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>2. It's low risk to almost ALL children. What do we do if their parents end up unable to work due to long term COVID or worse their parents die? https://data

>2. It's low risk to almost ALL children. What do we do if their parents end up unable to work due to long term COVID or worse their parents die? https://data.cdc.gov/widgets/9bhg-hcku?mobile_redirect=true https://data.cdc.gov/widgets/9bhg-hcku?mobile_redirect=true 30-64yo are a significant percentage of total deaths. 30-55 is probably a reasonable age range for parents with dependent children. >3. Please present evidence of long term effect in a non-negligible percentage of children You realise we are still going through the pandemic right? There is no long term data either way anywhere because we have to live through it first.

fennecfoxen 5y ago
> What do we do if their parents end up unable to work due to long term COVID or worse their parents die? Indeed. Parents should also be vaccinated. It would be reasonable to delay school until that point. (This is an additional delay over those previously mentioned in parent comments in this thread.) However, we should also expect that all parents will be exposed to the virus sooner or later, as we have been told from the earliest days of the pandemic, and thus we should limit further delay. Yes, parents will get COVID from kids who go to school. Yes, unfortunately, there will be children orphaned as a result of that exposure. No, there won't be substantial numbers of net orphans -- certainly not such that crippling public education for years or even decades is the more humane response.
- dagmx 5y ago
  It's not just about death though, it's about hospitalization and long term effects too. We've had multiple major variants. Also what number of orphans is acceptable? 30% of the US won't vaccinate. Delta has a mortality rate of 3+%(1) by the most charitable takes. Rough math would show that could add somewhere under 1 million orphans to the system. Do we also ignore medical costs for those who get sick? What about the hospital resources those people take up? Again, there's just so much more than "just the children" 1. I'm estimating 3% for Delta by taking the NHS estimate of 1.9% CFR for Alpha and the subsequent estimates that Delta had around double the risk of fatality.
  - nradov 5y ago
    Please stop spreading misinformation about a serious subject. The CDC estimated the infection fatality rate at 0.6%. There is no credible evidence of a 3% rate at the population level. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burden.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burd...
    - dagmx 5y ago
      I was estimating based on NHS numbers that showed a CFR of 1.9% for alpha and the estimates showing delta at being double the CFR. Not trying to spread misinformation, but I'm specifically talking about delta in a fully unvaccinated group in the case that everyone gets it (which is the colloquial talking point for people who say "everyone will eventually have covid" used to dismiss the precautions) EDIT: HN won't let me reply to the comment below me until the cool down period. They say my argument is not in good faith, which is an odd assertion to make. Their comment assumes a higher case count than reported, which while likely, is not an assumption I'm making because it's hard to discern whether there is also therefore uncounted mortality.
      - nradov 5y ago
        Case fatality rates are completely irrelevant. Most infected patients are never tested and thus never officially counted as a "case". Everyone is aware of that now, so if you're still citing CFR numbers then you're obviously acting in bad faith.
  - morsch 5y ago
    Delta has a mortality rate of 3+% by the most charitable takes. What's your reference for that?
  - colordrops 5y ago
    Even if this 3% number was accurate, which it's not, the most vulnerable group of people typically do not have school age children.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
_aavaa_ 5y ago
> 3. Covid is not a one and done. You get it, and it can have long term lasting effects even if it doesn't kill you. That applies to children as well. > 3. Please present evidence of long term effect in a non-negligible percentage of children > There is no long term data either way anywhere because we have to live through it first. If we don’t have long term data one way or the other, why is the starting assumption that children will experience long Covid to the same extent and same severity as adults (especially given that they have much lower rates of getting a serious case of covid compared to adults)?
- dagmx 5y ago
  Because early results show that there are long term effects in children, we just don't know how bad, and we already know about long covid in adults. Long covid also doesn't require having very severe symptoms either. And again, children don't exist in a vacuum and can therefore cause long term issues in adults. This is about being cautious based on what we do know. And we do know it's a crippling societal risk that children are such a huge vector.
pdimitar 5y ago
> What do we do if their parents end up unable to work due to long term COVID or worse their parents die? What will my mother's friend's family do after their father, husband and sole provider died within 10 minutes of taking the vaccine, right there on the spot, on the vaccine queue? (Answer: the family almost got evicted by the way. And lived in poverty for 7-8 months before recovering.) Where do we draw the line, I ask?
- dagmx 5y ago
  Simple statistics show that the risk of dying by taking the vaccine is significantly lower than the risk of dying from covid. Someone having the vaccine also doesn't increase the risk of someone else dying. It's pretty simple.
  - pdimitar 5y ago
    > Someone having the vaccine also doesn't increase the risk of someone else dying. It's pretty simple. This is a non-sequitur. I ask the reverse: how do I help society by vaccinating? Judging by the contemporary info out there -- I don't in any way or form. I don't reduce the spread and I won't reduce my symptoms because I got through it 3 times without realizing and only the first time was bad (and it was before the news of the pandemic even started so I couldn't have known; and there were no vaccines back then so I had no choice). Your reply is not helpful. > Simple statistics show that the risk of dying by taking the vaccine is significantly lower than the risk of dying from covid. So it's okay if people die of taking the vaccine but it's not okay if they die of Covid? Got it, thanks. "Smaller percent" is a very inhumane way of looking at it. You're counting lives as if they are rice grains. You should be ashamed of yourself. People still die, regardless of percents. It's IMO understandable that many elders in my country decide against the vaccine because in many of them it evokes a severe immune response that carries an actual risk of death on the same day. Do you just write them off with "they are a smaller percent than Covid deaths"? How humane of you. Your response is shockingly insensitive.
    - dagmx 5y ago
      You're clearly uninformed on vaccination issues and spreading FUD in the process. Trying to paint me as insensitive is a cute tactic to hide your ignorance. Vaccination helps reduce the risk of you catching the virus, spreading the virus, reduces the risk of hospitalization, reduces the risk of you taking medical resources from someone else. The risk of a "severe immune response that will cause death" is statistically MUCH lower than the risk of catching and dying from covid. Not accommodating your sealioning is the humane response.

fennecfoxen 5y ago

> What do we do if their parents end up unable to work due to long term COVID or worse their parents die? Indeed. Parents should also be vaccinated. It would be reasonable to delay school until that point. (This is an additional delay over those previously mentioned in parent comments in this thread.) However, we should also expect that all parents will be exposed to the virus sooner or later, as we have been told from the earliest days of the pandemic, and thus we should limit further delay. Yes, parents will get COVID from kids who go to school. Yes, unfortunately, there will be children orphaned as a result of that exposure. No, there won't be substantial numbers of net orphans -- certainly not such that crippling public education for years or even decades is the more humane response.

dagmx 5y ago
It's not just about death though, it's about hospitalization and long term effects too. We've had multiple major variants. Also what number of orphans is acceptable? 30% of the US won't vaccinate. Delta has a mortality rate of 3+%(1) by the most charitable takes. Rough math would show that could add somewhere under 1 million orphans to the system. Do we also ignore medical costs for those who get sick? What about the hospital resources those people take up? Again, there's just so much more than "just the children" 1. I'm estimating 3% for Delta by taking the NHS estimate of 1.9% CFR for Alpha and the subsequent estimates that Delta had around double the risk of fatality.
- nradov 5y ago
  Please stop spreading misinformation about a serious subject. The CDC estimated the infection fatality rate at 0.6%. There is no credible evidence of a 3% rate at the population level. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burden.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burd...
  - dagmx 5y ago
    I was estimating based on NHS numbers that showed a CFR of 1.9% for alpha and the estimates showing delta at being double the CFR. Not trying to spread misinformation, but I'm specifically talking about delta in a fully unvaccinated group in the case that everyone gets it (which is the colloquial talking point for people who say "everyone will eventually have covid" used to dismiss the precautions) EDIT: HN won't let me reply to the comment below me until the cool down period. They say my argument is not in good faith, which is an odd assertion to make. Their comment assumes a higher case count than reported, which while likely, is not an assumption I'm making because it's hard to discern whether there is also therefore uncounted mortality.
    - nradov 5y ago
      Case fatality rates are completely irrelevant. Most infected patients are never tested and thus never officially counted as a "case". Everyone is aware of that now, so if you're still citing CFR numbers then you're obviously acting in bad faith.
- morsch 5y ago
  Delta has a mortality rate of 3+% by the most charitable takes. What's your reference for that?
- colordrops 5y ago
  Even if this 3% number was accurate, which it's not, the most vulnerable group of people typically do not have school age children.
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]

_aavaa_ 5y ago

> 3. Covid is not a one and done. You get it, and it can have long term lasting effects even if it doesn't kill you. That applies to children as well. > 3. Please present evidence of long term effect in a non-negligible percentage of children > There is no long term data either way anywhere because we have to live through it first. If we don’t have long term data one way or the other, why is the starting assumption that children will experience long Covid to the same extent and same severity as adults (especially given that they have much lower rates of getting a serious case of covid compared to adults)?

dagmx 5y ago
Because early results show that there are long term effects in children, we just don't know how bad, and we already know about long covid in adults. Long covid also doesn't require having very severe symptoms either. And again, children don't exist in a vacuum and can therefore cause long term issues in adults. This is about being cautious based on what we do know. And we do know it's a crippling societal risk that children are such a huge vector.

pdimitar 5y ago

> What do we do if their parents end up unable to work due to long term COVID or worse their parents die? What will my mother's friend's family do after their father, husband and sole provider died within 10 minutes of taking the vaccine, right there on the spot, on the vaccine queue? (Answer: the family almost got evicted by the way. And lived in poverty for 7-8 months before recovering.) Where do we draw the line, I ask?

dagmx 5y ago
Simple statistics show that the risk of dying by taking the vaccine is significantly lower than the risk of dying from covid. Someone having the vaccine also doesn't increase the risk of someone else dying. It's pretty simple.
- pdimitar 5y ago
  > Someone having the vaccine also doesn't increase the risk of someone else dying. It's pretty simple. This is a non-sequitur. I ask the reverse: how do I help society by vaccinating? Judging by the contemporary info out there -- I don't in any way or form. I don't reduce the spread and I won't reduce my symptoms because I got through it 3 times without realizing and only the first time was bad (and it was before the news of the pandemic even started so I couldn't have known; and there were no vaccines back then so I had no choice). Your reply is not helpful. > Simple statistics show that the risk of dying by taking the vaccine is significantly lower than the risk of dying from covid. So it's okay if people die of taking the vaccine but it's not okay if they die of Covid? Got it, thanks. "Smaller percent" is a very inhumane way of looking at it. You're counting lives as if they are rice grains. You should be ashamed of yourself. People still die, regardless of percents. It's IMO understandable that many elders in my country decide against the vaccine because in many of them it evokes a severe immune response that carries an actual risk of death on the same day. Do you just write them off with "they are a smaller percent than Covid deaths"? How humane of you. Your response is shockingly insensitive.
  - dagmx 5y ago
    You're clearly uninformed on vaccination issues and spreading FUD in the process. Trying to paint me as insensitive is a cute tactic to hide your ignorance. Vaccination helps reduce the risk of you catching the virus, spreading the virus, reduces the risk of hospitalization, reduces the risk of you taking medical resources from someone else. The risk of a "severe immune response that will cause death" is statistically MUCH lower than the risk of catching and dying from covid. Not accommodating your sealioning is the humane response.