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I find your conflation of support for vaccines with support for lockdowns rather odd, because vaccines are the main thing that lessens the need for social restr

I find your conflation of support for vaccines with support for lockdowns rather odd, because vaccines are the main thing that lessens the need for social restrictions! > Anti vaxx movement is dead. The vaccines are incredibly leaky, and cause pretty severe side effects especially in young men. They do not allow society to resume normality even if 100% are vaccinated ( do the math, the effect wears off so fast that its impossible to keep 100% even if every single himan on the planet had access and diligently showed up ). They are leaky, but not incredibly so. They show around 70-80% protection (with 3 doses for Omicron, 2 for earlier variants). That's a massive difference, especially when you consider that for a second-order transmission that reduces the chance by 80% of the 20% remaining, making it 95% effective and so on. As a young person who has had ongoing side effects from the vaccine, I have to say that I'm the only person I know who has had this problem. It's very rare. Similar side effects from covid itself are much more common in all demographic categories (except for moderna in young men - they should get a different vaccine).

ThunderSizzle 5y ago
80% isn't protection. 80% still gets you pregnant. Honestly, it's probably healthier for everyone to turn off the news for a half year, and did not worry about it. If you get sick, take care of it. If you don't, take care of those who do. Lose weight. Exercise. Eat healthy. Live your life. Build and nurture friendships. Find and improve hobbies. Grow your family. You'll be fine until you die. But you can die any and every day for any arbitrary reason, so forget COVID and start taking care of life.
- paulryanrogers 5y ago
  > If you get sick, take care of it. If you don't, take care of those who do. Hospitals were getting overwhelmed. So "taking care of it" for many was not as trivial as the usual flu. Consider that 40% of adults in the US are obese which is a complicating factor for unvaxed infection.
  - ThunderSizzle 5y ago
    Lose weight. Eat healthy. Eat less. Exercise. Self control and discipline suck, but there's no easy button to life. People wanted the Vax to be an easy button.
    - paulryanrogers 5y ago
      While I agree there is an element of personal responsibility to obesity, the industrialized food system is rigged to make everyone fat if they live long enough. It requires winning the genetic lottery or having a significant amount of self control to maintain a healthy weight as one ages. In some places healthier food is also more expensive, such as in major cities and food deserts. Until the food industries are regulated more responsibility it's unrealistic and cruel for those of us born to be thinner to demand people 'just' exercise more and eat less.
- oliveshell 5y ago
  > 80% isn't protection. 80% still gets you pregnant. Serious question: I get that this is supposed to be a clever metaphor but what the hell does this even mean in a vaccine context?
- bobbyasdfasdf7 5y ago
- maxerickson 5y ago
  People with 2 dose vaccinations are well protected from serious disease, taking up small fraction of hospital capacity (less intensive, shorter stays). Boosted folks are taking up less than that. It probably doesn't matter a lot for healthy people under 30, but that leaves an awful lot of people over 30 or with health problems where the available vaccines are hugely protective.
whatthesmack 5y ago
> They show around 70-80% protection (with 3 doses for Omicron, 2 for earlier variants) That protection level lasts for about two months and then nosedives to uselessness[0]. If we keep pumping people with boosters, the manufacturers and the media aren't going to be able to keep suppressing reporting about the resulting heart issues the mRNA vaccines cause in many people[1]. Again, the vaccines are astoundingly leaky and were designed for a variant of the virus that hasn't existed in any meaningful way for a while. People with only natural immunity from any variant are shown to have much better protection than mRNA vaccinated and boosted people[2]. [0] https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/23/health/booster-protection-omicron.html https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/23/health/booster-protection... [1] https://alexberenson.substack.com/p/more-bad-news-on-covid-vaccines-and/comments https://alexberenson.substack.com/p/more-bad-news-on-covid-v... [2] https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.24.21262415v1.full.pdf https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.24.21262415v...
- marcosdumay 5y ago
  Do you know of any mirror of that paper that loads?
- maxerickson 5y ago
  People with 2 dose vaccination in the UK mostly aren't spending time in critical care: https://twitter.com/PaulMainwood/status/1479528897259712513 https://twitter.com/PaulMainwood/status/1479528897259712513
makomk 5y ago
The current vaccines are leaky enough that any reductions in social restrictions below strict lockdown mean pretty much everyone is going to get Covid, generally over a very short time period. There doesn't seem to be any way around this. Also, the feasibility of putting lesser restrictions in place to try and spread the hospital load out is damaged by the fact that protection from vaccination fades relatively quickly - and that doesn't just seem to affect protection against infection, but also hospitalization and death. They're effective at reducing the number of deaths but just aren't the way out people like to claim they are.
- sokoloff 5y ago
  “Pretty much everyone is going to get COVID” is how I feel as well, just like pretty much everyone is going to get the flu across any given 50 year span. Some will die from it, most will not. (C19 is obviously worse than a typical flu, but by less than a decimal order of magnitude.) Then the interesting question is what to do about it. You can give up a lot of life’s freedoms and enjoyment to maybe cut that 50-year risk in half. Is that worth it? To my reckoning: Not to me, not to my elderly parents, and not to my kids. I’m thankful that my kids are at least pre-teen and not (yet) teen or college age where our choices are hitting much harder.
- maxerickson 5y ago
  There's basically no boosted folks spending time in the hospital in this dataset, and very few vaccinated: https://twitter.com/PaulMainwood/status/1479528897259712513 https://twitter.com/PaulMainwood/status/1479528897259712513 US data has a similar separation between vaccinated and not: https://twitter.com/cliffordlevy/status/1480184928054779905 https://twitter.com/cliffordlevy/status/1480184928054779905 I guess if people are making their decisions based on a belief that significant reductions in hospitalization aren't beneficial, that explains something.
  - makomk 5y ago
    That graph is from the UK, where most of the people spending time in hospital due to Covid are vaccinated. The thing is that as you can see from the graph, there's a huge difference in hospitalisation rates between age groups, and in the UK there's not that many unvaccinated people amongst the high-risk age groups. (Actually, I'd be interested what the error bars on that are because they're subtracting vaccinations from the population estimate to get the denominator of total unvaccinated people and it seems like that'd be very sensitive to errors in their population estimate.) So there is a signficant reduction in the risk of hospitalisation from vaccination right now, but we're seeing close to all the benefit that we're likely to at least from a society-wide perspective. There's no way to stop the hospital system from collapsing just by rounding up the remaining unvaccinated and getting them vaccinated. (Individual unvaccinated people might of course get a lot of personal benefit from getting jabbed, depending on age and health.)
Breazy 5y ago
bleuchase 5y ago
> They show around 70-80% protection (with 3 doses for Omicron, 2 for earlier variants). What is the absolute risk reduction you get from the shots? “95% effective” is a relative risk reduction and only refers to severe illness or death, not infection or transmission (neither of which were studied).

ThunderSizzle 5y ago

80% isn't protection. 80% still gets you pregnant. Honestly, it's probably healthier for everyone to turn off the news for a half year, and did not worry about it. If you get sick, take care of it. If you don't, take care of those who do. Lose weight. Exercise. Eat healthy. Live your life. Build and nurture friendships. Find and improve hobbies. Grow your family. You'll be fine until you die. But you can die any and every day for any arbitrary reason, so forget COVID and start taking care of life.

paulryanrogers 5y ago
> If you get sick, take care of it. If you don't, take care of those who do. Hospitals were getting overwhelmed. So "taking care of it" for many was not as trivial as the usual flu. Consider that 40% of adults in the US are obese which is a complicating factor for unvaxed infection.
- ThunderSizzle 5y ago
  Lose weight. Eat healthy. Eat less. Exercise. Self control and discipline suck, but there's no easy button to life. People wanted the Vax to be an easy button.
  - paulryanrogers 5y ago
    While I agree there is an element of personal responsibility to obesity, the industrialized food system is rigged to make everyone fat if they live long enough. It requires winning the genetic lottery or having a significant amount of self control to maintain a healthy weight as one ages. In some places healthier food is also more expensive, such as in major cities and food deserts. Until the food industries are regulated more responsibility it's unrealistic and cruel for those of us born to be thinner to demand people 'just' exercise more and eat less.
oliveshell 5y ago
> 80% isn't protection. 80% still gets you pregnant. Serious question: I get that this is supposed to be a clever metaphor but what the hell does this even mean in a vaccine context?
bobbyasdfasdf7 5y ago
maxerickson 5y ago
People with 2 dose vaccinations are well protected from serious disease, taking up small fraction of hospital capacity (less intensive, shorter stays). Boosted folks are taking up less than that. It probably doesn't matter a lot for healthy people under 30, but that leaves an awful lot of people over 30 or with health problems where the available vaccines are hugely protective.

whatthesmack 5y ago

> They show around 70-80% protection (with 3 doses for Omicron, 2 for earlier variants) That protection level lasts for about two months and then nosedives to uselessness[0]. If we keep pumping people with boosters, the manufacturers and the media aren't going to be able to keep suppressing reporting about the resulting heart issues the mRNA vaccines cause in many people[1]. Again, the vaccines are astoundingly leaky and were designed for a variant of the virus that hasn't existed in any meaningful way for a while. People with only natural immunity from any variant are shown to have much better protection than mRNA vaccinated and boosted people[2]. [0] https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/23/health/booster-protection-omicron.html https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/23/health/booster-protection... [1] https://alexberenson.substack.com/p/more-bad-news-on-covid-vaccines-and/comments https://alexberenson.substack.com/p/more-bad-news-on-covid-v... [2] https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.24.21262415v1.full.pdf https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.24.21262415v...

marcosdumay 5y ago
Do you know of any mirror of that paper that loads?
maxerickson 5y ago
People with 2 dose vaccination in the UK mostly aren't spending time in critical care: https://twitter.com/PaulMainwood/status/1479528897259712513 https://twitter.com/PaulMainwood/status/1479528897259712513

makomk 5y ago

The current vaccines are leaky enough that any reductions in social restrictions below strict lockdown mean pretty much everyone is going to get Covid, generally over a very short time period. There doesn't seem to be any way around this. Also, the feasibility of putting lesser restrictions in place to try and spread the hospital load out is damaged by the fact that protection from vaccination fades relatively quickly - and that doesn't just seem to affect protection against infection, but also hospitalization and death. They're effective at reducing the number of deaths but just aren't the way out people like to claim they are.

sokoloff 5y ago
“Pretty much everyone is going to get COVID” is how I feel as well, just like pretty much everyone is going to get the flu across any given 50 year span. Some will die from it, most will not. (C19 is obviously worse than a typical flu, but by less than a decimal order of magnitude.) Then the interesting question is what to do about it. You can give up a lot of life’s freedoms and enjoyment to maybe cut that 50-year risk in half. Is that worth it? To my reckoning: Not to me, not to my elderly parents, and not to my kids. I’m thankful that my kids are at least pre-teen and not (yet) teen or college age where our choices are hitting much harder.
maxerickson 5y ago
There's basically no boosted folks spending time in the hospital in this dataset, and very few vaccinated: https://twitter.com/PaulMainwood/status/1479528897259712513 https://twitter.com/PaulMainwood/status/1479528897259712513 US data has a similar separation between vaccinated and not: https://twitter.com/cliffordlevy/status/1480184928054779905 https://twitter.com/cliffordlevy/status/1480184928054779905 I guess if people are making their decisions based on a belief that significant reductions in hospitalization aren't beneficial, that explains something.
- makomk 5y ago
  That graph is from the UK, where most of the people spending time in hospital due to Covid are vaccinated. The thing is that as you can see from the graph, there's a huge difference in hospitalisation rates between age groups, and in the UK there's not that many unvaccinated people amongst the high-risk age groups. (Actually, I'd be interested what the error bars on that are because they're subtracting vaccinations from the population estimate to get the denominator of total unvaccinated people and it seems like that'd be very sensitive to errors in their population estimate.) So there is a signficant reduction in the risk of hospitalisation from vaccination right now, but we're seeing close to all the benefit that we're likely to at least from a society-wide perspective. There's no way to stop the hospital system from collapsing just by rounding up the remaining unvaccinated and getting them vaccinated. (Individual unvaccinated people might of course get a lot of personal benefit from getting jabbed, depending on age and health.)

Breazy 5y ago

bleuchase 5y ago

> They show around 70-80% protection (with 3 doses for Omicron, 2 for earlier variants). What is the absolute risk reduction you get from the shots? “95% effective” is a relative risk reduction and only refers to severe illness or death, not infection or transmission (neither of which were studied).