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It is really weird how HN talks about this in comparison to similar topics. For example, this is the exact same logic that leads people to believe that encrypt

by slg 5y ago

It is really weird how HN talks about this in comparison to similar topics. For example, this is the exact same logic that leads people to believe that encrypting data or using Tor is evidence of someone trying to hide criminal behavior. Almost everyone here would object to that type of thinking, but when it comes to China it suddenly becomes "Why would they object to transparency unless they had something to hide?".

krisoft 5y ago
Yes. Countries and people are two different thing and the expected and acceptable behaviours are different too. If you write an officially sounding letter to your neighbour demanding to know how they come to choose the paint to repaint their bikeshed you are a weirdo and they are in their right to ignore you. If you write the same letter to a city official about a public bikeshed you are sending a freedom of information request and they are expected to respond promptly and accurately.
- pasquinelli 5y ago
  yeah, but what if you send the letter to an official of another country? countries and people are different things; countries are generally much more secretive than people.
- Maursault 5y ago
  You missed GP's point, which apparently was equating personal privacy with China's national security. I didn't think twice about China's lack of transparency. It's normal and expected behavior from China, so I would never suspect it to mean they were hiding something that was actually salient to the global pandemic... they're just hiding everything, but all it amounts to is hiding whatever corruption comes with government. IOW what they're usually hiding is often well known and is nothing interesting. Suspicion of things being hidden, wild speculation on it and tenuously attaching it somehow to common strife seems to be a conservative theme. What always interests me is: 1) How many pandemics have there been? 2) How many lab leaks have there been? 3) How many lab leaks have caused outbreaks, epidemics and pandemics? 4) What is the cause of every other pandemic? The answers lead me to believe a lab leak of virulent COVID, if it occurred, and let's assume it did, is only a coincidence, and the hidden cause of this pandemic is, while somehow the most unsuspected in light of the assumed lab leak, was the same cause as every other pandemic, ever. I think the article just shows that experts are human and subject to human bias, and as such, like everyone else that similarly succumbed to bias, foolish for considering or believing in something with literally millions, tens of millions, or hundreds of millions to one odds against (lab leaks happen occasionally, there have probably been hundreds to thousands of lab leaks in 100 years, but over eons there have been millions of pandemics, and in recorded history, there have been enough of them to see a clear pattern: viruses jump species, people living and working in close proximity to animals are infected, the infection spreads).
  - largbae 5y ago
    So just ignore it? Wildfires occur naturally in a similar fashion. We still try to diagnose their causes and use that information to punish arson or otherwise come up with better strategies to prevent them.
    - Maursault 5y ago
      I'm not sure what you're referring to, re: ignore, but I don't think your analogy is remotely apt. I think you're saying a little fire is like a little virus, and a big fire like a pandemic. But anyone can light a fire, even animals cause wildfires, and thanks to lightning and fuel, fire doesn't need anyone to cause it. No one, I think, can "light" a little virus that could then spread like wildfire across the globe. Maybe a state actor, but not some individual and not accidentally. But this is mixing the two conspiracies, ordinary lab leak vs. engineered virus intentionally released. I just don't think China is up to it. I still return to the fact that lots of nasty things have escaped labs and the worst result was a very minor outbreak. Though genetics and microbiology has made incredible advances, it is all, all of it, on Nature's back. I think in a contest between Nature and any group of the smartest most knowledgable scientists with global resources to create the deadliest virus imaginable, Nature wins every single time, forever. And if COVID-19 was engineered for this, it sucks, it's an absurd and annoying failure. I think the reason why the source for COVID-19 can not be found is that it was fully consumed by one or more of the first 50 infected Wuhan residents that purchased it at the wet market and fully digested it before anyone had a hint of symptoms.
marcosdumay 5y ago
Governments do not have an inherent right to privacy.
Siira 5y ago
Yes, we hold states to a higher standard than individuals.

by slg 5y ago

krisoft 5y ago

Yes. Countries and people are two different thing and the expected and acceptable behaviours are different too. If you write an officially sounding letter to your neighbour demanding to know how they come to choose the paint to repaint their bikeshed you are a weirdo and they are in their right to ignore you. If you write the same letter to a city official about a public bikeshed you are sending a freedom of information request and they are expected to respond promptly and accurately.

pasquinelli 5y ago
yeah, but what if you send the letter to an official of another country? countries and people are different things; countries are generally much more secretive than people.
Maursault 5y ago
You missed GP's point, which apparently was equating personal privacy with China's national security. I didn't think twice about China's lack of transparency. It's normal and expected behavior from China, so I would never suspect it to mean they were hiding something that was actually salient to the global pandemic... they're just hiding everything, but all it amounts to is hiding whatever corruption comes with government. IOW what they're usually hiding is often well known and is nothing interesting. Suspicion of things being hidden, wild speculation on it and tenuously attaching it somehow to common strife seems to be a conservative theme. What always interests me is: 1) How many pandemics have there been? 2) How many lab leaks have there been? 3) How many lab leaks have caused outbreaks, epidemics and pandemics? 4) What is the cause of every other pandemic? The answers lead me to believe a lab leak of virulent COVID, if it occurred, and let's assume it did, is only a coincidence, and the hidden cause of this pandemic is, while somehow the most unsuspected in light of the assumed lab leak, was the same cause as every other pandemic, ever. I think the article just shows that experts are human and subject to human bias, and as such, like everyone else that similarly succumbed to bias, foolish for considering or believing in something with literally millions, tens of millions, or hundreds of millions to one odds against (lab leaks happen occasionally, there have probably been hundreds to thousands of lab leaks in 100 years, but over eons there have been millions of pandemics, and in recorded history, there have been enough of them to see a clear pattern: viruses jump species, people living and working in close proximity to animals are infected, the infection spreads).
- largbae 5y ago
  So just ignore it? Wildfires occur naturally in a similar fashion. We still try to diagnose their causes and use that information to punish arson or otherwise come up with better strategies to prevent them.
  - Maursault 5y ago
    I'm not sure what you're referring to, re: ignore, but I don't think your analogy is remotely apt. I think you're saying a little fire is like a little virus, and a big fire like a pandemic. But anyone can light a fire, even animals cause wildfires, and thanks to lightning and fuel, fire doesn't need anyone to cause it. No one, I think, can "light" a little virus that could then spread like wildfire across the globe. Maybe a state actor, but not some individual and not accidentally. But this is mixing the two conspiracies, ordinary lab leak vs. engineered virus intentionally released. I just don't think China is up to it. I still return to the fact that lots of nasty things have escaped labs and the worst result was a very minor outbreak. Though genetics and microbiology has made incredible advances, it is all, all of it, on Nature's back. I think in a contest between Nature and any group of the smartest most knowledgable scientists with global resources to create the deadliest virus imaginable, Nature wins every single time, forever. And if COVID-19 was engineered for this, it sucks, it's an absurd and annoying failure. I think the reason why the source for COVID-19 can not be found is that it was fully consumed by one or more of the first 50 infected Wuhan residents that purchased it at the wet market and fully digested it before anyone had a hint of symptoms.

marcosdumay 5y ago

Governments do not have an inherent right to privacy.

Siira 5y ago

Yes, we hold states to a higher standard than individuals.