7 ms·

Looking at housing availability hard to believe there is an actual net outflow from CA

by qaq 5y ago

Guest42 5y ago
Agreed, the numbers indicate a pretty significant exodus although it seems as though the supply has decreased and the pricing has increased on both rentals and homes for sale. Mathematically, the extent to which it happens and the duration don’t make much sense to me.
- coding123 5y ago
  Rich FANG employees don't sell their bay area homes, they are just buying a second (and third) one to have their remote job location outside of the bay area. (Anecdata only- family members not me personally)
thatfrenchguy 5y ago
Everyone wants to leave, that’s why houses sell for 2-3m$ clearly
- thrill 5y ago
  Just because the queue to get into the theater is getting shorter doesn't mean the ticket prices for the limited number of seats will start decreasing.
after_care 5y ago
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/07/us/california-population-loss.html https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/07/us/california-population-... CA lost population in 2020.
john_moscow 5y ago
There's an outflow of people willing to produce value, and an inflow of people ready to consume it. It will work just great until suddenly there's not that many value left to feed all the hungry mouths. And then the mouths will take pitchforks and go raid the nearby granary because that's where they think the food is. Only to find it empty because the people willing to actually produce food left long time ago. USSR has learned this lesson 100 years ago and paid dearly for it. I wish people could learn from the past mistakes rather than repeating them on their own...
- scollet 5y ago
  People inherently produce value though. You're going to have to get pretty specific because I can't imagine those people leaving are taking anything vital away from those who stayed.
- mr_overalls 5y ago
  The United States is still the only country in the developed world without a system of universal healthcare. Breathlessly comparing the USSR's economic policies with the raising of taxes to cover such a fundamental service betrays a staggering ignorance of economics and history.
  - john_moscow 5y ago
    Oh, I happened to live on both sides of the globe and have a fairly sound explanation. Europeans (that have the only universal healthcare system of comparable quality) have a concept of doing your duty. It's when a tool manufacturer won't deliberately put shittier wiring to make the motor fail short after the warranty expires. It's when a dentist won't claim you have 3 extra holes and then keep pretend-drilling your teeth for 30 minutes and bill you for it. It's when an advisor will actually try to find a solution fitting you the most (as opposed to the one paying the highest commission). U.S. culture is different. Like it or not, it's about making a quick buck and hopefully not ending up in prison. That's great for startups and high-risk ventures, but it will never work with setups when you just assume people to do their job well and not try to stiff you in some way. Russian culture is very similar, so when USSR implemented centralized planning, people resorted to just stealing what they could. Like literally, your way to get some meat for the lunch would be to know the guy that works on a sausage factory, who would steal a piece for you in exchange for some vodka your cousin stole from the distillery. This eroded the trust between people to the point where you cannot start most types of business because your employees will randomly steal shit from you no matter how much you pay them. Hence, high petty crime. Hence, endless feuds between neighbors. You have no idea how low the ship can sink without people realizing that something is wrong. What always worked in the entrepreneurial cultures like the American one is set proper incentives. Simple, transparent rules that people would agree upon, and let them compete with each other. If you have 10 dental practices, and 2 of them charge you for the holes you don't have, the customers will move to the remaining 8. If a hospital starts charging unreasonable fees to feed extra levels of bureaucracy, a bunch of pissed off MDs will open a competing one. But we are not doing that. We have low interest rates that allow established players to scoop up competition with cheap debt. We have complex bureaucratic systems that make opening a new hospital without a 8-figure investment virtually impossible, and then we wonder why people's entrepreneurial energy gets directed towards creative billing rather than actually delivering value.

Looking at housing availability hard to believe there is an actual net outflow from CA

by qaq 5y ago

Looking at housing availability hard to believe there is an actual net outflow from CA

Agreed, the numbers indicate a pretty significant exodus although it seems as though the supply has decreased and the pricing has increased on both rentals and homes for sale. Mathematically, the extent to which it happens and the duration don’t make much sense to me.

coding123 5y ago
Rich FANG employees don't sell their bay area homes, they are just buying a second (and third) one to have their remote job location outside of the bay area. (Anecdata only- family members not me personally)

thatfrenchguy 5y ago

Everyone wants to leave, that’s why houses sell for 2-3m$ clearly

thrill 5y ago
Just because the queue to get into the theater is getting shorter doesn't mean the ticket prices for the limited number of seats will start decreasing.

after_care 5y ago

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/07/us/california-population-loss.html https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/07/us/california-population-... CA lost population in 2020.

john_moscow 5y ago

There's an outflow of people willing to produce value, and an inflow of people ready to consume it. It will work just great until suddenly there's not that many value left to feed all the hungry mouths. And then the mouths will take pitchforks and go raid the nearby granary because that's where they think the food is. Only to find it empty because the people willing to actually produce food left long time ago. USSR has learned this lesson 100 years ago and paid dearly for it. I wish people could learn from the past mistakes rather than repeating them on their own...

scollet 5y ago
People inherently produce value though. You're going to have to get pretty specific because I can't imagine those people leaving are taking anything vital away from those who stayed.
mr_overalls 5y ago
The United States is still the only country in the developed world without a system of universal healthcare. Breathlessly comparing the USSR's economic policies with the raising of taxes to cover such a fundamental service betrays a staggering ignorance of economics and history.
- john_moscow 5y ago
  Oh, I happened to live on both sides of the globe and have a fairly sound explanation. Europeans (that have the only universal healthcare system of comparable quality) have a concept of doing your duty. It's when a tool manufacturer won't deliberately put shittier wiring to make the motor fail short after the warranty expires. It's when a dentist won't claim you have 3 extra holes and then keep pretend-drilling your teeth for 30 minutes and bill you for it. It's when an advisor will actually try to find a solution fitting you the most (as opposed to the one paying the highest commission). U.S. culture is different. Like it or not, it's about making a quick buck and hopefully not ending up in prison. That's great for startups and high-risk ventures, but it will never work with setups when you just assume people to do their job well and not try to stiff you in some way. Russian culture is very similar, so when USSR implemented centralized planning, people resorted to just stealing what they could. Like literally, your way to get some meat for the lunch would be to know the guy that works on a sausage factory, who would steal a piece for you in exchange for some vodka your cousin stole from the distillery. This eroded the trust between people to the point where you cannot start most types of business because your employees will randomly steal shit from you no matter how much you pay them. Hence, high petty crime. Hence, endless feuds between neighbors. You have no idea how low the ship can sink without people realizing that something is wrong. What always worked in the entrepreneurial cultures like the American one is set proper incentives. Simple, transparent rules that people would agree upon, and let them compete with each other. If you have 10 dental practices, and 2 of them charge you for the holes you don't have, the customers will move to the remaining 8. If a hospital starts charging unreasonable fees to feed extra levels of bureaucracy, a bunch of pissed off MDs will open a competing one. But we are not doing that. We have low interest rates that allow established players to scoop up competition with cheap debt. We have complex bureaucratic systems that make opening a new hospital without a 8-figure investment virtually impossible, and then we wonder why people's entrepreneurial energy gets directed towards creative billing rather than actually delivering value.