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It's interesting that you phrase it that way, because I was thinking exactly the same thing, but from the opposite direction. I caught covid early, and while (

It's interesting that you phrase it that way, because I was thinking exactly the same thing, but from the opposite direction. I caught covid early, and while (for me) it was a nasty bug, I recovered with nothing more than a lingering cough for several weeks. Against enormous pressure I decided not to get vaccinated. Everything I read supported that natural immunity is at least as protective as the vaccine, and most studies I've seen say it is much better. This makes sense to me, a natural immune response in a healthy person should be stronger than a vaccine, given that all a vaccine is supposed to do is "train" your immune system via an immune response to a "simulation" of the actual virus (apologies for the gross oversimplification). I thought the marshmallow test was in the other direction - the millions of people who acquired natural immunity through infection, but "grabbed the marshmallow" in the form of the vaccine. What will the long term effects be? We don't know. FWIW, my immunity does seem to have been pretty effective, since I just tested positive for Covid. My only symptoms were a light headache and backache. My wife, however was sick for around three days with fever and sore throat laying right next to me in bed, coughing. I took care of her, kissed her on the forehead, etc... I didn't get as much as a sniffle.

mizzack 5y ago
The free donut test.
spenczar5 5y ago
If you don’t mind, why not get vaccinated? Like, what is the downside? I know this is a dangerous topic, especially on the internet with strangers, so feel free to just not respond - that would be understandable. But I am curious to hear your thought process.
- luke_value 5y ago
  He has natural immunity. There are literally only downside risks from taking the shot. Who gets vaccinated for a disease they already had? No one gets measles and THEN gets vaccinated.
  - jeremyjh 5y ago
    - axiosgunnar 5y ago
      What does any of this have to do with any kind of political spectrum? It is laughable to try to turn everything into left-right politics. Is eating pineapple pizza leftwing or rightwing extremism?
      - deleted 5y ago
        [deleted]
    - curmudgeon22 5y ago
      There are risks from the vaccines, even if they are rare. Why expose yourself if you're protected already? Myocarditis being the main one: - Postmarketing data demonstrate increased risks of myocarditis and pericarditis, particularly within 7 days following the second dose. [1] - The true incidence of myopericarditis is markedly higher than the incidence reported to US advisory committees. (preprint) [2] [1] https://www.fda.gov/media/151707/download https://www.fda.gov/media/151707/download [2] https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.21.21268209v1.full.pdf https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.21.21268209v...
      - lovich 5y ago
        > There are risks from the vaccines, even if they are rare Is pretty semantically different from > There are literally only downside risks from taking the shot. Which I think was the poster’s point about right wing talking points coming from a brand new account
  - ancientsofmumu 5y ago
    > Who gets vaccinated for a disease they already had? Chickenpox (a form of herpes) lies dormant in the system for decades causes Shingles. Vaccinations are recommended at 50+ for people who have had the former to prevent the latter. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chickenpox https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chickenpox https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shingles https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shingles https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zoster_vaccine https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zoster_vaccine
- holbrad 5y ago
  I'm in a pretty similar boat, young guy, had COVID didn't even notice. But got a positive test because the rest of the family was sick. There doesn't seem to be a solid reason to take the vaccine, for me specifically. Could easily make me sick for a day(s), with a very small chance of even worse side effects. Some of it I'm sure is a personality trait, I just generally need a good reason to do things. If vaccines passports or other such measures get introduced (UK) I'll get it reluctantly, because that's a bastardized reason & a benefit.
- PKop 5y ago
  What are the long term effects of multiple rounds of boosters? You have no idea. The mechanism by which mRNA vaccines work is different than standard vaccines. What are the unintended consequences? You have no idea. What is the risk if of COVID, especially the weakened Omicron strain? The CDC Director states that 75% of COVID deaths occurred in people with 4 comorbidities [0]. For someone under 50 that is fit and isn't overweight, COVID is statistically nothing to worry about. And this person already got sick so has natural immunity. What is the sense in assuming the prudent course of action is injecting a new pharmacological substance in your body instead of just allowing your own immune system to protect you naturally? Most drugs go through multiple rounds, over many years, of FDA testing and often side effects are discovered. What is gained by taking it? Almost nothing. What is risked? You don't know. I think the smart money will be on the side of the cohort that avoided this mind-virus of being gaslit into taking some pharma drug instead of just facing the minimal threat head on. [0] https://twitter.com/Lukewearechange/status/1480595156483072001 https://twitter.com/Lukewearechange/status/14805951564830720...
  - hhmc 5y ago
    It's interesting that you're concerned about the long term _effects_ of boosters, but COVID is nothing to worry about since you're only concerned with _deaths_. Seems disengenous.
    - PKop 5y ago
      The vaccines don't prevent people from getting covid, so why accumulate risks? In any case, common sense says the natural coronavirus would be handled by your body in predictable ways versus the new mRNA engineered substance. Are you telling me since you got the vaccines, you actually think you're going to avoid getting COVID? If this is not what you think, then what the hell are you talking about?
      - snowwrestler 5y ago
        The body handles the mRNA vaccine more predictably than the naturally occurring viable coronavirus. This is not a matter of common sense; it’s possible to test in vitro and in field trials (and there have been a lot of both). The reason is in part because there is less variability from dose to dose of an mRNA vaccine than there is among extant variants of viable SARS-COV-2 coronavirus. That makes it easier to predict what will happen. And it is in part because mRNA vaccines are built up from the existing biochemistry of the body. That is, mRNA vaccines are not a new thing we created, they are a distillation of a natural system that we discovered and studied.
- claytongulick 5y ago
  It is a dangerous topic (which is weird, right?) And I post on HN under my real name. But it's a genuine question, and I'm going to try to give you a complete response, because I think open discussion on this is important, even though I know that it's an unpopular opinion. It comes down to three things: 1) the studies I've reviewed, which overwhelmingly support the strength of natural immunity 2) the adverse reactions that I've seen personally (I personally know more people that have had more severe reactions from the vaccine than I know who have had severe outcome from covid - purely anecdotal, but hard for me to ignore), and from VAERS (truly frightening), and 3) the very strange authoritarian approach the government and media have taken with this. I don't know of any vaccine or drug trial that would have survived the number of adverse effect that have been reported without being pulled. We keep seeing strange things like the CEO of Reuters being on the board of Pfizer as [1] mentions. But it's immediately flagged on HN. You can't even discuss it. Medical opinions from highly qualified doctors and health experts being silenced, accounts being canceled and removed from FB, Google, etc... frankly, it has me creeped out. I've never seen anything like it. The "othering" of people who make informed choice about vaccination and decide against it is extraordinary. It's a global phenomenon. You can see it in some of the responses to my comment here on HN, even. Take a look at the downvotes for my comment - just for saying that my natural immunity seems to be robust. There don't seem to be many people willing to engage in an open and honest dialog about this, other opinions are silenced by any means available. Maybe it's because I'm older and cranky, maybe it's because of a deep distrust of centralized authority, but the more someone pushes me to do something, anything really, the more I tend to resist. When I couple that with the risk/reward evaluation and the advice of my doctor, all things things come together to make me decide not to do it. [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29879165 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29879165
  - MengerSponge 5y ago
    Anyone can report anything to VAERS. It's exactly as scary as the boogeyman. A severe outcome from COVID is hospitalization. You seriously know multiple people who were hospitalized as a result of a vaccine? (X) Doubt. The "othering" is because people who opted out of getting a vaccine have endangered the rest of us. It appears you've continued to participate in society, as evidenced by your reinfection. People generally shouldn't be surprised that they face social sanction when they act in an antisocial way! If you drive recklessly, you go to jail. If you don't get certain vaccines, you don't get to enroll in school. You can't smoke indoors, or even close to doors, in most parts of many countries. The fact that your "informed choice" is driven more by gut feelings, selection bias, and an innate opposition to any and all authority further underscores the point.
bequanna 5y ago
> What will the long term effects be? We don't know. Thank you for bringing this up. It isn’t “anti-science” to ask these type of questions and expect answers. Indeed, it has always been the job of the FDA to hold drug companies responsible for proving that their drugs do not harm. Guilty until proven innocent. Given the rushed approval, incredible profit motive, reluctance of the FDA to respond to FOIA requests and the strong pushback against those who ask questions I think some skepticism is warranted. So far, the cost-benefit for those not in high risk groups (especially children) seems waaaaay off. Why vaccinate children that are at almost no risk of serious illness when we clearly do not have all the info on long term vax risks?
- saynay 5y ago
  So far, there hasn't been any evidence (I've heard of) of long-term adverse effects of the vaccination. Vaccines are not exactly new science. There has, however, been evidence of long-term effects of catching COVID in some cases. It is pretty obvious which option to take with the currently available evidence.
  - bequanna 5y ago
    Right, my argument would be that the “currently available evidence” should be viewed with skepticism given the incredible profit motive involved and current political climate.
  - a45a33s 5y ago
    >So far, there hasn't been any evidence (I've heard of) of long-term adverse effects of the vaccination. Vaccines are not exactly new science. the vaccines came out last year, there hasn't even been a long term yet. mrna vaccines are definitely new science, unless you can point me to another mrna vaccine that has been distributed to the public at this scale?
  - kkjjkgjjgg 5y ago
    "So far, there hasn't been any evidence (I've heard of) of long-term adverse effects of the vaccination" A couple of people have died, I'd call that a long-term adverse effect. Presumably way less people than would otherwise have died from Covid, so not to say you shouldn't get vaccinated. But to claim there are no known long-term adverse effects is wrong.
et2o 5y ago
Dead wrong that a single bought of COVID is better than 3 vaccine shots. You need repeated exposure. Plus, I’m guessing you’re young-the point was to stop the > million deaths COVID is going to cause in the US alone soon. Nice work.
7steps2much 5y ago
> I thought the marshmallow test was in the other direction - the millions of people who acquired natural immunity through infection, but "grabbed the marshmallow" in the form of the vaccine. What will the long term effects be? We don't know. Assuming that natural immunity is still up to date and kicking, then there shouldn't be any issues with this. After all, the body should recognise and then proceed to battle the vaccine. You may experience symptoms, but at least the way I understood it these are short term, not in the long run. On the other hand, if the natural immunity has weakened then this is good training. So really, as far as I can see there is no reason to ever not take a vaccine unless you had an infection just a short while ago
MengerSponge 5y ago
For what it's worth, recovering from the disease and getting a "booster" vaccine a few months later yields the best protection. I hope you do this. People who are relying solely on disease recovery are far more likely to be reinfected, and face worse outcomes, as compared to people who get their full three-dose vaccine (two primary + booster). Incidentally, your thought process is suffering from the naturalistic fallacy.
- mehrdada 5y ago
  Where did you get this data? All CDC itself says on the website says “Cases of reinfection with COVID-19 have been reported, but remain rare. [1]” and it seems there is an active effort to suppress the effectiveness of natural immunity effectiveness (at least against the same strain). Intuitively given vaccine’s ineffectiveness at protecting against Omicron spread, I tend to think the push for boosters are quite dubious and natural immunity is at least as good as vax if not better, and sufficiently low risk for Omicron after 2x vax. Besides, anecdotal experience of below 40 adult friends catching Omicron with 2x or 3x vax has been much easier than the two days of bitter experience after their last dose of Moderna. The only acceptable rationale is to flatten the curve so the Omicron surge wouldn’t DoS hospitals in the short term which can happen even if the relative risk of hospitalization is low due to the high transmission rates, but that can be better achieved via more temporary isolation/N95/etc than boosters. [1]: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/your-health/reinfection.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/your-health/reinfe...
  - MengerSponge 5y ago
twic 5y ago
> Everything I read supported that natural immunity is at least as protective as the vaccine That is the exact opposite of what i have read. One random example: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7044e1.htm https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7044e1.htm
- rhino369 5y ago
  Tiny sample size compared to the one from Israel that found the opposite. And the CDC essentially admits the vaccines no longer do much to prevent spread (due to waning protection and new variants). Maybe previous natural immunity has seen the same reduction, but you can't assume that.
amelius 5y ago
Look, if science made an error, then that is a huge opportunity for an army of other scientists to point it out. That's how science works. Don't make the mistake to think that an armchair scientist can outsmart them all with just some basic reasoning perhaps based on personal anecdotes.
- jgod 5y ago
  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ignaz_Semmelweis https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ignaz_Semmelweis
  - amelius 5y ago
    Medical science was far less competitive back then, and more based on status. Nice anecdote, though.

mizzack 5y ago

The free donut test.

spenczar5 5y ago

If you don’t mind, why not get vaccinated? Like, what is the downside? I know this is a dangerous topic, especially on the internet with strangers, so feel free to just not respond - that would be understandable. But I am curious to hear your thought process.

luke_value 5y ago
He has natural immunity. There are literally only downside risks from taking the shot. Who gets vaccinated for a disease they already had? No one gets measles and THEN gets vaccinated.
- jeremyjh 5y ago
  - axiosgunnar 5y ago
    What does any of this have to do with any kind of political spectrum? It is laughable to try to turn everything into left-right politics. Is eating pineapple pizza leftwing or rightwing extremism?
    - deleted 5y ago
      [deleted]
  - curmudgeon22 5y ago
    There are risks from the vaccines, even if they are rare. Why expose yourself if you're protected already? Myocarditis being the main one: - Postmarketing data demonstrate increased risks of myocarditis and pericarditis, particularly within 7 days following the second dose. [1] - The true incidence of myopericarditis is markedly higher than the incidence reported to US advisory committees. (preprint) [2] [1] https://www.fda.gov/media/151707/download https://www.fda.gov/media/151707/download [2] https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.21.21268209v1.full.pdf https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.21.21268209v...
    - lovich 5y ago
      > There are risks from the vaccines, even if they are rare Is pretty semantically different from > There are literally only downside risks from taking the shot. Which I think was the poster’s point about right wing talking points coming from a brand new account
- ancientsofmumu 5y ago
  > Who gets vaccinated for a disease they already had? Chickenpox (a form of herpes) lies dormant in the system for decades causes Shingles. Vaccinations are recommended at 50+ for people who have had the former to prevent the latter. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chickenpox https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chickenpox https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shingles https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shingles https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zoster_vaccine https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zoster_vaccine
holbrad 5y ago
I'm in a pretty similar boat, young guy, had COVID didn't even notice. But got a positive test because the rest of the family was sick. There doesn't seem to be a solid reason to take the vaccine, for me specifically. Could easily make me sick for a day(s), with a very small chance of even worse side effects. Some of it I'm sure is a personality trait, I just generally need a good reason to do things. If vaccines passports or other such measures get introduced (UK) I'll get it reluctantly, because that's a bastardized reason & a benefit.
PKop 5y ago
What are the long term effects of multiple rounds of boosters? You have no idea. The mechanism by which mRNA vaccines work is different than standard vaccines. What are the unintended consequences? You have no idea. What is the risk if of COVID, especially the weakened Omicron strain? The CDC Director states that 75% of COVID deaths occurred in people with 4 comorbidities [0]. For someone under 50 that is fit and isn't overweight, COVID is statistically nothing to worry about. And this person already got sick so has natural immunity. What is the sense in assuming the prudent course of action is injecting a new pharmacological substance in your body instead of just allowing your own immune system to protect you naturally? Most drugs go through multiple rounds, over many years, of FDA testing and often side effects are discovered. What is gained by taking it? Almost nothing. What is risked? You don't know. I think the smart money will be on the side of the cohort that avoided this mind-virus of being gaslit into taking some pharma drug instead of just facing the minimal threat head on. [0] https://twitter.com/Lukewearechange/status/1480595156483072001 https://twitter.com/Lukewearechange/status/14805951564830720...
- hhmc 5y ago
  It's interesting that you're concerned about the long term _effects_ of boosters, but COVID is nothing to worry about since you're only concerned with _deaths_. Seems disengenous.
  - PKop 5y ago
    The vaccines don't prevent people from getting covid, so why accumulate risks? In any case, common sense says the natural coronavirus would be handled by your body in predictable ways versus the new mRNA engineered substance. Are you telling me since you got the vaccines, you actually think you're going to avoid getting COVID? If this is not what you think, then what the hell are you talking about?
    - snowwrestler 5y ago
      The body handles the mRNA vaccine more predictably than the naturally occurring viable coronavirus. This is not a matter of common sense; it’s possible to test in vitro and in field trials (and there have been a lot of both). The reason is in part because there is less variability from dose to dose of an mRNA vaccine than there is among extant variants of viable SARS-COV-2 coronavirus. That makes it easier to predict what will happen. And it is in part because mRNA vaccines are built up from the existing biochemistry of the body. That is, mRNA vaccines are not a new thing we created, they are a distillation of a natural system that we discovered and studied.
claytongulick 5y ago
It is a dangerous topic (which is weird, right?) And I post on HN under my real name. But it's a genuine question, and I'm going to try to give you a complete response, because I think open discussion on this is important, even though I know that it's an unpopular opinion. It comes down to three things: 1) the studies I've reviewed, which overwhelmingly support the strength of natural immunity 2) the adverse reactions that I've seen personally (I personally know more people that have had more severe reactions from the vaccine than I know who have had severe outcome from covid - purely anecdotal, but hard for me to ignore), and from VAERS (truly frightening), and 3) the very strange authoritarian approach the government and media have taken with this. I don't know of any vaccine or drug trial that would have survived the number of adverse effect that have been reported without being pulled. We keep seeing strange things like the CEO of Reuters being on the board of Pfizer as [1] mentions. But it's immediately flagged on HN. You can't even discuss it. Medical opinions from highly qualified doctors and health experts being silenced, accounts being canceled and removed from FB, Google, etc... frankly, it has me creeped out. I've never seen anything like it. The "othering" of people who make informed choice about vaccination and decide against it is extraordinary. It's a global phenomenon. You can see it in some of the responses to my comment here on HN, even. Take a look at the downvotes for my comment - just for saying that my natural immunity seems to be robust. There don't seem to be many people willing to engage in an open and honest dialog about this, other opinions are silenced by any means available. Maybe it's because I'm older and cranky, maybe it's because of a deep distrust of centralized authority, but the more someone pushes me to do something, anything really, the more I tend to resist. When I couple that with the risk/reward evaluation and the advice of my doctor, all things things come together to make me decide not to do it. [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29879165 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29879165
- MengerSponge 5y ago
  Anyone can report anything to VAERS. It's exactly as scary as the boogeyman. A severe outcome from COVID is hospitalization. You seriously know multiple people who were hospitalized as a result of a vaccine? (X) Doubt. The "othering" is because people who opted out of getting a vaccine have endangered the rest of us. It appears you've continued to participate in society, as evidenced by your reinfection. People generally shouldn't be surprised that they face social sanction when they act in an antisocial way! If you drive recklessly, you go to jail. If you don't get certain vaccines, you don't get to enroll in school. You can't smoke indoors, or even close to doors, in most parts of many countries. The fact that your "informed choice" is driven more by gut feelings, selection bias, and an innate opposition to any and all authority further underscores the point.

bequanna 5y ago

> What will the long term effects be? We don't know. Thank you for bringing this up. It isn’t “anti-science” to ask these type of questions and expect answers. Indeed, it has always been the job of the FDA to hold drug companies responsible for proving that their drugs do not harm. Guilty until proven innocent. Given the rushed approval, incredible profit motive, reluctance of the FDA to respond to FOIA requests and the strong pushback against those who ask questions I think some skepticism is warranted. So far, the cost-benefit for those not in high risk groups (especially children) seems waaaaay off. Why vaccinate children that are at almost no risk of serious illness when we clearly do not have all the info on long term vax risks?

saynay 5y ago
So far, there hasn't been any evidence (I've heard of) of long-term adverse effects of the vaccination. Vaccines are not exactly new science. There has, however, been evidence of long-term effects of catching COVID in some cases. It is pretty obvious which option to take with the currently available evidence.
- bequanna 5y ago
  Right, my argument would be that the “currently available evidence” should be viewed with skepticism given the incredible profit motive involved and current political climate.
- a45a33s 5y ago
  >So far, there hasn't been any evidence (I've heard of) of long-term adverse effects of the vaccination. Vaccines are not exactly new science. the vaccines came out last year, there hasn't even been a long term yet. mrna vaccines are definitely new science, unless you can point me to another mrna vaccine that has been distributed to the public at this scale?
- kkjjkgjjgg 5y ago
  "So far, there hasn't been any evidence (I've heard of) of long-term adverse effects of the vaccination" A couple of people have died, I'd call that a long-term adverse effect. Presumably way less people than would otherwise have died from Covid, so not to say you shouldn't get vaccinated. But to claim there are no known long-term adverse effects is wrong.

et2o 5y ago

Dead wrong that a single bought of COVID is better than 3 vaccine shots. You need repeated exposure. Plus, I’m guessing you’re young-the point was to stop the > million deaths COVID is going to cause in the US alone soon. Nice work.

7steps2much 5y ago

> I thought the marshmallow test was in the other direction - the millions of people who acquired natural immunity through infection, but "grabbed the marshmallow" in the form of the vaccine. What will the long term effects be? We don't know. Assuming that natural immunity is still up to date and kicking, then there shouldn't be any issues with this. After all, the body should recognise and then proceed to battle the vaccine. You may experience symptoms, but at least the way I understood it these are short term, not in the long run. On the other hand, if the natural immunity has weakened then this is good training. So really, as far as I can see there is no reason to ever not take a vaccine unless you had an infection just a short while ago

MengerSponge 5y ago

For what it's worth, recovering from the disease and getting a "booster" vaccine a few months later yields the best protection. I hope you do this. People who are relying solely on disease recovery are far more likely to be reinfected, and face worse outcomes, as compared to people who get their full three-dose vaccine (two primary + booster). Incidentally, your thought process is suffering from the naturalistic fallacy.

mehrdada 5y ago
Where did you get this data? All CDC itself says on the website says “Cases of reinfection with COVID-19 have been reported, but remain rare. [1]” and it seems there is an active effort to suppress the effectiveness of natural immunity effectiveness (at least against the same strain). Intuitively given vaccine’s ineffectiveness at protecting against Omicron spread, I tend to think the push for boosters are quite dubious and natural immunity is at least as good as vax if not better, and sufficiently low risk for Omicron after 2x vax. Besides, anecdotal experience of below 40 adult friends catching Omicron with 2x or 3x vax has been much easier than the two days of bitter experience after their last dose of Moderna. The only acceptable rationale is to flatten the curve so the Omicron surge wouldn’t DoS hospitals in the short term which can happen even if the relative risk of hospitalization is low due to the high transmission rates, but that can be better achieved via more temporary isolation/N95/etc than boosters. [1]: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/your-health/reinfection.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/your-health/reinfe...
- MengerSponge 5y ago

twic 5y ago

> Everything I read supported that natural immunity is at least as protective as the vaccine That is the exact opposite of what i have read. One random example: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7044e1.htm https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7044e1.htm

rhino369 5y ago
Tiny sample size compared to the one from Israel that found the opposite. And the CDC essentially admits the vaccines no longer do much to prevent spread (due to waning protection and new variants). Maybe previous natural immunity has seen the same reduction, but you can't assume that.

amelius 5y ago

Look, if science made an error, then that is a huge opportunity for an army of other scientists to point it out. That's how science works. Don't make the mistake to think that an armchair scientist can outsmart them all with just some basic reasoning perhaps based on personal anecdotes.

jgod 5y ago
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ignaz_Semmelweis https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ignaz_Semmelweis
- amelius 5y ago
  Medical science was far less competitive back then, and more based on status. Nice anecdote, though.