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How many students that got sick are experiencing symptoms more severe than the common cold? It seems like the chaos is caused by the attempted solutions to covi

How many students that got sick are experiencing symptoms more severe than the common cold? It seems like the chaos is caused by the attempted solutions to covid and not the actual symptoms? Edit: 7 day rolling average of COVID cases according to https://www1.nyc.gov/ https://www1.nyc.gov/ is 32k cases per day with 38 deaths. So there is a 0.1% mortality rate.

beardedwizard 5y ago
You are failing to consider the spread to vulnerable populations where the symptoms are fatal. Omicron is not mild, people with vaccines have mild symptoms due to its efficacy. All these kids come home to families with parents and grandparents. They also have young siblings.
- Invictus0 5y ago
  I keep seeing this Boogeyman argument of "vulnerable populations". Vulnerable people are welcome to get vaccinated and isolate and take all the extra precautions they want for themselves; we're 2 years into the pandemic at this point and they should have figured out how to make it work by now. It's not a good argument for shutting schools because it's argument by hypothetical outlier.
  - cultofmetatron 5y ago
    [flagged]
    - chasd00 5y ago
      Well to be fair vulnerable populations are not the center of the universe either.
      - akomtu 5y ago
        Topologically, we are a sphere: its center is everywhere and its boundary is nowhere.
    - dude187 5y ago
      Everyone is the center of their own universe. It's time to stop putting up with infringements on our freedom, which we've had two years to show they do nothing anyways.
- _bohm 5y ago
  I encourage you to go compare the plots of cases and deaths in NYC over the past 3 weeks and reconsider this statement.
- mixedCase 5y ago
  The flu had the same property at different rates. What are the numbers you are expecting for people to start treating it like the flu?
  - mcguire 5y ago
    New York State Flu Tracker (https://nyshc.health.ny.gov/web/nyapd/new-york-state-flu-tracker https://nyshc.health.ny.gov/web/nyapd/new-york-state-flu-tra...): 5075 new cases this week (2227 in New York City).
    - mlindner 5y ago
      So we're down to 10x the flu, the previous poster's question still stands though.
- parkingrift 5y ago
  [flagged]
  - kaba0 5y ago
    Vulnerable population is like half of the population.
    - parkingrift 5y ago
      Same statement still applies. World must go on. We have vaccines now.
    - ryan93 5y ago
      The vaccine is free
    - Dma54rhs 5y ago
      Get vaccinated, lose weight. We're two years into pandemic and only fools haven't gotten the message.
      - ipaddr 5y ago
        [flagged]
        breakfastduck 5y ago
        [flagged]
        ipaddr 5y ago
  - pianoben 5y ago
    There is no vaccine for children under five. As long as we've got children in our lives, we all need to go out of our way to protect them - even those of us with masks and vaccines are getting Omicron.
- fourseventy 5y ago
  No I'm not. Look at the data. Where are all these supposed deaths?
  - denton-scratch 5y ago
    COVID deaths are recorded as "deaths within 28 days of a positive COVID test". Omicron has only been around since November, and only became huge in late December. Give people time to die.
- bagacrap 5y ago
  and ~everyone has had the opportunity to get a vaccine so...
- denton-scratch 5y ago
  > Omicron is not mild Anecdotally, I understand it can be pretty nasty - not "like a winter cold", more like bad 'flu (the anecdote relates to an antivaxx family).
  - bally0241 5y ago
    I just got it along with family (both vaxxed and unvaxxed, there was no noticeable difference in symptoms). It was somewhere between a 'common cold' and the flu. Not fun, but definitely not something to panic about (understandably everyone will have a different reaction depending on their current state of health). However, I think we've reached the point of diminishing returns on any sort of intervention (they've all failed). Masking is ineffective, lockdowns and social-distancing are ineffective, and the vaccines are ineffective (at least w.r.t. to preventing transmission). We can continue to tear society apart aiming for a 0% safe zero-covid society (which we will never achieve), or get on with our lives and live with the risk.
    - spookthesunset 5y ago
      It’s a shame this is downvoted because you are completely right. Covid ain’t going anywhere. Society needs to move on.
    - rhinoceraptor 5y ago
      All the interventions we've done have been too-little, too-late. Telling people they're safe with a cloth mask when the virus transmits via airborne respiratory particles is obviously insane. We should have used war time powers to mass produce N95s and rapid tests, and mailed them to everyone with instructions on fit-testing.
    - unyttigfjelltol 5y ago
      >vaccines are ineffective (at least w.r.t. to preventing transmission). From where I sit, anecdotally, vaccines have been highly effective. The messaging around them is weak. The choice and recentness of vaccines and boosters is having a big impact on severity of infection, and there's a world of difference between an asymptomatic never-tested-positive exposure and a 3-day flu. The CDC has a problem in their marketing department that has generated so much confusion.
- StanislavPetrov 5y ago
  >You are failing to consider the spread to vulnerable populations where the symptoms are fatal. In New York Cuomo killed many of these people early on.
gpm 5y ago
Your link doesn't lead to any data, I'm assuming you meant to link to something like this instead: https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page#daily https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page#daily Of course that says 44 deaths in the latest 7 day rolling average, not 38, and it loudly warns "Data from the most recent days are incomplete.", so presumably you meant to link to some other page... Your interpretation of the data is also just flat out wrong. You can't divide cases from today by deaths from today and get a case mortality rate, because deaths lag cases very significantly (2-8 weeks was a number studies were showing early on, not sure if there's a more accurate one since). A month prior to the latest day with a deaths number (01/04) the 7 day rolling average of cases in NYC was 2404 (data from my link above). That's also an inappropriate number to use, given that the recent giant spike in cases means that a disproportionate number of deaths will be from relatively recent cases, but it serves to demonstrate the point about your derivation being completely inappropriate. A 0.1% mortality rate is also really bad if you're talking about students, but we're not, the data your citing is for the entire population... for the entire population it's just bad.
- fourseventy 5y ago
  Ok. this is from wsj.com "Omicron mortality is likely around 0.2%, roughly in line with seasonal flu." https://www.wsj.com/articles/omicron-variant-may-end-up-saving-lives-infection-antibodies-spread-sick-covid-19-coronavirus-hospitalization-death-vaccine-11641153969 https://www.wsj.com/articles/omicron-variant-may-end-up-savi... Pretty close to my back of the napkin calculations.
  - odonnellryan 5y ago
    Way more people will get omicron than the flu.
  - gpm 5y ago
    I have no real problems with imagining that omicron's IFR is around that, it's a reasonable number. I just have severe problems with the way you reached it, it's pure coincidence that you reached something likely in the right order of magnitude. Your article is in the opinion section, not written by any sort of doctor but some sort sort of investor (and incidentally substantial republican donor), that's not a source I would take seriously... Author's wikipedia page: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_D._Arnott https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_D._Arnott
jimbob45 5y ago
I think the fear was that teachers would get the virus and then have to duck out. Even worse, many of the sub teachers we had in school were semi-retired teachers who would be even more vulnerable. You could make a case for putting up a plexiglass wall between students and teachers just to end this headache and I think you wouldn’t find as much opposition now as you would have in 2020. That said, some kids have to be physically restrained/handled and you can’t very well do that behind plexiglass.
- jeromegv 5y ago
  Virus is airborne. Plexiglass does nothing at all.
christkv 5y ago
The current data from the UK shows a mortality of 0.15% for Omicron. However the data is from daily mail so take it with huge pinch of salt. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10372285/Covid-19-UK-Experts-say-Omicron-best-thing-pandemic-data-deaths-dropped-6-NYE.html https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10372285/Covid-19-U...
PragmaticPulp 5y ago
Most of the problems in the post are because the teachers are sick. The kids are going to school. Teachers are out sick. Unless you have an infinite supply of teachers, it’s hard to keep schools running normally during a COVID outbreak.
wonnage 5y ago
The teachers are out sick. The workload falls on the remaining teachers because there are no subs. The job was already shitty and even worse now. Teachers quit. Public school has stricter credentialing requirements than private school so it’s hard to replace them, particularly in the middle of a school year. Doesn’t matter how sick the kids are getting or not getting when there is literally no one to run the school. Some of these problems can’t even be solved with funding. People just don’t want to be teachers, it’s a low-status profession in the US. Who’s going to go through a teaching program and a multi-year certification process for the privilege of working a job everyone shits on, when you could just go to a coding bootcamp? Same goes for the medical profession. Everyone is quitting and the shambles we’re left with produces a lot of vindictive rhetoric towards the remaining doctors and nurses who haven’t quit, yet.

beardedwizard 5y ago

You are failing to consider the spread to vulnerable populations where the symptoms are fatal. Omicron is not mild, people with vaccines have mild symptoms due to its efficacy. All these kids come home to families with parents and grandparents. They also have young siblings.

Invictus0 5y ago
I keep seeing this Boogeyman argument of "vulnerable populations". Vulnerable people are welcome to get vaccinated and isolate and take all the extra precautions they want for themselves; we're 2 years into the pandemic at this point and they should have figured out how to make it work by now. It's not a good argument for shutting schools because it's argument by hypothetical outlier.
- cultofmetatron 5y ago
  [flagged]
  - chasd00 5y ago
    Well to be fair vulnerable populations are not the center of the universe either.
    - akomtu 5y ago
      Topologically, we are a sphere: its center is everywhere and its boundary is nowhere.
  - dude187 5y ago
    Everyone is the center of their own universe. It's time to stop putting up with infringements on our freedom, which we've had two years to show they do nothing anyways.
_bohm 5y ago
I encourage you to go compare the plots of cases and deaths in NYC over the past 3 weeks and reconsider this statement.
mixedCase 5y ago
The flu had the same property at different rates. What are the numbers you are expecting for people to start treating it like the flu?
- mcguire 5y ago
  New York State Flu Tracker (https://nyshc.health.ny.gov/web/nyapd/new-york-state-flu-tracker https://nyshc.health.ny.gov/web/nyapd/new-york-state-flu-tra...): 5075 new cases this week (2227 in New York City).
  - mlindner 5y ago
    So we're down to 10x the flu, the previous poster's question still stands though.
parkingrift 5y ago
[flagged]
- kaba0 5y ago
  Vulnerable population is like half of the population.
  - parkingrift 5y ago
    Same statement still applies. World must go on. We have vaccines now.
  - ryan93 5y ago
    The vaccine is free
  - Dma54rhs 5y ago
    Get vaccinated, lose weight. We're two years into pandemic and only fools haven't gotten the message.
    - ipaddr 5y ago
      [flagged]
      - breakfastduck 5y ago
        [flagged]
        ipaddr 5y ago
- pianoben 5y ago
  There is no vaccine for children under five. As long as we've got children in our lives, we all need to go out of our way to protect them - even those of us with masks and vaccines are getting Omicron.
fourseventy 5y ago
No I'm not. Look at the data. Where are all these supposed deaths?
- denton-scratch 5y ago
  COVID deaths are recorded as "deaths within 28 days of a positive COVID test". Omicron has only been around since November, and only became huge in late December. Give people time to die.
bagacrap 5y ago
and ~everyone has had the opportunity to get a vaccine so...
denton-scratch 5y ago
> Omicron is not mild Anecdotally, I understand it can be pretty nasty - not "like a winter cold", more like bad 'flu (the anecdote relates to an antivaxx family).
- bally0241 5y ago
  I just got it along with family (both vaxxed and unvaxxed, there was no noticeable difference in symptoms). It was somewhere between a 'common cold' and the flu. Not fun, but definitely not something to panic about (understandably everyone will have a different reaction depending on their current state of health). However, I think we've reached the point of diminishing returns on any sort of intervention (they've all failed). Masking is ineffective, lockdowns and social-distancing are ineffective, and the vaccines are ineffective (at least w.r.t. to preventing transmission). We can continue to tear society apart aiming for a 0% safe zero-covid society (which we will never achieve), or get on with our lives and live with the risk.
  - spookthesunset 5y ago
    It’s a shame this is downvoted because you are completely right. Covid ain’t going anywhere. Society needs to move on.
  - rhinoceraptor 5y ago
    All the interventions we've done have been too-little, too-late. Telling people they're safe with a cloth mask when the virus transmits via airborne respiratory particles is obviously insane. We should have used war time powers to mass produce N95s and rapid tests, and mailed them to everyone with instructions on fit-testing.
  - unyttigfjelltol 5y ago
    >vaccines are ineffective (at least w.r.t. to preventing transmission). From where I sit, anecdotally, vaccines have been highly effective. The messaging around them is weak. The choice and recentness of vaccines and boosters is having a big impact on severity of infection, and there's a world of difference between an asymptomatic never-tested-positive exposure and a 3-day flu. The CDC has a problem in their marketing department that has generated so much confusion.
StanislavPetrov 5y ago
>You are failing to consider the spread to vulnerable populations where the symptoms are fatal. In New York Cuomo killed many of these people early on.

gpm 5y ago

Your link doesn't lead to any data, I'm assuming you meant to link to something like this instead: https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page#daily https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page#daily Of course that says 44 deaths in the latest 7 day rolling average, not 38, and it loudly warns "Data from the most recent days are incomplete.", so presumably you meant to link to some other page... Your interpretation of the data is also just flat out wrong. You can't divide cases from today by deaths from today and get a case mortality rate, because deaths lag cases very significantly (2-8 weeks was a number studies were showing early on, not sure if there's a more accurate one since). A month prior to the latest day with a deaths number (01/04) the 7 day rolling average of cases in NYC was 2404 (data from my link above). That's also an inappropriate number to use, given that the recent giant spike in cases means that a disproportionate number of deaths will be from relatively recent cases, but it serves to demonstrate the point about your derivation being completely inappropriate. A 0.1% mortality rate is also really bad if you're talking about students, but we're not, the data your citing is for the entire population... for the entire population it's just bad.

fourseventy 5y ago
Ok. this is from wsj.com "Omicron mortality is likely around 0.2%, roughly in line with seasonal flu." https://www.wsj.com/articles/omicron-variant-may-end-up-saving-lives-infection-antibodies-spread-sick-covid-19-coronavirus-hospitalization-death-vaccine-11641153969 https://www.wsj.com/articles/omicron-variant-may-end-up-savi... Pretty close to my back of the napkin calculations.
- odonnellryan 5y ago
  Way more people will get omicron than the flu.
- gpm 5y ago
  I have no real problems with imagining that omicron's IFR is around that, it's a reasonable number. I just have severe problems with the way you reached it, it's pure coincidence that you reached something likely in the right order of magnitude. Your article is in the opinion section, not written by any sort of doctor but some sort sort of investor (and incidentally substantial republican donor), that's not a source I would take seriously... Author's wikipedia page: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_D._Arnott https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_D._Arnott

jimbob45 5y ago

I think the fear was that teachers would get the virus and then have to duck out. Even worse, many of the sub teachers we had in school were semi-retired teachers who would be even more vulnerable. You could make a case for putting up a plexiglass wall between students and teachers just to end this headache and I think you wouldn’t find as much opposition now as you would have in 2020. That said, some kids have to be physically restrained/handled and you can’t very well do that behind plexiglass.

jeromegv 5y ago
Virus is airborne. Plexiglass does nothing at all.

christkv 5y ago

The current data from the UK shows a mortality of 0.15% for Omicron. However the data is from daily mail so take it with huge pinch of salt. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10372285/Covid-19-UK-Experts-say-Omicron-best-thing-pandemic-data-deaths-dropped-6-NYE.html https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10372285/Covid-19-U...

PragmaticPulp 5y ago

Most of the problems in the post are because the teachers are sick. The kids are going to school. Teachers are out sick. Unless you have an infinite supply of teachers, it’s hard to keep schools running normally during a COVID outbreak.

wonnage 5y ago

The teachers are out sick. The workload falls on the remaining teachers because there are no subs. The job was already shitty and even worse now. Teachers quit. Public school has stricter credentialing requirements than private school so it’s hard to replace them, particularly in the middle of a school year. Doesn’t matter how sick the kids are getting or not getting when there is literally no one to run the school. Some of these problems can’t even be solved with funding. People just don’t want to be teachers, it’s a low-status profession in the US. Who’s going to go through a teaching program and a multi-year certification process for the privilege of working a job everyone shits on, when you could just go to a coding bootcamp? Same goes for the medical profession. Everyone is quitting and the shambles we’re left with produces a lot of vindictive rhetoric towards the remaining doctors and nurses who haven’t quit, yet.