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I believe that cryptocurrencies/web3 are in a bubble that's going to pop. So far the utility of these things is dominated by trading on speculative assets (read

I believe that cryptocurrencies/web3 are in a bubble that's going to pop. So far the utility of these things is dominated by trading on speculative assets (read: ponzi shit) and that's gonna crash at some point with a lot of normal people holding the cards. Doesn't seem good. Housing I don't know. At least in my area there's just no new constructions happening. Prices are absurd here because a lot of people have a lot of money and there isn't much supply going around. I know nothing about the stock market and how it works, it's just a machine to bet on things, and lots of companies have had outsized benefits from the pandemic so I guess it makes sense? Who knows Inflation? Who knows

ghaff 5y ago
Housing is also very local. The past decade or two have seen something of a reversal of white flight (and company flight) from a relative handful of cities by a fairly specific college-educated young demographic. And there's some evidence of a partial reversal of that trend during the pandemic. Of course, it's also quite normal in the US that as people marry, have kids, etc. that they move out to where they have more space and quiet. A question is whether young people will still want to move into cities or if we'll reach some new equilibrium where urban life is less valued again.
- dcolkitt 5y ago
  Housing is indeed local, but there's zero doubt that we've massively under built housing over the past decade. Every major market in the US has seen 15%+ housing price increases since the (already high) 2019 baseline.
ryanSrich 5y ago
Crypto is never in a bubble per se. It’s just market cycles. BTC returned to $3k after it hit $20k in 2017. Most coins from 2017 no longer exists. The same will happen this cycle. BTC and ETH will likely be around in 4 years, but DAOs, NFTs, Web3? All that shit will die. Its not even that these assets are artificially pumped. It’s real money, and it’s usually retail doing the pumping. Its just that crypto functions on attention. And when the public’s attention isn’t on crypto, everything dies. Probably because a lot of these projects have little to no actual value.
- jrochkind1 5y ago
  > Crypto is never in a bubble per se… Its just that crypto functions on attention. And when the public’s attention isn’t on crypto, everything dies. Probably because a lot of these projects have little to no actual value. That sounds like a bubble "per se" to me.
  - ryanSrich 5y ago
    Using the broadest of definitions sure. My point is that there’s nothing artificial about crypto. These are real people buying real assets from other real people. Not some banks hawking bullshit assets that are artificially rated by some corrupt pseudo government entities.
    - efdee 5y ago
      Want to buy some real tulips from real people? That's not the 'broadest of definitions' at all. That's just what a bubble is: real people buying real assets from real people at hyperinflated prices. As an aside, but not related to the matter at hand, what is the 'real asset' people are buying with crypto?
      - throwheartaway 5y ago
        I borrowed against my crypto for USD/USDC and used it to buy a MacBook and pay my tuition. The underlying coins appreciated and earned interest in addition to negative APR (this is all programmatic; the contract will give the best interest rate the market supports) on the loan itself, so I ended up paying back less than I put in. Keep in mind: I am not in any way rich and paying out of pocket or taking a loan would have strained both me and my parents.
        lumost 5y ago
        You could borrow against a house in '08 or against tulips in 1634. If it's the rising side of the market, you'll make a killing doing this. If it's the opposite side, then your collateral will vanish. Whether vanishing collateral matters to you depends a great deal on the nature of the debt you took out and what you spent the loan on.
chadcmulligan 5y ago
I've seen it said (on here) that crypto gives you a nice legal way to access the illegal drug market since much of the activity is from illegal activities. If this is true then crypto will probably keep going for some time.

ghaff 5y ago

Housing is also very local. The past decade or two have seen something of a reversal of white flight (and company flight) from a relative handful of cities by a fairly specific college-educated young demographic. And there's some evidence of a partial reversal of that trend during the pandemic. Of course, it's also quite normal in the US that as people marry, have kids, etc. that they move out to where they have more space and quiet. A question is whether young people will still want to move into cities or if we'll reach some new equilibrium where urban life is less valued again.

dcolkitt 5y ago
Housing is indeed local, but there's zero doubt that we've massively under built housing over the past decade. Every major market in the US has seen 15%+ housing price increases since the (already high) 2019 baseline.

ryanSrich 5y ago

Crypto is never in a bubble per se. It’s just market cycles. BTC returned to $3k after it hit $20k in 2017. Most coins from 2017 no longer exists. The same will happen this cycle. BTC and ETH will likely be around in 4 years, but DAOs, NFTs, Web3? All that shit will die. Its not even that these assets are artificially pumped. It’s real money, and it’s usually retail doing the pumping. Its just that crypto functions on attention. And when the public’s attention isn’t on crypto, everything dies. Probably because a lot of these projects have little to no actual value.

jrochkind1 5y ago
> Crypto is never in a bubble per se… Its just that crypto functions on attention. And when the public’s attention isn’t on crypto, everything dies. Probably because a lot of these projects have little to no actual value. That sounds like a bubble "per se" to me.
- ryanSrich 5y ago
  Using the broadest of definitions sure. My point is that there’s nothing artificial about crypto. These are real people buying real assets from other real people. Not some banks hawking bullshit assets that are artificially rated by some corrupt pseudo government entities.
  - efdee 5y ago
    Want to buy some real tulips from real people? That's not the 'broadest of definitions' at all. That's just what a bubble is: real people buying real assets from real people at hyperinflated prices. As an aside, but not related to the matter at hand, what is the 'real asset' people are buying with crypto?
    - throwheartaway 5y ago
      I borrowed against my crypto for USD/USDC and used it to buy a MacBook and pay my tuition. The underlying coins appreciated and earned interest in addition to negative APR (this is all programmatic; the contract will give the best interest rate the market supports) on the loan itself, so I ended up paying back less than I put in. Keep in mind: I am not in any way rich and paying out of pocket or taking a loan would have strained both me and my parents.
      - lumost 5y ago
        You could borrow against a house in '08 or against tulips in 1634. If it's the rising side of the market, you'll make a killing doing this. If it's the opposite side, then your collateral will vanish. Whether vanishing collateral matters to you depends a great deal on the nature of the debt you took out and what you spent the loan on.

chadcmulligan 5y ago

I've seen it said (on here) that crypto gives you a nice legal way to access the illegal drug market since much of the activity is from illegal activities. If this is true then crypto will probably keep going for some time.