3 ms·

I'd hypothesize that Jevon's paradox only manifests if there is significant unfulfilled demand or if new uses for something manifest at a lower price point. If

by api 5y ago

I'd hypothesize that Jevon's paradox only manifests if there is significant unfulfilled demand or if new uses for something manifest at a lower price point. If neither of these conditions is satisfied I don't see why higher efficiency would increase use. LEDs for example reduce the energy use of lighting very significantly. It has not caused most people to use more lighting. The demand for lighting was already largely satisfied prior to the LED revolution. Transportation on the other hand... I imagine if something created a 10X improvement in the efficiency of rapid long distance travel (bullet trains, electric aircraft, much higher efficiency aircraft, etc.) you'd see quite a bit more of it. People would start taking weekend trips to places they might otherwise visit only rarely, meeting in person more frequently in remote jobs, and so on. There's probably a ton of unfulfilled latent demand for travel.

Jtsummers 5y ago
And even if people do use more lighting, there's an upper limit on how much lighting is tolerable. LED bulbs are significantly more efficient than the incandescents (based on watts/lumen) they replaced. Someone would have to use 6-10x more LED bulbs to consume as much electricity as the incandescent bulb it replaced, which would make for an unbearably bright space (for most people). I had a friend in college who did exactly that, it was a remarkably unpleasant space to be in as a consequence (not sure if he ever toned it down, rarely went to his home).
dredmorbius 5y ago
Increased demand here is often exhibited by: - Providing lighting where it wasn't previously. Most especially outdoors, for display lighting, or for advertising. - By operating lighting that would otherwise have been turned off. - By the introduction of lighting to populations or sectors which previously had none. A 1 MW generator might power 20,000 households each with a 50W incandescent light bulb. That same generator could power 200,000 households each with a 5W LED bulb. That's an addtional 180,000 households which would have effective access to lighting. (Other loads, transmission/distribution losses, etc., ignored. The point is that efficiency greatly expands the possible service population.) Now factor in that some fraction of the initial 20k households might still be able to afford an additional 45W of power, say, to charge or operate a tablet or laptop computer and router, and the total power draw will in fact increase.
deleted 5y ago
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by api 5y ago

Jtsummers 5y ago

And even if people do use more lighting, there's an upper limit on how much lighting is tolerable. LED bulbs are significantly more efficient than the incandescents (based on watts/lumen) they replaced. Someone would have to use 6-10x more LED bulbs to consume as much electricity as the incandescent bulb it replaced, which would make for an unbearably bright space (for most people). I had a friend in college who did exactly that, it was a remarkably unpleasant space to be in as a consequence (not sure if he ever toned it down, rarely went to his home).

dredmorbius 5y ago

Increased demand here is often exhibited by: - Providing lighting where it wasn't previously. Most especially outdoors, for display lighting, or for advertising. - By operating lighting that would otherwise have been turned off. - By the introduction of lighting to populations or sectors which previously had none. A 1 MW generator might power 20,000 households each with a 50W incandescent light bulb. That same generator could power 200,000 households each with a 5W LED bulb. That's an addtional 180,000 households which would have effective access to lighting. (Other loads, transmission/distribution losses, etc., ignored. The point is that efficiency greatly expands the possible service population.) Now factor in that some fraction of the initial 20k households might still be able to afford an additional 45W of power, say, to charge or operate a tablet or laptop computer and router, and the total power draw will in fact increase.

deleted 5y ago

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