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I think EVs will quickly overtake ICE vehicles once they're price competitive and battery manufacturing scales up to the levels needed, but that's a separate is
by elihu 5y ago
I think EVs will quickly overtake ICE vehicles once they're price competitive and battery manufacturing scales up to the levels needed, but that's a separate issue from government bans.
My point is that several governments now have policies in place that say they're going to ban the sale of new ICE vehicles after a certain date. But they aren't going to disallow the use of ICE vehicles in their country or on their roads, which is what it would mean if they were literally going to ban ICE vehicles.
I've seen a number of articles with headlines like "X country is banning ICE vehicles after 20YZ" but then the article contents specify that it's a ban on the sale of new vehicles, which isn't the same thing. This is unhelpful sensationalism that is likely to convince a lot of conservative people that government agents are going to show up at their front door on a certain date with a tow truck to take away their Ford F150 or whatever, and that's just not the case. So, whenever I see anything that uncritically repeats that idea I find it necessary to post a comment saying that "banning ICE vehicles" isn't the same thing as "banning the sale of new ICE vehicle" in hopes that fewer people are confused and maybe more people will demand clear and accurate communication on this issue.
In the long run, bans on the sale of new vehicles will mean that existing ICE vehicles will wear out unless people want to make the extra effort to keep them running, which for most of them it's just not worth it. So, this achieves the needed policy objectives without antagonizing existing ICE vehicle owners. In other words, it's actually a much more reasonable and moderate position than what the word "ban" implies.
- majewsky 5y ago> I think EVs will quickly overtake ICE vehicles once they're price competitive and battery manufacturing scales up to the levels needed, but that's a separate issue from government bans. Not entirely. Government bans provide additional incentive for manufacturers to switch to EVs, which hastens price competitiveness through economy-of-scale effects.
- Arnt 5y agoIt sounds as if you're disregarding early effects of the bans and overvaluing late ones. For example, if someplace bans new ICE car sales from 2032, ten years from now, what does that do for the value of car-related businesses in 2027, five years from now? If you own a petrol station in a city and are offered a lowish price from a property developer, do you close the business? Or do you assume that you can sell at a higher price in 2037? Or if you're looking for a new car in 2027, five years before the ban takes effect, do you think you'll be able to sell your car at a nice price in 2037? As of 2027 there's no ban on selling used cars, but do you trust that to remain?
- erosenbe0 5y agoThe total cost of ownership for an EV is still pathetic in a certain sense if I need to allot even 10 extra minutes waiting for a charge somewhere on a weekly basis. Especially a small business owner like Joe Plumber -- that's around 10k in lost job time over the life of the vehicle. If I'm well-off with thousands of watts wired to my garage then great but that's not so many people especially in denser cities as well as plenty of business fleets. It's like the reverse of switching from coal to natural gas heating. Coal required delivering and shoveling a bunch of dirty fuel and ash around frequently, which was a waste of time, so the switch to gas was welcomed as time-saving and much much cleaner. EVs are so much cleaner and quieter than ICE but the convenience factor is not solved yet
- anthonyskipper 5y agoYou sound like someone who doesn't own an EV? I plug mine into a standard outlet outside my house. It's pretty much always charged. If your plumber is driving so far they need to recharge on the way I think you have bigger problems than the ROI on the vehicle.
- krageon 5y ago> business fleets In every case that I am aware of, a business takes care of this (i.e. I've seen it done). It's not exactly complicated - it's just a bit of work.
- erosenbe0 5y agoIn most cases that I am aware of, small businesses have zero ability to deal with this. For example, the local HVAC company has 12 or so vans that are just parked in some lot with a small office. There is no garage and no infrastructure for charging. Same with my landscape person and snow removal person and so forth. They just park their vehicles in some warehouse lot.
- prawn 5y agoIf the lot has power, wouldn't they just install charging infrastructure? From a quick search around, it doesn't look too expensive. Unless the weather is an issue while it's charging?
- theshrike79 5y agoI agree, there won't be any "bans" for ICEs per se. But there WILL be higher congestion charges and maybe even localised bans for ICEs in city centres. No one wants a smoking diesel truck idling under their window if they have the option to replace it with a quiet EV.
- throwaway0a5e 5y agoDisagree. Jurisdictions that (though mostly happenstance of economics and demographic distribution) wind up with most ICE users being economically marginalized or a political minority will enact bans. It's a great way to win political brownie points so it'll be done.