5 ms·

This is spot on. I'm really hoping omicron will be the wave that finally helps achieve some level of "herd immunity". It's sad that we had the opportunity to d

by cjonas 5y ago

This is spot on. I'm really hoping omicron will be the wave that finally helps achieve some level of "herd immunity". It's sad that we had the opportunity to do so via vaccination but failed to capitalize. However a variant with high transmission and low chance of severe symptoms is the next best thing

dv_dt 5y ago
There likely is no herd immunity to be had. Omicron infects those with previous delta infections, and there are cases being studied further from South Africa of omicron cases getting reinfections of omicron. I think our best chance is faster vaccine cycles and better targeting of the sequences to impede transmission.
- tasha0663 5y ago
  A week or two ago they were saying Omicron might confer Delta immunity. Don't overlook that part.
  - nradov 5y ago
    Immunity isn't a binary condition. Infection by any known SARS-CoV-2 variant will leave most recovered patients with a significant level of cellular immunity against all other variants. This won't necessarily prevent reinfection, but just like with every other coronavirus the symptoms of reinfection cases will typically be mild. The mRNA vaccines also seem to confer a significant level of durable cellular immunity against all variants, although they also don't reliably prevent infections.
    - dv_dt 5y ago
      That was what was said of delta, yet six months after, because of how many cases of delta were created, the next Omicron variant can reinfect previous delta patients. Just from looking at the broad waves of Covid, one should conclude that natural immunity conveyed by getting Covid does not protect us as a herd against future mutations. Because omicron is even more contagious, I might expect the next major variant in the same to faster timeframe, and that variant will have the grainy of bypass previous immunity to some degree.
- cjonas 5y ago
  Ya "herd immunity" wasn't the right phase... More so just that I hope we collectively developed a decent enough immune response that we see a dramatic reduction in hospitization.
DannyCasolaro 5y ago
[flagged]
nradov 5y ago
The Delta and Omicron variants are sufficiently contagious that there will be no significant herd immunity effect to protect those who otherwise lack immunity. Instead we expect almost everyone will be exposed. Fortunately the vaccines and other therapies are pretty effective at preventing severe symptoms. https://www.businessinsider.com/delta-variant-made-herd-immunity-not-possible-astrazeneca-developer-2021-8?r=US&IR=T https://www.businessinsider.com/delta-variant-made-herd-immu...
dehrmann 5y ago
> It's sad that we had the opportunity to do so via vaccination but failed to capitalize We likely never had this opportunity; omicron spreads too well and evades existing vaccines too well. The good vaccines are down to ~50% effective, and omicron is 2x as contagious as delta. There was a short window between vaccines getting approved and delta that heroic vaccination campaign could have worked. And I mean heroic. It would have literally had to be 90% of the world population in a few months. Factories never could have scaled to the point, there'd never be enough public trust to hit 90%, and too many countries are incapable of running a campaign like this.

by cjonas 5y ago

dv_dt 5y ago

There likely is no herd immunity to be had. Omicron infects those with previous delta infections, and there are cases being studied further from South Africa of omicron cases getting reinfections of omicron. I think our best chance is faster vaccine cycles and better targeting of the sequences to impede transmission.

tasha0663 5y ago
A week or two ago they were saying Omicron might confer Delta immunity. Don't overlook that part.
- nradov 5y ago
  Immunity isn't a binary condition. Infection by any known SARS-CoV-2 variant will leave most recovered patients with a significant level of cellular immunity against all other variants. This won't necessarily prevent reinfection, but just like with every other coronavirus the symptoms of reinfection cases will typically be mild. The mRNA vaccines also seem to confer a significant level of durable cellular immunity against all variants, although they also don't reliably prevent infections.
  - dv_dt 5y ago
    That was what was said of delta, yet six months after, because of how many cases of delta were created, the next Omicron variant can reinfect previous delta patients. Just from looking at the broad waves of Covid, one should conclude that natural immunity conveyed by getting Covid does not protect us as a herd against future mutations. Because omicron is even more contagious, I might expect the next major variant in the same to faster timeframe, and that variant will have the grainy of bypass previous immunity to some degree.
cjonas 5y ago
Ya "herd immunity" wasn't the right phase... More so just that I hope we collectively developed a decent enough immune response that we see a dramatic reduction in hospitization.

DannyCasolaro 5y ago

[flagged]

nradov 5y ago

The Delta and Omicron variants are sufficiently contagious that there will be no significant herd immunity effect to protect those who otherwise lack immunity. Instead we expect almost everyone will be exposed. Fortunately the vaccines and other therapies are pretty effective at preventing severe symptoms. https://www.businessinsider.com/delta-variant-made-herd-immunity-not-possible-astrazeneca-developer-2021-8?r=US&IR=T https://www.businessinsider.com/delta-variant-made-herd-immu...

dehrmann 5y ago

> It's sad that we had the opportunity to do so via vaccination but failed to capitalize We likely never had this opportunity; omicron spreads too well and evades existing vaccines too well. The good vaccines are down to ~50% effective, and omicron is 2x as contagious as delta. There was a short window between vaccines getting approved and delta that heroic vaccination campaign could have worked. And I mean heroic. It would have literally had to be 90% of the world population in a few months. Factories never could have scaled to the point, there'd never be enough public trust to hit 90%, and too many countries are incapable of running a campaign like this.