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Forget diesel trucks and piss, ya’ll are overlooking that urea is a major component of fertilizer. Higher urea prices->higher fertilizer prices->Less fertilize
by oxymoran 5y ago
Forget diesel trucks and piss, ya’ll are overlooking that urea is a major component of fertilizer.
Higher urea prices->higher fertilizer prices->Less fertilizer demand->less food supply->more suffering via sick and hungry people->more potential for confrontation and war.
- okl 5y agoSame with CO2 -> https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/sep/22/why-is-the-uk-bailing-out-us-co2-supplier-cf-industries https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/sep/22/why-is-the-... https://www.bbc.com/news/explainers-58626935 https://www.bbc.com/news/explainers-58626935
- lettergram 5y agoCO2 also helps plants grow. We should increase the atmospheres CO2 and urea production. More food for all!
- beaconstudios 5y agothere's really more than enough CO2 in the atmosphere right now. The plants aren't struggling for it.
- mrfusion 5y agoCan you point to any research showing what the optimum level of co2 should be for plant growth?
- beaconstudios 5y agoCan you? You're presumably the one arguing, in the face of the majority of climate scientists, that more CO2 is actually a good thing. For what it's worth, no gardener or farmer is having to pump CO2 into the air because their plants are dying.
- mrfusion 5y agoYour claim was “plants aren’t struggling for it” I’m asking if you can back up that claim. I guess not.
- beaconstudios 5y agoStruggling as in dying. I've seen no evidence that plants are dying of lack of CO2. In my research into permaculture I've never seen any issues with plants lacking CO2 - primarily plants struggle for nitrogen, hence the use of fertiliser (or in the case of permaculture, other nitrogen fixing techniques like using bacteria or cycling legumes, or cool stuff like using aquaponics to recycle fish poo into fertiliser). Maybe they could grow even more successfully with some kind of CO2 biodome, I don't know - but my point was that lack of CO2 is not causing problems with plants growing, but it is causing problems with our biosphere slowly dying.
- kragen 5y agoIt depends on the plant. Most plants grow faster at higher levels than the current 400ppm, so CO₂ supplementation in greenhouses is a thing, which you can read about if you like. Some plants grow fastest at levels around 1000ppm, and I think for others it's closer to 10'000 ppm, at which level it starts to become toxic for the humans. Of course if Earth's atmosphere were 10'000 ppm CO₂ we would see mass extinctions, major ocean acidification, etc.
- renewiltord 5y agoWater helps people live. We should all be constantly drinking water. We will be so much more alive. Every living moment: drinking water.
- dane-pgp 5y agoIndeed. To be even more ridiculous: Being too cold kills people, therefore we should set ourselves on fire so we live forever. If someone wants to argue "more CO2 is good for plants", they really need to provide a number for what atmospheric concentration they think is optimal, and what the costs/benefits of reaching it are. Would increasing the concentration by 10% make food 10% cheaper, for example? What sort of effects on the Earth's climate are historically associated with CO2 levels that high?
- hypertele-Xii 5y agoThat's not ridiculous, that's literally ancient history ongoing. Those early human tribes that managed to keep a fire going forever are us, today. Still living theoretically forever, as long as the water and fire (and the amazing combination thereof, hot water) keep on going.
- xibalba 5y agoWouldn't a 270% increase indicate a huge demand spike?
- conjectures 5y agoDepends what the cause is.
- colechristensen 5y agoNo it’s a supply side problem, urea is synthesized from ammonia which is synthesized from methane and atmospheric nitrogen. Methane and in general fossil fuel prices spiked and brought fertilizer prices with it. There is probably also a covid labor component as well. The family farm is planting a lot less corn as a result.
- fullstop 5y agoIf I remember correctly, sheep urine used to be used to clean particulate traps in large diesel engines. I'm not sure why things moved to synthetic, but if it was for cost reasons then sheep urine may be more cost effective than it used to be.
- iancmceachern 5y agoIt was never from urine. It was always chemically synthesized
- fullstop 5y agoI work with the bus industry, so this sort of stuff is on my periphery. This is what I was thinking of: https://www.theguardian.com/news/2005/jun/10/transportintheuk.environment https://www.theguardian.com/news/2005/jun/10/transportintheu...
- short12 5y agoThe family farm is a thing of the past. They are called hobby farms
- motohagiography 5y agoIf the prices are denominated in USD, and the consumers are in countries with stronger (less elastic) currencies, it's likely caused by inflation pressure from obvious sources like QE-infinity policy, debt monetization, and de-facto negative interest rates. What we are watching is the controlled demolition of western economies. It's not a conspiracy, it's an ideology that has prevailed and this is all downstream of it. I hope you like eating bugs.
- fennecfoxen 5y ago> If the prices are denominated in USD, and the consumers are in countries with stronger (less elastic) currencies Well, that's not what's going on in the market. This crisis is caused by a reduced supply of inputs, mostly natural gas and energy. One of the direct causes is Hurricane Ida, which had a massive impact on natural gas supplies. China has also experienced a coal shortage, and also a drought that reduced hydropower generation. Europe has done a lot to switch to renewables, but they've suffered low winds. So no, the people who are going to hurt aren't rich Westerners, who are best positioned to ride this out. It's the poor people (mostly in the "global south") who already spend massive portions of their income on food, who will bear the brunt of this crisis.
- shkkmo 5y agoWhich will probably mean we are headed into another round of popular uprisings. Lots of hungry people inevitably leads to lots is political instability.
- piva00 5y agoReading about this and considering the current price shock and inflation in Brazil makes me worried. Right now, even before this fertiliser crisis materialises, there's already been a sizeable increase in food prices there, the pandemic pushed a new wave of homelessness and food insecurity after already some bad years before Bolsonaro came to power. Coupled with higher unemployment and overall loss of competitivity of Brazilian industry there just seems nowhere to go for society... If there is another food price hike it'll very likely cause massive social strife, I really don't see a way out if this crisis materialises in next year or so. It will be brutal for the global south.
- fennecfoxen 5y ago> urea is a major component of fertilizer Oh yes. And alarm bells are ringing. "I want to say this loud and clear right now, that we risk a very low crop in the next harvest. I'm afraid we're going to have a food crisis." — Svein Tore Holsether, CEO and president Yara International. https://fortune.com/2021/11/04/energy-crisis-food-shortage-security-fertilizer-prices-yara-ceo-madagascar-cop26/ https://fortune.com/2021/11/04/energy-crisis-food-shortage-s... "Major fertilizer producers Yara International ASA and CF Industries Holdings Inc. said soaring energy costs are forcing them to halt some output of nutrients crucial for growing crops." https://www.bloombergquint.com/business/europe-s-energy-woes-hit-fertilizers-in-another-threat-to-food https://www.bloombergquint.com/business/europe-s-energy-woes... "In the fall, soaring electricity demand led the southwestern province of Yunnan, a key phosphate producer, to order drastic production cuts by energy-hungry industries, including fertilizer." https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/06/business/urea-fertilizer-food-prices.html https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/06/business/urea-fertilizer-... "Farmers in India are desperate. Trucks in South Korea had to be idled. Food prices, already high, could rise even further." https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/06/business/urea-fertilizer-food-prices.html https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/06/business/urea-fertilizer-... "Among farmers and ranchers, very few topics are being discussed as much as the skyrocketing cost of fertilizer and increasing concerns regarding availability." https://www.fb.org/market-intel/too-many-to-count-factors-driving-fertilizer-prices-higher-and-higher https://www.fb.org/market-intel/too-many-to-count-factors-dr... "High fertilizer prices could exert inflationary pressures on food prices, compounding food security concerns at a time when the COVID-19 pandemic and climate change are making access to food more difficult." https://blogs.worldbank.org/opendata/soaring-fertilizer-prices-add-inflationary-pressures-and-food-security-concerns https://blogs.worldbank.org/opendata/soaring-fertilizer-pric... "Higher farm input costs, expensive shipping and good demand provide for a grim combination... We are under La Niña conditions, the second such event in as many years, and the weather cannot be expected to be normal until Q2 2022 at the earliest." — Rabobank Outlook 2022: Hell in the Handbasket. https://research.rabobank.com/far/en/documents/842941_Rabobank_ACMR-Outlook-2022.pdf https://research.rabobank.com/far/en/documents/842941_Raboba... Hell in the handbasket here we come!
- JohnJamesRambo 5y agoThis is why I don’t buy the Bitcoin “mined with free energy” narrative. Put a fertilizer plant near that hydro dam instead of doing proof of work calculations. Ethereum 2.0 (uses proof of stake- doesn’t do energy intensive mining) can’t come soon enough for me.
- beambot 5y agoRelated article from yesterday that specifically calls out urea: "Global farmers facing fertiliser sticker shock may cut use, raising food security risks" https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/global-farmers-facing-fertiliser-sticker-shock-may-cut-use-raising-food-security-2021-12-09/ https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/global-farmers-f...
- CuriouslyC 5y agoTime for lazy/ignorant farmers to switch to cover cropping with rotational grazing, which is just a better system as long as you're not financially dependent on planting your entire acreage every growing season.
- pddpro 5y agoI think that you shouldn't call other profession lazy/ignorant in general. People only tend to maximize their profits and minimize efforts, and this is natural. This, in no way, means that farmers are lazy and certainly not ignorant. A better rephrasing would be: "Time for farmers to switch ..."
- CuriouslyC 5y agoNews flash: I'm not talking about all farmers, I'm specifically talking about farmers who are either lazy or ignorant. Rotational grazing with cover crops is vastly superior to running fields constantly by juicing them with fertilizer and tilling. It does require knowledge, however, and the will to move livestock around regularly, which a lot of bad farmers lack.
- cal5k 5y agoIt's common for one farmer to plant and harvest thousands of acres pretty much by himself, at least in North America. Labour, particularly up in Canada, is often in short supply which makes moving livestock around impractical - and not all of them even keep livestock, because it's not profitable unless you're keeping thousands of head.
- CuriouslyC 5y agoThe conventional ag model where you have one farmer monocropping a thousand acres are the reason the #1 thing most farmers grow is debt. That requires expensive specialized equipment, and much heavier application of pesticides and fertilizers than a balanced system, so both your fixed and variable costs are high. If you want to see a profitable, productive mid sized farm, check out Polyface. Joel makes a good living while treating his land and animals well.
- eloff 5y agoThis is probably a question easily solved by querying Wikipedia, but I'll ask it here so the answer benefits others as well, where does the urea used in fertilizer come from?
- fennecfoxen 5y agoThe usual chain is natural gas -> ammonia -> urea. Thus, one of the key factors influencing the supply is Hurricane Ida, which led to remarkably long shutdowns in natural gas production. https://www.eia.gov/naturalgas/weekly/archivenew_ngwu/2021/10_28/ https://www.eia.gov/naturalgas/weekly/archivenew_ngwu/2021/1...
- selectodude 5y agoAmmonia (made from natural gas) and carbon dioxide.
- lcam84 5y agoUrea comes from the Harber process [1] Basically most of food fertilizer depends on fossil fuels. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Haber_process https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Haber_process
- deleted 5y ago[deleted]
- ren_engineer 5y agothankfully the WEF has the solution, the plebes will just have to get used to eating bugs for their protein https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2021/07/why-we-need-to-give-insects-the-role-they-deserve-in-our-food-systems/ https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2021/07/why-we-need-to-give-i... Thesis -> Antithesis -> Synthesis
- nefitty 5y agoPeople eat shrimp and crab and lobster. Bugs are arthropods as well. They seem to perform similar functions in different contexts, eg, they feed on the waste of other animals. The difference is historical and cultural inertia. Buttered cockroach could be the next big thing in Brooklyn.
- kragen 5y agoCockroaches smell terrible, but I suppose Stilton does too.
- _abox 5y agoThese are the guys that want us all to rent our stuff instead of buying it. "You will own nothing and you will be happy". Uh no. I'm not going to buy bug burgers nor rent my stuff. What we should do is more population control. As a first step stop incentives for having children (Inn the Netherlands you get more child benefit per child the more you have!). It's tough for the people that want big families but we can't continue growing humanity like this.
- arbitrary_name 5y agoEver eaten shrimp or crab?
- GekkePrutser 5y agoNo I don't like seafood.
- dane-pgp 5y ago
- SavantIdiot 5y agoAfter watching people lose their minds over toilet paper, this is not going to be pretty.
- tastyfreeze 5y agoIndeed. Lack of food is, historically, the fastest way to revolution and war.