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> What do we do if their parents end up unable to work due to long term COVID or worse their parents die? Indeed. Parents should also be vaccinated. It would b

> What do we do if their parents end up unable to work due to long term COVID or worse their parents die? Indeed. Parents should also be vaccinated. It would be reasonable to delay school until that point. (This is an additional delay over those previously mentioned in parent comments in this thread.) However, we should also expect that all parents will be exposed to the virus sooner or later, as we have been told from the earliest days of the pandemic, and thus we should limit further delay. Yes, parents will get COVID from kids who go to school. Yes, unfortunately, there will be children orphaned as a result of that exposure. No, there won't be substantial numbers of net orphans -- certainly not such that crippling public education for years or even decades is the more humane response.

dagmx 5y ago
It's not just about death though, it's about hospitalization and long term effects too. We've had multiple major variants. Also what number of orphans is acceptable? 30% of the US won't vaccinate. Delta has a mortality rate of 3+%(1) by the most charitable takes. Rough math would show that could add somewhere under 1 million orphans to the system. Do we also ignore medical costs for those who get sick? What about the hospital resources those people take up? Again, there's just so much more than "just the children" 1. I'm estimating 3% for Delta by taking the NHS estimate of 1.9% CFR for Alpha and the subsequent estimates that Delta had around double the risk of fatality.
- nradov 5y ago
  Please stop spreading misinformation about a serious subject. The CDC estimated the infection fatality rate at 0.6%. There is no credible evidence of a 3% rate at the population level. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burden.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burd...
  - dagmx 5y ago
    I was estimating based on NHS numbers that showed a CFR of 1.9% for alpha and the estimates showing delta at being double the CFR. Not trying to spread misinformation, but I'm specifically talking about delta in a fully unvaccinated group in the case that everyone gets it (which is the colloquial talking point for people who say "everyone will eventually have covid" used to dismiss the precautions) EDIT: HN won't let me reply to the comment below me until the cool down period. They say my argument is not in good faith, which is an odd assertion to make. Their comment assumes a higher case count than reported, which while likely, is not an assumption I'm making because it's hard to discern whether there is also therefore uncounted mortality.
    - nradov 5y ago
      Case fatality rates are completely irrelevant. Most infected patients are never tested and thus never officially counted as a "case". Everyone is aware of that now, so if you're still citing CFR numbers then you're obviously acting in bad faith.
- morsch 5y ago
  Delta has a mortality rate of 3+% by the most charitable takes. What's your reference for that?
- colordrops 5y ago
  Even if this 3% number was accurate, which it's not, the most vulnerable group of people typically do not have school age children.
deleted 5y ago
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dagmx 5y ago

It's not just about death though, it's about hospitalization and long term effects too. We've had multiple major variants. Also what number of orphans is acceptable? 30% of the US won't vaccinate. Delta has a mortality rate of 3+%(1) by the most charitable takes. Rough math would show that could add somewhere under 1 million orphans to the system. Do we also ignore medical costs for those who get sick? What about the hospital resources those people take up? Again, there's just so much more than "just the children" 1. I'm estimating 3% for Delta by taking the NHS estimate of 1.9% CFR for Alpha and the subsequent estimates that Delta had around double the risk of fatality.

nradov 5y ago
Please stop spreading misinformation about a serious subject. The CDC estimated the infection fatality rate at 0.6%. There is no credible evidence of a 3% rate at the population level. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burden.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burd...
- dagmx 5y ago
  I was estimating based on NHS numbers that showed a CFR of 1.9% for alpha and the estimates showing delta at being double the CFR. Not trying to spread misinformation, but I'm specifically talking about delta in a fully unvaccinated group in the case that everyone gets it (which is the colloquial talking point for people who say "everyone will eventually have covid" used to dismiss the precautions) EDIT: HN won't let me reply to the comment below me until the cool down period. They say my argument is not in good faith, which is an odd assertion to make. Their comment assumes a higher case count than reported, which while likely, is not an assumption I'm making because it's hard to discern whether there is also therefore uncounted mortality.
  - nradov 5y ago
    Case fatality rates are completely irrelevant. Most infected patients are never tested and thus never officially counted as a "case". Everyone is aware of that now, so if you're still citing CFR numbers then you're obviously acting in bad faith.
morsch 5y ago
Delta has a mortality rate of 3+% by the most charitable takes. What's your reference for that?
colordrops 5y ago
Even if this 3% number was accurate, which it's not, the most vulnerable group of people typically do not have school age children.

deleted 5y ago

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