6 ms·

Kazakhstan unrest: Troops ordered to fire without warning

44 points by underscore_ku 5y ago

Threeve303 5y ago
Curious how this unrest can happen, like a switch was flipped, given the circumstances on the other Russian border country with Ukraine. Coincidental timing if nothing else, right?
- q1w2 5y ago
  When global gas prices rose this year, a black market emerged in Kazakhstan to smuggle out gov't subsidized gas to neighboring Kyrgystan and China (sold at triple the price). As the price of global gas went up, this black market became more profitable, more organized, and more controlled by organized crime. Remember also that Kazakhstan's largest city (and former capital in 2019), Almaty, is located by the Southern border. In an effort to curb this black market, the domestic price of gas raised much closer to the global market rate. Not surprisingly, the unrest was most violent and most well organized in Almaty. There is also an undercurrent of ethnic conflict between the ethnic Kazakh people and the ethnic Russia population. The former government has been working to switch from the Cyrillic alphabet to the Latin one, sending out language police to ensure businesses don't do business in Russian, and probably most importantly, talking to the US to establish US air bases.
  - somedude895 5y ago
    > working to switch from the Cyrillic alphabet to the Latin one > talking to the US to establish US air bases I haven't read about this anywhere, but it sounds highly important considering Russia just sent in their troops. Do you have sources for these two claims?
    - Jon_Lowtek 5y ago
      Don't overvalue correlation. Kazhakstan has old contracts with Russia about (military) riot police support (called Collective Security Treaty Organisation) they are neighbors which has a logistical benefit and many Kazhaks speak russian, allowing a limited amount of communication, compared to, lets say, the french foreign legion (think: announcing surrender, asking for medical help, civilians that are not rioting). Lastly calling in foreign mercenaries to squelch unrest is a very old tactic as they are less likely to switch sides.
    - Jon_Lowtek 5y ago
      Concerning the alphabet here is a source: https://www.dw.com/en/kazakhstan-to-change-from-cyrillic-to-latin-alphabet/a-41147396 https://www.dw.com/en/kazakhstan-to-change-from-cyrillic-to-... DW is german state media reporting in english and it seems to at least mention most aspects from lingo-nationalism to computer keyboards and similar switches in the region. A newer source is https://astanatimes.com/2021/02/kazakhstan-presents-new-latin-alphabet-plans-gradual-transition-through-2031/ https://astanatimes.com/2021/02/kazakhstan-presents-new-lati... which focuses on how it is going. Note that Kazakhstan is not planning to use the most simple form of the Latin alphabet but relies on using umlauts, breves and cedillas to highlight different sounds used in spoken Kazakh. You can find more details in in https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kazakh_alphabets https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kazakh_alphabets
- tyingq 5y ago
  They lifted price caps on liquified petroleum gas on January 1st. It is used for heating, cooking, hot water, and most cars there run on LPG. Prices doubled overnight. Other reasons for unrest, but that was the switch flip / last straw.
- relativ575 5y ago
  A switch was flipped? Did you forget about 30 years of dictatorship, nepotism and corruption? If a dam collapses, do you also think it happens by some sort of switch? Also, I find it amusing that the West is always mentioned as potential factor, yet the bigger picture is rarely mentioned: Kazakhstan is a resource rich country with low population, sandwiched between two countries with huge ambition. China has much stake in Kazakhstan as any other countries, and probably more.
rad_gruchalski 5y ago
Amazing. Polish news also reports titles like this but they at least mention in the text “shoot without warning at any armed person who does not step down”. Why is BBC report missing this part of info?
- schleck8 5y ago
  The order was to shoot and kill 'terrorists', which in the regime's words is anyone stepping outside to protest who doesn't surrender immediately. Edit: Quoting the president according to a top comment on r/europe > “Negotiations are nonsense stupidity, these protesters are criminals, terrorists with foreign backup”
  - sedan_baklazhan 5y ago
    That is a direct lie. It is said about anybody wearing arms and refusing to surrender. There are really peaceful protests proceeding in some areas w/o any issues.
- a0-prw 5y ago
  Because the BBC is a propaganda organ for the UK.
  - schleck8 5y ago
    Weird, because Al Jazeera phrased it identically. Also a propaganda organ for the west?
    - rad_gruchalski 5y ago
      It would be better to link to the report from Reuters: https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/kazakh-president-says-constitutional-order-has-mostly-been-restored-2022-01-07/ https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/kazakh-president-... which contains this crucial information: "The militants have not laid down their arms, they continue to commit crimes or are preparing for them. The fight against them must be pursued to the end. Whoever does not surrender will be destroyed," President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev said in a televised address. "I have given the order to law enforcement agencies and the army to shoot to kill without warning."
Mikeb85 5y ago
Almost as many security forces have died as protesters according to this. Why is the title being dramatized to make it sound like Tienanmen?
- underscore_ku 5y ago
  "Almost as many security forces have died as protesters according to this" source?
  - mtmail 5y ago
    The article mentions it "The interior ministry says 26 "armed criminals" and 18 security officers have been killed so far in the unrest. "
    - underscore_ku 5y ago
      i mean, real independent sources.
      - sedan_baklazhan 5y ago
        Define "real independent sources".
    - PeterisP 5y ago
      The local sources in social media all were mentioning protester fatality numbers in hundreds. They are definitely not reliable, however, I would consider the official numbers reported by KZ government - which BBC is quoting - as even less trustworthy than random social media posts. Until we have better data I think that it is entirely appropriate to treat all current data from KZ government as intentionally falsified and either apply a reasonable multiplier (historically from other similar cases, a 10x multiplier seems appropriate; certainly that would be a better estimate than accepting their reports at face value, in similar earlier situations the reports always have been intentionally adjusted) or treat the local estimates as the best estimates currently available.
  - 5y ago
dsign 5y ago
According to the article, the reason for the protests is a hike in fuel prices. I'm going now in a tangent, but I wonder how much more of this we are going to see everywhere, specially if governments acted in the best interest of our environment and did everything in their power to prevent people from using fossil fuels.
- schleck8 5y ago
  The fuel prices only escalated an already tense situation for decades. The government is authoritarian.
  - sedan_baklazhan 5y ago
    This is basically saying that the gas prices were used as an convenient excuse to start protests, which obviously had a different (and unknown, except for violence) agenda.
    - schleck8 5y ago
      Are you familiar with the saying 'a drop to overflow the barrel'?
      - sedan_baklazhan 5y ago
        The question is: which barrel? And how to differ a planned violent uprising from a popular uprising? How can a popular peaceful uprising capture so many important building so fast?
        Jon_Lowtek 5y ago
        Well in general people kind of know which buildings are important and we are not talking medieval castles that require massive upfront planning to besiege, they probably just walked in and took them over.
        5y ago

44 points by underscore_ku 5y ago

Curious how this unrest can happen, like a switch was flipped, given the circumstances on the other Russian border country with Ukraine. Coincidental timing if nothing else, right?

q1w2 5y ago
When global gas prices rose this year, a black market emerged in Kazakhstan to smuggle out gov't subsidized gas to neighboring Kyrgystan and China (sold at triple the price). As the price of global gas went up, this black market became more profitable, more organized, and more controlled by organized crime. Remember also that Kazakhstan's largest city (and former capital in 2019), Almaty, is located by the Southern border. In an effort to curb this black market, the domestic price of gas raised much closer to the global market rate. Not surprisingly, the unrest was most violent and most well organized in Almaty. There is also an undercurrent of ethnic conflict between the ethnic Kazakh people and the ethnic Russia population. The former government has been working to switch from the Cyrillic alphabet to the Latin one, sending out language police to ensure businesses don't do business in Russian, and probably most importantly, talking to the US to establish US air bases.
- somedude895 5y ago
  > working to switch from the Cyrillic alphabet to the Latin one > talking to the US to establish US air bases I haven't read about this anywhere, but it sounds highly important considering Russia just sent in their troops. Do you have sources for these two claims?
  - Jon_Lowtek 5y ago
    Don't overvalue correlation. Kazhakstan has old contracts with Russia about (military) riot police support (called Collective Security Treaty Organisation) they are neighbors which has a logistical benefit and many Kazhaks speak russian, allowing a limited amount of communication, compared to, lets say, the french foreign legion (think: announcing surrender, asking for medical help, civilians that are not rioting). Lastly calling in foreign mercenaries to squelch unrest is a very old tactic as they are less likely to switch sides.
  - Jon_Lowtek 5y ago
    Concerning the alphabet here is a source: https://www.dw.com/en/kazakhstan-to-change-from-cyrillic-to-latin-alphabet/a-41147396 https://www.dw.com/en/kazakhstan-to-change-from-cyrillic-to-... DW is german state media reporting in english and it seems to at least mention most aspects from lingo-nationalism to computer keyboards and similar switches in the region. A newer source is https://astanatimes.com/2021/02/kazakhstan-presents-new-latin-alphabet-plans-gradual-transition-through-2031/ https://astanatimes.com/2021/02/kazakhstan-presents-new-lati... which focuses on how it is going. Note that Kazakhstan is not planning to use the most simple form of the Latin alphabet but relies on using umlauts, breves and cedillas to highlight different sounds used in spoken Kazakh. You can find more details in in https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kazakh_alphabets https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kazakh_alphabets
tyingq 5y ago
They lifted price caps on liquified petroleum gas on January 1st. It is used for heating, cooking, hot water, and most cars there run on LPG. Prices doubled overnight. Other reasons for unrest, but that was the switch flip / last straw.
relativ575 5y ago
A switch was flipped? Did you forget about 30 years of dictatorship, nepotism and corruption? If a dam collapses, do you also think it happens by some sort of switch? Also, I find it amusing that the West is always mentioned as potential factor, yet the bigger picture is rarely mentioned: Kazakhstan is a resource rich country with low population, sandwiched between two countries with huge ambition. China has much stake in Kazakhstan as any other countries, and probably more.

rad_gruchalski 5y ago

Amazing. Polish news also reports titles like this but they at least mention in the text “shoot without warning at any armed person who does not step down”. Why is BBC report missing this part of info?

schleck8 5y ago
The order was to shoot and kill 'terrorists', which in the regime's words is anyone stepping outside to protest who doesn't surrender immediately. Edit: Quoting the president according to a top comment on r/europe > “Negotiations are nonsense stupidity, these protesters are criminals, terrorists with foreign backup”
- sedan_baklazhan 5y ago
  That is a direct lie. It is said about anybody wearing arms and refusing to surrender. There are really peaceful protests proceeding in some areas w/o any issues.
a0-prw 5y ago
Because the BBC is a propaganda organ for the UK.
- schleck8 5y ago
  Weird, because Al Jazeera phrased it identically. Also a propaganda organ for the west?
  - rad_gruchalski 5y ago
    It would be better to link to the report from Reuters: https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/kazakh-president-says-constitutional-order-has-mostly-been-restored-2022-01-07/ https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/kazakh-president-... which contains this crucial information: "The militants have not laid down their arms, they continue to commit crimes or are preparing for them. The fight against them must be pursued to the end. Whoever does not surrender will be destroyed," President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev said in a televised address. "I have given the order to law enforcement agencies and the army to shoot to kill without warning."

Mikeb85 5y ago

Almost as many security forces have died as protesters according to this. Why is the title being dramatized to make it sound like Tienanmen?

underscore_ku 5y ago
"Almost as many security forces have died as protesters according to this" source?
- mtmail 5y ago
  The article mentions it "The interior ministry says 26 "armed criminals" and 18 security officers have been killed so far in the unrest. "
  - underscore_ku 5y ago
    i mean, real independent sources.
    - sedan_baklazhan 5y ago
      Define "real independent sources".
  - PeterisP 5y ago
    The local sources in social media all were mentioning protester fatality numbers in hundreds. They are definitely not reliable, however, I would consider the official numbers reported by KZ government - which BBC is quoting - as even less trustworthy than random social media posts. Until we have better data I think that it is entirely appropriate to treat all current data from KZ government as intentionally falsified and either apply a reasonable multiplier (historically from other similar cases, a 10x multiplier seems appropriate; certainly that would be a better estimate than accepting their reports at face value, in similar earlier situations the reports always have been intentionally adjusted) or treat the local estimates as the best estimates currently available.
- 5y ago

dsign 5y ago

According to the article, the reason for the protests is a hike in fuel prices. I'm going now in a tangent, but I wonder how much more of this we are going to see everywhere, specially if governments acted in the best interest of our environment and did everything in their power to prevent people from using fossil fuels.

schleck8 5y ago
The fuel prices only escalated an already tense situation for decades. The government is authoritarian.
- sedan_baklazhan 5y ago
  This is basically saying that the gas prices were used as an convenient excuse to start protests, which obviously had a different (and unknown, except for violence) agenda.
  - schleck8 5y ago
    Are you familiar with the saying 'a drop to overflow the barrel'?
    - sedan_baklazhan 5y ago
      The question is: which barrel? And how to differ a planned violent uprising from a popular uprising? How can a popular peaceful uprising capture so many important building so fast?
      - Jon_Lowtek 5y ago
        Well in general people kind of know which buildings are important and we are not talking medieval castles that require massive upfront planning to besiege, they probably just walked in and took them over.
        5y ago