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Apple's decision to ditch Intel and be in charge of their own destiny has done wonders in the short term but there will surely be consequences in the long run.

Apple's decision to ditch Intel and be in charge of their own destiny has done wonders in the short term but there will surely be consequences in the long run. Apple Silicon can't stay ahead forever and will hit a plateau. It's inevitable. At that point, they don't have the option to call Intel or AMD again. What are they going to do then?

2fast4you 5y ago
Why is the plateau unavoidable? Apple has a lot of money, they can hire top talent
n7pdx 5y ago
Intel already plateaued: https://images.anandtech.com/doci/16226/perf-trajectory.png https://images.anandtech.com/doci/16226/perf-trajectory.png
rowanG077 5y ago
> At that point, they don't have the option to call Intel or AMD again. I don't see why not. If anything a transition back would be easier with their now universal binary format.
- thebean11 5y ago
  Does the x86 -> ARM translation work in both directions?
  - rowanG077 5y ago
    My point is that once Apple is ready they won't have to.
  - avianlyric 5y ago
    Not at the moment. But there’s nothing fundamentally preventing Apple from writing an ARM to x86 translator. It’s probably easier that the opposite direction because x86 provides stricter execution ordering guarantees than ARM.
    - olliej 5y ago
      Register mapping is much harder, because you're going many->few, rather than the reverse. On the plus side you don't need to translate x87.
2OEH8eoCRo0 5y ago
Intel or AMD aren't going to turn their nose up if Apple wants their chips again.
GeekyBear 5y ago
> At that point, they don't have the option to call Intel or AMD again. That's not what Intel says. >Intel’s CEO Wants to Win Back Apple. https://www.barrons.com/articles/intels-ceo-wants-to-win-back-apple-new-macbook-pro-chips-show-why-its-easier-said-than-done-51634595554 https://www.barrons.com/articles/intels-ceo-wants-to-win-bac...
resoluteteeth 5y ago
It's not like making their own cpus and switching back to intel/amd are the only options anyway. It seems more likely that other arm processors will catch up to intel/amd, and in that case they won't need to necessarily always make their own processors as long as they can just get another company to add support for any custom instructions they use.
olliej 5y ago
Why is a plateau inevitable? And if it is, why aren’t AND and Intel subject to the same plateau? Why must AMD and Intel end up on top again? It’s not like apple doesn’t have the cash to keep investing in chip dev.
mgh2 5y ago
The supplier for all of them is TSMC, Apple being >50% of their production has a huge advantage https://www.gizmochina.com/2021/02/08/apple-tsmc-5nm-chips-2021/ https://www.gizmochina.com/2021/02/08/apple-tsmc-5nm-chips-2...
- olliej 5y ago
  Intel runs its own fabs, and slipping on r&d success in that area is a large part of what's been causing them problem in recent years.
icedchai 5y ago
They'll hire people from AMD, Intel, or whoever else happens to be around then. Money talks, and Apple has a ton of it throw at the problem. Their marketcap is larger than AMD, Intel, TSMC, and NVidia... combined.
steve_adams_86 5y ago
There was nothing unreasonable or problematic about Apple creating their own chips. It was good strategy and good business. It's good for the industry and end users. Everyone wins except for Intel, but Intel will gladly sell them chips again if they get the chance. It's money.
- Witeshadow 5y ago
  I think intel wins longer term too, more competition and diversity will help the d while market (assuming AMD / apple doesn’t make intel go bankrupt)
diebeforei485 5y ago
> Apple Silicon can't stay ahead forever and will hit a plateau. It's inevitable. Yes. > At that point, they don't have the option to call Intel or AMD again. What are they going to do then? I think there will be plenty of vendors, including Intel and AMD, willing to sell to Apple, actually. They also have other potential alternatives - Apple is also rumored to be doing lots of R&D into RISC-V and other architectures that don't require licensing ARM.
- NobodyNada 5y ago
  > Apple is also rumored to be doing lots of R&D into RISC-V and other architectures that don't require licensing ARM. Out of all the companies making CPUs, Apple seems the least likely to have problems licensing ARM. Apple co-founded ARM, and they seem to have much more favorable licensing terms than any other company, likely due to some old contract from the Newton days that's been grandfathered in. The Asahi project is discovering quite a few ways in which Apple's processors break the ARM spec and/or implement custom instructions -- which not even architectural-license holders are allowed to do. See e.g. this comment thread from a few days ago: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29783549 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29783549
seanhunter 5y ago
That's just not how business works - if you're in any kind of b2b business and the CEO of a $3Tn company calls you, you take the call and you bend over backwards to win the business if you can. If Tim Cook called Intel and said Apple was thinking about going back to Intel, Intel would surge like crazy to make it happen. The same exact thing would be the case for AMD or anyone else for that matter.
chii 5y ago
> Apple Silicon can't stay ahead forever and will hit a plateau. It's inevitable. that's a pretty large leap. Why can't they stay competitive? There's no reason why reverting to the mean applies this way.

2fast4you 5y ago

Why is the plateau unavoidable? Apple has a lot of money, they can hire top talent

n7pdx 5y ago

Intel already plateaued: https://images.anandtech.com/doci/16226/perf-trajectory.png https://images.anandtech.com/doci/16226/perf-trajectory.png

rowanG077 5y ago

> At that point, they don't have the option to call Intel or AMD again. I don't see why not. If anything a transition back would be easier with their now universal binary format.

thebean11 5y ago
Does the x86 -> ARM translation work in both directions?
- rowanG077 5y ago
  My point is that once Apple is ready they won't have to.
- avianlyric 5y ago
  Not at the moment. But there’s nothing fundamentally preventing Apple from writing an ARM to x86 translator. It’s probably easier that the opposite direction because x86 provides stricter execution ordering guarantees than ARM.
  - olliej 5y ago
    Register mapping is much harder, because you're going many->few, rather than the reverse. On the plus side you don't need to translate x87.

2OEH8eoCRo0 5y ago

Intel or AMD aren't going to turn their nose up if Apple wants their chips again.

GeekyBear 5y ago

> At that point, they don't have the option to call Intel or AMD again. That's not what Intel says. >Intel’s CEO Wants to Win Back Apple. https://www.barrons.com/articles/intels-ceo-wants-to-win-back-apple-new-macbook-pro-chips-show-why-its-easier-said-than-done-51634595554 https://www.barrons.com/articles/intels-ceo-wants-to-win-bac...

resoluteteeth 5y ago

It's not like making their own cpus and switching back to intel/amd are the only options anyway. It seems more likely that other arm processors will catch up to intel/amd, and in that case they won't need to necessarily always make their own processors as long as they can just get another company to add support for any custom instructions they use.

olliej 5y ago

Why is a plateau inevitable? And if it is, why aren’t AND and Intel subject to the same plateau? Why must AMD and Intel end up on top again? It’s not like apple doesn’t have the cash to keep investing in chip dev.

mgh2 5y ago

The supplier for all of them is TSMC, Apple being >50% of their production has a huge advantage https://www.gizmochina.com/2021/02/08/apple-tsmc-5nm-chips-2021/ https://www.gizmochina.com/2021/02/08/apple-tsmc-5nm-chips-2...

olliej 5y ago
Intel runs its own fabs, and slipping on r&d success in that area is a large part of what's been causing them problem in recent years.

icedchai 5y ago

They'll hire people from AMD, Intel, or whoever else happens to be around then. Money talks, and Apple has a ton of it throw at the problem. Their marketcap is larger than AMD, Intel, TSMC, and NVidia... combined.

steve_adams_86 5y ago

There was nothing unreasonable or problematic about Apple creating their own chips. It was good strategy and good business. It's good for the industry and end users. Everyone wins except for Intel, but Intel will gladly sell them chips again if they get the chance. It's money.

Witeshadow 5y ago
I think intel wins longer term too, more competition and diversity will help the d while market (assuming AMD / apple doesn’t make intel go bankrupt)

diebeforei485 5y ago

> Apple Silicon can't stay ahead forever and will hit a plateau. It's inevitable. Yes. > At that point, they don't have the option to call Intel or AMD again. What are they going to do then? I think there will be plenty of vendors, including Intel and AMD, willing to sell to Apple, actually. They also have other potential alternatives - Apple is also rumored to be doing lots of R&D into RISC-V and other architectures that don't require licensing ARM.

NobodyNada 5y ago
> Apple is also rumored to be doing lots of R&D into RISC-V and other architectures that don't require licensing ARM. Out of all the companies making CPUs, Apple seems the least likely to have problems licensing ARM. Apple co-founded ARM, and they seem to have much more favorable licensing terms than any other company, likely due to some old contract from the Newton days that's been grandfathered in. The Asahi project is discovering quite a few ways in which Apple's processors break the ARM spec and/or implement custom instructions -- which not even architectural-license holders are allowed to do. See e.g. this comment thread from a few days ago: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29783549 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29783549

seanhunter 5y ago

That's just not how business works - if you're in any kind of b2b business and the CEO of a $3Tn company calls you, you take the call and you bend over backwards to win the business if you can. If Tim Cook called Intel and said Apple was thinking about going back to Intel, Intel would surge like crazy to make it happen. The same exact thing would be the case for AMD or anyone else for that matter.

chii 5y ago

> Apple Silicon can't stay ahead forever and will hit a plateau. It's inevitable. that's a pretty large leap. Why can't they stay competitive? There's no reason why reverting to the mean applies this way.