least interesting even if it wasn’t for me. Now it feels like they have a new original every week, but less that I find compelling or even watchable. A lot of it is lowest common denometer trash content. They risk being associated with that. I once associated them with high quality content even if it was low budget. Now I associate them with shows that feel like were concepted and written by a user acquisition algorithm. At some point they decided Netflix is for every human on earth and to be for everyone you have to have content that can be digested by everyone, but to do that you make a pretty bland product without much taste.

gremlinsinc 5y ago

I actually like their content, but I do feel like they'll eventually fizzle out... the only chance they have to compete w/ Disney is join forces w/ Amazon, or just sell out to Disney. Either of those would make me happy cause then it'd presumably be a bundled service... maybe $15 for hulu, netflix, and disney+. or slightly higher prime membership but much better content+interface. (Hopefully prime would move all their free stuff for prime members just to the netflix apps/ui/etc.