6 ms·

Honest question: what is the expected impact of this intervention compared to an alternate world where the intervention is not performed?

WCityMike 5y ago
Gaming it out in my head, I would assume that this increases access to testing for those who are either uninsured or those who could not afford the turnaround time for their insurance to reimburse them for purchase of at-home testing. As such, in this alternate world without the intervention, a chunk of the populace cannot afford to test. If one wanted to make slightly rasher assumptions, this segment might include those who are in jobs (Walmart, food preparation and service) that expose them to a large part of the population.
owenmarshall 5y ago
Efficiently being able to source a test when needed may serve to reduce the load on the medical system. As of today, if I want a test, my options are * private seller - hard to source with high demand and expensive for those with limited income * public test center - availability is a nightmare right now * medical provider, be it PCP or ER I don’t personally know how many people are choosing option 3, but anecdotally I have heard from friends and colleagues that they’ve chosen it for when their kids/they are sick. There’s also an interesting side effect here: every at-home positive is a positive public health authorities won’t know about.
- nradov 5y ago
  How will this reduce the load on the medical system? Most ERs already turn away patients who come in asking for a test unless they have severe symptoms.
  - frereubu 5y ago
    By slowing the spread due to people who test positive at home staying there rather than going out and infecting others. The same number of people may get infected in the end, but it will be over a longer period of time.
    - nradov 5y ago
      Too late. Wastewater surveillance data indicates that the peak Omicron variant infection wave has already peaked in many places. The virus is so contagious that it runs through populations very quickly, just like what happened a few weeks ago in South Africa. By the time these additional test kits are in people's hands they're not going to make much difference. https://covid19.sccgov.org/dashboard-wastewater https://covid19.sccgov.org/dashboard-wastewater https://www.wsj.com/articles/unable-to-get-covid-19-tests-americans-carry-on-go-to-work-get-on-flights-11641551403 https://www.wsj.com/articles/unable-to-get-covid-19-tests-am...
spookthesunset 5y ago
It doesn’t accomplish anything beyond causing undue chaos. Covid is now part of the larger ecosystem of exciting respiratory viruses you catch every year. Knowing it is Covid specifically and not some other virus doesn’t really give the sick person additional information—for the majority of infections the response will be the same: stay home, get rest, get good sleep, take your vitamins and recover. All this mass testing is a colossal waste of health resources that doesn’t add any useful information beyond bumping up the case count. Covid is endemic. Part of learning to live with it is to not test everybody that comes down with flu/cold-like symptoms. We’ve never done this for other respiratory viruses except before prescribing very specific medications like tamiflu.

WCityMike 5y ago

Gaming it out in my head, I would assume that this increases access to testing for those who are either uninsured or those who could not afford the turnaround time for their insurance to reimburse them for purchase of at-home testing. As such, in this alternate world without the intervention, a chunk of the populace cannot afford to test. If one wanted to make slightly rasher assumptions, this segment might include those who are in jobs (Walmart, food preparation and service) that expose them to a large part of the population.

owenmarshall 5y ago

Efficiently being able to source a test when needed may serve to reduce the load on the medical system. As of today, if I want a test, my options are * private seller - hard to source with high demand and expensive for those with limited income * public test center - availability is a nightmare right now * medical provider, be it PCP or ER I don’t personally know how many people are choosing option 3, but anecdotally I have heard from friends and colleagues that they’ve chosen it for when their kids/they are sick. There’s also an interesting side effect here: every at-home positive is a positive public health authorities won’t know about.

nradov 5y ago
How will this reduce the load on the medical system? Most ERs already turn away patients who come in asking for a test unless they have severe symptoms.
- frereubu 5y ago
  By slowing the spread due to people who test positive at home staying there rather than going out and infecting others. The same number of people may get infected in the end, but it will be over a longer period of time.
  - nradov 5y ago
    Too late. Wastewater surveillance data indicates that the peak Omicron variant infection wave has already peaked in many places. The virus is so contagious that it runs through populations very quickly, just like what happened a few weeks ago in South Africa. By the time these additional test kits are in people's hands they're not going to make much difference. https://covid19.sccgov.org/dashboard-wastewater https://covid19.sccgov.org/dashboard-wastewater https://www.wsj.com/articles/unable-to-get-covid-19-tests-americans-carry-on-go-to-work-get-on-flights-11641551403 https://www.wsj.com/articles/unable-to-get-covid-19-tests-am...

spookthesunset 5y ago

It doesn’t accomplish anything beyond causing undue chaos. Covid is now part of the larger ecosystem of exciting respiratory viruses you catch every year. Knowing it is Covid specifically and not some other virus doesn’t really give the sick person additional information—for the majority of infections the response will be the same: stay home, get rest, get good sleep, take your vitamins and recover. All this mass testing is a colossal waste of health resources that doesn’t add any useful information beyond bumping up the case count. Covid is endemic. Part of learning to live with it is to not test everybody that comes down with flu/cold-like symptoms. We’ve never done this for other respiratory viruses except before prescribing very specific medications like tamiflu.