5 ms·

Cars don’t last as long as you’d think, on average. There will also be a knee in the curve where the ICE fleet drops below critical mass and gas stations start

by ip26 5y ago

Cars don’t last as long as you’d think, on average. There will also be a knee in the curve where the ICE fleet drops below critical mass and gas stations start shutting down - and the harder it becomes to find a station, the faster people will switch.

ncmncm 5y ago
They last a hell of a lot longer than they did when we were still putting TEPb in the fuel.
- jeffbee 5y ago
  The lifespans of cars have been elongating rapidly. The median car on the road recently passed 12 years. Especially sensible cars with medium-displacement engines making little power through a CVT, these will go a million miles with ease. The long tail of model year 2030 Honda Civics is going to be almost impossible to eradicate without controlling the supply of fossil motor fuels.
  - ncmncm 5y ago
    There will be a demand for synfuels, and conversion kits, because as power generation cost continues to plummet, it will rapidly become too expensive to explore for and extract petroleum to drive any such activity.
  - speedgoose 5y ago
    I don’t know. I think that few people would prefer to drive an old , slow, non responsive, smelly, inconvenient, and expensive to drive Honda by 2050. These cars are already unloved in Norway. A classic American muscle car or an Italian supercar yes of course, but the Honda Civic will be recycled IMHO.
    - mekkkkkk 5y ago
      Who cares about Norway though. What about India, China, Brazil etc.? Are they mainly going to scrap their old functional ICE cars and buy brand new, fresh smelling EVs?
      - speedgoose 5y ago
        Why would the (most likely) first world power drive shitty cars ?
kxrm 5y ago
I think ICE cars will see a retro use period like many nostalgic things, so while I agree the daily driver will change, it's very likely that fuel will be seen as some sort of luxury product. Right now fuel is a loss leader for most gas stations, that dynamic will definitely change as ICE vehicles become a toy or status symbol for upper middle class and wealthy people.
- kenneth 5y ago
  Huh, you're saying that gas station sell their main product at a loss and then make back the difference on what… tictacs and slim jims?
  - majewsky 5y ago
    Actually yes. I don't recall it being a loss leader, but at the very least, gasoline has a very low margin because the gas price market is highly price-competitive. Store items have a much higher margin (as much is obvious just by looking at sticker prices). The average motorist will not purchase a lot from the store (as seen from your quip about "tictacs and slim jims"), but you also have truck drivers who are much more frequent customers of gas stations.
  - pjerem 5y ago
    I don't know how it is in the US, but in France, yes, most gas stations are owned by adjacent stores and they make really little margins (actually, there are frequent sales of gasoline at cost price). In fact, when buying gasoline in those stations, it's common to receive some voucher for the owner's store. Other stations are owned by petrol corporations but they are in direct competition when they are near stores or they are very expensive when they are located on our highways, which are privatized(and it's a shame), so they are in some sort of closed market since you cannot leave the highway without paying.
- Tobu 5y ago
  Boutique carrying the finest petroleum and other refined goods: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uqkmaIfWMWQ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uqkmaIfWMWQ (Shot during another wave of rising gas prices)
elihu 5y ago
I think EVs will quickly overtake ICE vehicles once they're price competitive and battery manufacturing scales up to the levels needed, but that's a separate issue from government bans. My point is that several governments now have policies in place that say they're going to ban the sale of new ICE vehicles after a certain date. But they aren't going to disallow the use of ICE vehicles in their country or on their roads, which is what it would mean if they were literally going to ban ICE vehicles. I've seen a number of articles with headlines like "X country is banning ICE vehicles after 20YZ" but then the article contents specify that it's a ban on the sale of new vehicles, which isn't the same thing. This is unhelpful sensationalism that is likely to convince a lot of conservative people that government agents are going to show up at their front door on a certain date with a tow truck to take away their Ford F150 or whatever, and that's just not the case. So, whenever I see anything that uncritically repeats that idea I find it necessary to post a comment saying that "banning ICE vehicles" isn't the same thing as "banning the sale of new ICE vehicle" in hopes that fewer people are confused and maybe more people will demand clear and accurate communication on this issue. In the long run, bans on the sale of new vehicles will mean that existing ICE vehicles will wear out unless people want to make the extra effort to keep them running, which for most of them it's just not worth it. So, this achieves the needed policy objectives without antagonizing existing ICE vehicle owners. In other words, it's actually a much more reasonable and moderate position than what the word "ban" implies.
- majewsky 5y ago
  > I think EVs will quickly overtake ICE vehicles once they're price competitive and battery manufacturing scales up to the levels needed, but that's a separate issue from government bans. Not entirely. Government bans provide additional incentive for manufacturers to switch to EVs, which hastens price competitiveness through economy-of-scale effects.
- Arnt 5y ago
  It sounds as if you're disregarding early effects of the bans and overvaluing late ones. For example, if someplace bans new ICE car sales from 2032, ten years from now, what does that do for the value of car-related businesses in 2027, five years from now? If you own a petrol station in a city and are offered a lowish price from a property developer, do you close the business? Or do you assume that you can sell at a higher price in 2037? Or if you're looking for a new car in 2027, five years before the ban takes effect, do you think you'll be able to sell your car at a nice price in 2037? As of 2027 there's no ban on selling used cars, but do you trust that to remain?

by ip26 5y ago

ncmncm 5y ago

They last a hell of a lot longer than they did when we were still putting TEPb in the fuel.

jeffbee 5y ago
The lifespans of cars have been elongating rapidly. The median car on the road recently passed 12 years. Especially sensible cars with medium-displacement engines making little power through a CVT, these will go a million miles with ease. The long tail of model year 2030 Honda Civics is going to be almost impossible to eradicate without controlling the supply of fossil motor fuels.
- ncmncm 5y ago
  There will be a demand for synfuels, and conversion kits, because as power generation cost continues to plummet, it will rapidly become too expensive to explore for and extract petroleum to drive any such activity.
- speedgoose 5y ago
  I don’t know. I think that few people would prefer to drive an old , slow, non responsive, smelly, inconvenient, and expensive to drive Honda by 2050. These cars are already unloved in Norway. A classic American muscle car or an Italian supercar yes of course, but the Honda Civic will be recycled IMHO.
  - mekkkkkk 5y ago
    Who cares about Norway though. What about India, China, Brazil etc.? Are they mainly going to scrap their old functional ICE cars and buy brand new, fresh smelling EVs?
    - speedgoose 5y ago
      Why would the (most likely) first world power drive shitty cars ?

kxrm 5y ago

I think ICE cars will see a retro use period like many nostalgic things, so while I agree the daily driver will change, it's very likely that fuel will be seen as some sort of luxury product. Right now fuel is a loss leader for most gas stations, that dynamic will definitely change as ICE vehicles become a toy or status symbol for upper middle class and wealthy people.

kenneth 5y ago
Huh, you're saying that gas station sell their main product at a loss and then make back the difference on what… tictacs and slim jims?
- majewsky 5y ago
  Actually yes. I don't recall it being a loss leader, but at the very least, gasoline has a very low margin because the gas price market is highly price-competitive. Store items have a much higher margin (as much is obvious just by looking at sticker prices). The average motorist will not purchase a lot from the store (as seen from your quip about "tictacs and slim jims"), but you also have truck drivers who are much more frequent customers of gas stations.
- pjerem 5y ago
  I don't know how it is in the US, but in France, yes, most gas stations are owned by adjacent stores and they make really little margins (actually, there are frequent sales of gasoline at cost price). In fact, when buying gasoline in those stations, it's common to receive some voucher for the owner's store. Other stations are owned by petrol corporations but they are in direct competition when they are near stores or they are very expensive when they are located on our highways, which are privatized(and it's a shame), so they are in some sort of closed market since you cannot leave the highway without paying.
Tobu 5y ago
Boutique carrying the finest petroleum and other refined goods: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uqkmaIfWMWQ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uqkmaIfWMWQ (Shot during another wave of rising gas prices)

elihu 5y ago

I think EVs will quickly overtake ICE vehicles once they're price competitive and battery manufacturing scales up to the levels needed, but that's a separate issue from government bans. My point is that several governments now have policies in place that say they're going to ban the sale of new ICE vehicles after a certain date. But they aren't going to disallow the use of ICE vehicles in their country or on their roads, which is what it would mean if they were literally going to ban ICE vehicles. I've seen a number of articles with headlines like "X country is banning ICE vehicles after 20YZ" but then the article contents specify that it's a ban on the sale of new vehicles, which isn't the same thing. This is unhelpful sensationalism that is likely to convince a lot of conservative people that government agents are going to show up at their front door on a certain date with a tow truck to take away their Ford F150 or whatever, and that's just not the case. So, whenever I see anything that uncritically repeats that idea I find it necessary to post a comment saying that "banning ICE vehicles" isn't the same thing as "banning the sale of new ICE vehicle" in hopes that fewer people are confused and maybe more people will demand clear and accurate communication on this issue. In the long run, bans on the sale of new vehicles will mean that existing ICE vehicles will wear out unless people want to make the extra effort to keep them running, which for most of them it's just not worth it. So, this achieves the needed policy objectives without antagonizing existing ICE vehicle owners. In other words, it's actually a much more reasonable and moderate position than what the word "ban" implies.

majewsky 5y ago
> I think EVs will quickly overtake ICE vehicles once they're price competitive and battery manufacturing scales up to the levels needed, but that's a separate issue from government bans. Not entirely. Government bans provide additional incentive for manufacturers to switch to EVs, which hastens price competitiveness through economy-of-scale effects.
Arnt 5y ago
It sounds as if you're disregarding early effects of the bans and overvaluing late ones. For example, if someplace bans new ICE car sales from 2032, ten years from now, what does that do for the value of car-related businesses in 2027, five years from now? If you own a petrol station in a city and are offered a lowish price from a property developer, do you close the business? Or do you assume that you can sell at a higher price in 2037? Or if you're looking for a new car in 2027, five years before the ban takes effect, do you think you'll be able to sell your car at a nice price in 2037? As of 2027 there's no ban on selling used cars, but do you trust that to remain?