5 ms·

Scientists must do a better job of explaining how natural origin is the likely explanation, then. Otherwise, a lot of smart and educated people are going to put

by afpx 5y ago

Scientists must do a better job of explaining how natural origin is the likely explanation, then. Otherwise, a lot of smart and educated people are going to put the wrong dots together.

deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
YeGoblynQueenne 5y ago
The natural origin is the default explanation and nobody needs to have an IQ of 130 and a degree in biology to figure that out. It suffices to know that diseases are a natural thing. Most people who have gone to school will know that already. It really hurts me that you believe "smart and educated people" believe that nonsense. Everytime anyone with any relevant education has commented on HN it's to say that "lab leak" is rubbish. And let me not get started on how people on HN think they're smart because they're on HN where people think they're smart.
- varjag 5y ago
  Why is that a default explanation when you have no natural carrier habitats at the ground zero, but you do have a virology lab there?
  - YeGoblynQueenne 5y ago
    There's no "when". A natural origin is the default explanation. To look for a different explanation you need to have a reason to look for a different explanation. The existence of a virology lab in the state where the pandemic began is no such reason. Rather, it is a post-facto attempt at making observations supporting an a-priori hypothesis.
    - varjag 5y ago
      Not just "in the state" but in minutes distance from first cases. Plenty of reason to look into, it's not like every urban centre has virology labs studying the titular disease.
      - YeGoblynQueenne 5y ago
        The first cases were found in a wet market. The lab is miles away from it: The first known human infections from SARS‑CoV‑2 were discovered in Wuhan, China.[37] Because many of the early infectees were workers at the Huanan Seafood Market,[50][51] it was originally suggested that the virus might have originated from bats or pangolins sold at the market.[30][33] It was later determined that no bats or pangolins were sold at the market.[52] Bats are not commonly eaten in Central China.[53] The Wuhan Institute of Virology and the Wuhan Center for Disease Control are located within miles of the original focal point of the pandemic, Wuhan's Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market, and this has been used to argue in support of the lab leak theory. However, another explanation for this is a tendency to build virology labs in proximity to outbreak areas.[54] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_lab_leak_theory#Wuhan_Institute_of_Virology https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_lab_leak_theory#Wuhan... What's more, the proximity of the first detected cases to anything is a red herring. We don't know where the first transmission happened. We only know where the first cases were detected. For all we know the virus started in Alaska. Finally the location of the lab was only noticed after people started talking of a lab leak. Some people said "lab leak", some other people said "OMG there's a lab close by!".
        varjag 5y ago
        Yes, "miles away" is within minutes drive: many lab workers quite likely have a commute longer than that. > For all we know the virus started in Alaska. I think we know where the virus have started at this point with reasonable confidence, and it wasn't Alaska. Can't help but notice tho that U.S. origin of virus was a popular CCP media propaganda point last year.
        YeGoblynQueenne 5y ago
        >> Can't help but notice tho that U.S. origin of virus was a popular CCP media propaganda point last year. What am I supposed to make of that, now?
- afpx 5y ago
  Do you really think that most people will buy that given that we haven't had a similar pandemic in 100 years? Also, if you're going to appeal to authority, please link to the HN comments that explain how "lab leak" explanations are rubbish. I'm more than happy to read them. In my opinion, we don't have nearly enough information to make such a decision, one way or the other.
  - YeGoblynQueenne 5y ago
    >> Do you really think that most people will buy that given that we haven't had a similar pandemic in 100 years? Sure we have. Off the top of my head: AIDS, Ebola, CJD, SARS and MERS and H1N1. In fact people thought that AIDS was a US bioweapon that got loose. Or something. Pandemics make people believe all sorts of weird things. >> Also, if you're going to appeal to authority, please link to the HN comments that explain how "lab leak" explanations are rubbish. I'm more than happy to read them. See OP, for instance.
  - afpx 5y ago
    The OP barely provided any information. Mainly they claimed authority on the issue and ruled it closed. It's also interesting how you continue to imply that I'm uneducated, dumb, etc. That's a great way to shut down a dialogue.
    - YeGoblynQueenne 5y ago
      Where did I imply you're uneducated or dumb?
  - nradov 5y ago
    The last major coronavirus pandemic probably started about 133 years ago. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7252012/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7252012/ Since then both SARS-CoV and MERS jumped from animals to humans. They caused smaller outbreaks rather than worldwide pandemics. There was no suspicion of a lab leak origin for those viruses.

by afpx 5y ago

Scientists must do a better job of explaining how natural origin is the likely explanation, then. Otherwise, a lot of smart and educated people are going to put the wrong dots together.

deleted 5y ago

[deleted]

YeGoblynQueenne 5y ago

The natural origin is the default explanation and nobody needs to have an IQ of 130 and a degree in biology to figure that out. It suffices to know that diseases are a natural thing. Most people who have gone to school will know that already. It really hurts me that you believe "smart and educated people" believe that nonsense. Everytime anyone with any relevant education has commented on HN it's to say that "lab leak" is rubbish. And let me not get started on how people on HN think they're smart because they're on HN where people think they're smart.

varjag 5y ago
Why is that a default explanation when you have no natural carrier habitats at the ground zero, but you do have a virology lab there?
- YeGoblynQueenne 5y ago
  There's no "when". A natural origin is the default explanation. To look for a different explanation you need to have a reason to look for a different explanation. The existence of a virology lab in the state where the pandemic began is no such reason. Rather, it is a post-facto attempt at making observations supporting an a-priori hypothesis.
  - varjag 5y ago
    Not just "in the state" but in minutes distance from first cases. Plenty of reason to look into, it's not like every urban centre has virology labs studying the titular disease.
    - YeGoblynQueenne 5y ago
      The first cases were found in a wet market. The lab is miles away from it: The first known human infections from SARS‑CoV‑2 were discovered in Wuhan, China.[37] Because many of the early infectees were workers at the Huanan Seafood Market,[50][51] it was originally suggested that the virus might have originated from bats or pangolins sold at the market.[30][33] It was later determined that no bats or pangolins were sold at the market.[52] Bats are not commonly eaten in Central China.[53] The Wuhan Institute of Virology and the Wuhan Center for Disease Control are located within miles of the original focal point of the pandemic, Wuhan's Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market, and this has been used to argue in support of the lab leak theory. However, another explanation for this is a tendency to build virology labs in proximity to outbreak areas.[54] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_lab_leak_theory#Wuhan_Institute_of_Virology https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_lab_leak_theory#Wuhan... What's more, the proximity of the first detected cases to anything is a red herring. We don't know where the first transmission happened. We only know where the first cases were detected. For all we know the virus started in Alaska. Finally the location of the lab was only noticed after people started talking of a lab leak. Some people said "lab leak", some other people said "OMG there's a lab close by!".
      - varjag 5y ago
        Yes, "miles away" is within minutes drive: many lab workers quite likely have a commute longer than that. > For all we know the virus started in Alaska. I think we know where the virus have started at this point with reasonable confidence, and it wasn't Alaska. Can't help but notice tho that U.S. origin of virus was a popular CCP media propaganda point last year.
        YeGoblynQueenne 5y ago
        >> Can't help but notice tho that U.S. origin of virus was a popular CCP media propaganda point last year. What am I supposed to make of that, now?
afpx 5y ago
Do you really think that most people will buy that given that we haven't had a similar pandemic in 100 years? Also, if you're going to appeal to authority, please link to the HN comments that explain how "lab leak" explanations are rubbish. I'm more than happy to read them. In my opinion, we don't have nearly enough information to make such a decision, one way or the other.
- YeGoblynQueenne 5y ago
  >> Do you really think that most people will buy that given that we haven't had a similar pandemic in 100 years? Sure we have. Off the top of my head: AIDS, Ebola, CJD, SARS and MERS and H1N1. In fact people thought that AIDS was a US bioweapon that got loose. Or something. Pandemics make people believe all sorts of weird things. >> Also, if you're going to appeal to authority, please link to the HN comments that explain how "lab leak" explanations are rubbish. I'm more than happy to read them. See OP, for instance.
- afpx 5y ago
  The OP barely provided any information. Mainly they claimed authority on the issue and ruled it closed. It's also interesting how you continue to imply that I'm uneducated, dumb, etc. That's a great way to shut down a dialogue.
  - YeGoblynQueenne 5y ago
    Where did I imply you're uneducated or dumb?
- nradov 5y ago
  The last major coronavirus pandemic probably started about 133 years ago. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7252012/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7252012/ Since then both SARS-CoV and MERS jumped from animals to humans. They caused smaller outbreaks rather than worldwide pandemics. There was no suspicion of a lab leak origin for those viruses.