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Quoting box office sales while ignoring the fact this was released simultaneously for streaming really doesn't tell the full story.

by Latty 5y ago

LegitShady 5y ago
Do they suddenly make more money streaming? Do you have any evidence people joined a streaming platform to watch it? This thing bombed everywhere. People with existing subscriptions watching it doesn't make it any. More profitable to Warner Bros
- bentcorner 5y ago
  While I can't answer your question, just using a calculation like "box office receipts" - "movie making expense" is surely disingenuous. In that case every single direct-to-netflix release would be considered a money loser.
- doctornoble 5y ago
  Anecdotally I did. Well for that and Dune - and I’ll probably keep it, I was surprised and impressed with the selection.
- lilyball 5y ago
  They had a deal for home streaming simultaneously with the box office release. This means that yes it is highly likely that far more people streamed this movie than movies that do theater-exclusive releases. And people with existing subscriptions don’t matter, because Warner Bros isn’t getting subscription money directly, they’re getting money from deals with subscription services. Edit: HBO is owned by Warner. So even if they don’t do accounting such that HBO pays Warner but just track subscription revenue directly, it still doesn’t matter. Retaining subscribers is hugely important, not just getting brand new subscriptions. It does make it a lot harder to compare box office receipts though.
- PostOnce 5y ago
  More money isn't just new subscriptions, it's also revenue from existing subscriptions (which can be cancelled any time). By this logic, platforms will never need new content ever in order to keep existing subscribers happy. It's not just new subscriptions, it's also retention: do people stay subscribed to platform X because movies like The Matrix Resurrections are on the platform? It'd be rather hard to measure for a single film, it's the aggregate of platform content that dictates retention, I would think. If the answer is yes, then the platforms will continue to pay companies like WB to film "box office bombs".
  - mbreese 5y ago
    I watched the movie via HBO Max. I’m sure that on one set of calculations (HBO), a good chunk of my monthly fee is assigned to the Matrix Resurrections account. But on another set of calculations (Warner Bros), I’m a negative because I would have likely gone to see it in a theater. Nevermind that they are the same company.
- samsin 5y ago
  I'm not sure the specific licensing agreement between HBO and Warner Bros, but it's likely they agreed upon a flat fee with additional $ per viewer. I don't think these deals would ever hinge solely on how many new subscribers joined the platform specifically to view that movie, which would be difficult to prove anyway. From HBO's perspective, they also benefit from having a 'blockbuster' in their catalogue since it signals to potential subscribers that they're a platform you can expect to view high-budget movies.
  - mason55 5y ago
    HBO is owned by Warner
    - chipotle_coyote 5y ago
      That doesn't mean that there isn't a contract between HBO and Warner Studios involved for this, as crazy as it sounds. It doesn't mean that there definitively is one, either -- but depending on how the different divisions are structured, HBO may well be paying Warner for the streaming rights. My impression is that this sort of deal -- where the production arm may well shop around a product to different networks/services, even if the parent company actually owns one -- is becoming less common as nearly everyone's starting their own streaming service, but AFAIK it still happens, particularly for movies.
- tehwebguy 5y ago
  The point isn’t that there are 2 revenue streams instead of 1, is that they own it forever and there will be unlimited ways to make money on it over a long enough timeline.
  - 1123581321 5y ago
    For a film, the present value of the unlimited future revenue is only a single digit multiple of its short term box office. Perhaps low doubles given the proportion of release attention accumulated on HBO Max.
- philistine 5y ago
  HBO Max is not a global service. There is a ton of money to be made selling the movie to other streaming services.
1123581321 5y ago
You can get a rough idea by using Netflix’ impact value figure, the formula of which isn’t public but appears to be about seven times the number who watched at least two minutes of the title in the first month. (This is based on the leaked documents about Squid Game’s performance, and again, the real formula is surely more complicated. https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/18/netflixs-squid-game-is-reportedly-worth-almost-900-million.html https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/18/netflixs-squid-game-is-repor...) Matrix was viewed about 3 million times in its opening week. Assuming it doubles that over the first month, that’d be 6M * 7 or an impact value of $42MM. If you want to be generous, multiply again by a number to account for HBO Max’s smaller size compared to Netflix, or to account for Max’s strategic importance to Warner. Either way, the contribution is significant but not enough to make Matrix 4 a hit relative to its budget.
- leereeves 5y ago
  What exactly is impact value? That article didn't explain it very well.
  - 1123581321 5y ago
    Impact value is an attempt to measure the title’s contribution to streaming revenue through signups and retention.

Quoting box office sales while ignoring the fact this was released simultaneously for streaming really doesn't tell the full story.

by Latty 5y ago

Quoting box office sales while ignoring the fact this was released simultaneously for streaming really doesn't tell the full story.

LegitShady 5y ago

Do they suddenly make more money streaming? Do you have any evidence people joined a streaming platform to watch it? This thing bombed everywhere. People with existing subscriptions watching it doesn't make it any. More profitable to Warner Bros

bentcorner 5y ago
While I can't answer your question, just using a calculation like "box office receipts" - "movie making expense" is surely disingenuous. In that case every single direct-to-netflix release would be considered a money loser.
doctornoble 5y ago
Anecdotally I did. Well for that and Dune - and I’ll probably keep it, I was surprised and impressed with the selection.
lilyball 5y ago
They had a deal for home streaming simultaneously with the box office release. This means that yes it is highly likely that far more people streamed this movie than movies that do theater-exclusive releases. And people with existing subscriptions don’t matter, because Warner Bros isn’t getting subscription money directly, they’re getting money from deals with subscription services. Edit: HBO is owned by Warner. So even if they don’t do accounting such that HBO pays Warner but just track subscription revenue directly, it still doesn’t matter. Retaining subscribers is hugely important, not just getting brand new subscriptions. It does make it a lot harder to compare box office receipts though.
PostOnce 5y ago
More money isn't just new subscriptions, it's also revenue from existing subscriptions (which can be cancelled any time). By this logic, platforms will never need new content ever in order to keep existing subscribers happy. It's not just new subscriptions, it's also retention: do people stay subscribed to platform X because movies like The Matrix Resurrections are on the platform? It'd be rather hard to measure for a single film, it's the aggregate of platform content that dictates retention, I would think. If the answer is yes, then the platforms will continue to pay companies like WB to film "box office bombs".
- mbreese 5y ago
  I watched the movie via HBO Max. I’m sure that on one set of calculations (HBO), a good chunk of my monthly fee is assigned to the Matrix Resurrections account. But on another set of calculations (Warner Bros), I’m a negative because I would have likely gone to see it in a theater. Nevermind that they are the same company.
samsin 5y ago
I'm not sure the specific licensing agreement between HBO and Warner Bros, but it's likely they agreed upon a flat fee with additional $ per viewer. I don't think these deals would ever hinge solely on how many new subscribers joined the platform specifically to view that movie, which would be difficult to prove anyway. From HBO's perspective, they also benefit from having a 'blockbuster' in their catalogue since it signals to potential subscribers that they're a platform you can expect to view high-budget movies.
- mason55 5y ago
  HBO is owned by Warner
  - chipotle_coyote 5y ago
    That doesn't mean that there isn't a contract between HBO and Warner Studios involved for this, as crazy as it sounds. It doesn't mean that there definitively is one, either -- but depending on how the different divisions are structured, HBO may well be paying Warner for the streaming rights. My impression is that this sort of deal -- where the production arm may well shop around a product to different networks/services, even if the parent company actually owns one -- is becoming less common as nearly everyone's starting their own streaming service, but AFAIK it still happens, particularly for movies.
tehwebguy 5y ago
The point isn’t that there are 2 revenue streams instead of 1, is that they own it forever and there will be unlimited ways to make money on it over a long enough timeline.
- 1123581321 5y ago
  For a film, the present value of the unlimited future revenue is only a single digit multiple of its short term box office. Perhaps low doubles given the proportion of release attention accumulated on HBO Max.
philistine 5y ago
HBO Max is not a global service. There is a ton of money to be made selling the movie to other streaming services.

1123581321 5y ago

You can get a rough idea by using Netflix’ impact value figure, the formula of which isn’t public but appears to be about seven times the number who watched at least two minutes of the title in the first month. (This is based on the leaked documents about Squid Game’s performance, and again, the real formula is surely more complicated. https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/18/netflixs-squid-game-is-reportedly-worth-almost-900-million.html https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/18/netflixs-squid-game-is-repor...) Matrix was viewed about 3 million times in its opening week. Assuming it doubles that over the first month, that’d be 6M * 7 or an impact value of $42MM. If you want to be generous, multiply again by a number to account for HBO Max’s smaller size compared to Netflix, or to account for Max’s strategic importance to Warner. Either way, the contribution is significant but not enough to make Matrix 4 a hit relative to its budget.

leereeves 5y ago
What exactly is impact value? That article didn't explain it very well.
- 1123581321 5y ago
  Impact value is an attempt to measure the title’s contribution to streaming revenue through signups and retention.