5 ms·

You say "over and over" but Omicron is the first variant that actually evades immunity (both natural and vaccine-induced) in a meaningful way. What we don't kno

You say "over and over" but Omicron is the first variant that actually evades immunity (both natural and vaccine-induced) in a meaningful way. What we don't know is the level of immunity that an Omicron infection will provide. It could actually confer immunity to both itself and previous variants, which would effectively end the pandemic.

cduzz 5y ago
If something's a one a million event, happening billions of times per day, it'll happen pretty much constantly. This one, omicron, seems to mostly infect nasal passages and upper respiratory tract. The next, maybe after spending 2 years spreading across all the weasels of upper winchester county, may affect the lungs again. This is a lottery that's less fun to play... (edited for clarity)
- jaywalk 5y ago
  Yeah, sure. Who knows what viruses could be spreading and mutating amongst those weasels. It's not like SARS-CoV-2 is the first, and it won't be the last. But when you say > This is a lottery that's less fun to play How exactly do you propose not playing? Lockdowns, social distancing, masking, etc. for life? We're eventually going to have to start treating Covid the same as we've always treated "the flu" and it definitely appears that once Omicron has run through the population, we'll have reached the time to do that.
  - cduzz 5y ago
    I believe the idiom is "the horse left the barn" There are a number of things going on in the world that fall into the "really bad" category of both thing and trend of thing. There's space in between bland acceptance and incapacitating terror. At the very least have an honest, clear eyed view of where the risk bars are going, and it isn't in a good direction.
  - acdha 5y ago
    > Lockdowns, social distancing, masking, etc. for life? Very few places did lockdowns at any point so I wouldn’t expect that to start now, butthe ones which did were successful in breaking spread. It doesn’t need to be continuous, but it’s clearly effective for preventing huge spikes. Similarly, we’d save lives and billions of dollars if we established the same social norms which some Asian countries have about wearing masks when you’re symptomatic. It doesn’t need anything like 100% compliance or time to be useful – we appear to have lost an entire strain of influenza this way.
    - henrikschroder 5y ago
      > Very few places did lockdowns at any point This is some grade-a gaslighting, plenty of countries had long brutal lockdowns where no-one was allowed outside unless it was "essential". > butthe ones which did were successful in breaking spread. No. Many of those places had worse outcomes than places that didn't do any sort of lockdown. (When I say lockdown I mean stay-at-home orders. Do you have a different definition?)
    - landemva 5y ago
      The best thing to happen is people staying home when symptomatic. Wearing a mask while knowingly symptomatic is unhelpful to others, so I disagree with your belief of the alleged benefit of alleged Asian culture.
  - time_to_smile 5y ago
    > Lockdowns, social distancing, masking, etc. for life? If you can't handle these things as a part of your life you're really not going to like what climate change brings to the relatively near future. But you don't have to worry about arguing in forums, you've already won. Nobody respects lockdown, and never really did, even at the highest rate of infections I see people wearing masks beneath their noses, crammed next to people in airports. After omicron I can't imagine anyone caring at all even if we double our current death count. Covid is here, it will stick around forever, it will probably be notably worse than the flu for years to come. But in a few more years that will seem like a quaint thing to worry about.
  - lovecg 5y ago
    Banning certain high risk/low reward research would be a start.
nradov 5y ago
Actually prior infection by previous variants appear to still provide a significant level of cellular immunity against Omicron. There will always be some rare outliers who have a rough time but most reinfection cases will experience milder symptoms because their immune systems are already primed to respond. https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.06.471446v1 https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.06.471446v1
twic 5y ago
I think everyone in this thread is applying a binary model of immunity - either you are immune or you aren't, either a variant escapes or it doesn't. But immunity is analogue. A strong, specific, antibody response can prevent infection. A T-cell response can stop infection turning into severe illness and death. Variants can evade antibodies somewhat easily, but find it much harder to evade T-cells. Antibody levels wane in weeks or months (although memory B-cells remain), T-cells remain active for years or decades. If you had COVID last winter, then there would be a good chance of you getting it again this winter, even if it was the exact same strain. But you'd be much less likely to die of it. So when does the pandemic "end"? What is a "pandemic"? If tens of percent of the population are catching every winter, but few are dying, is that still a pandemic?
- empressplay 5y ago
  Nope, then it's endemic

cduzz 5y ago

If something's a one a million event, happening billions of times per day, it'll happen pretty much constantly. This one, omicron, seems to mostly infect nasal passages and upper respiratory tract. The next, maybe after spending 2 years spreading across all the weasels of upper winchester county, may affect the lungs again. This is a lottery that's less fun to play... (edited for clarity)

jaywalk 5y ago
Yeah, sure. Who knows what viruses could be spreading and mutating amongst those weasels. It's not like SARS-CoV-2 is the first, and it won't be the last. But when you say > This is a lottery that's less fun to play How exactly do you propose not playing? Lockdowns, social distancing, masking, etc. for life? We're eventually going to have to start treating Covid the same as we've always treated "the flu" and it definitely appears that once Omicron has run through the population, we'll have reached the time to do that.
- cduzz 5y ago
  I believe the idiom is "the horse left the barn" There are a number of things going on in the world that fall into the "really bad" category of both thing and trend of thing. There's space in between bland acceptance and incapacitating terror. At the very least have an honest, clear eyed view of where the risk bars are going, and it isn't in a good direction.
- acdha 5y ago
  > Lockdowns, social distancing, masking, etc. for life? Very few places did lockdowns at any point so I wouldn’t expect that to start now, butthe ones which did were successful in breaking spread. It doesn’t need to be continuous, but it’s clearly effective for preventing huge spikes. Similarly, we’d save lives and billions of dollars if we established the same social norms which some Asian countries have about wearing masks when you’re symptomatic. It doesn’t need anything like 100% compliance or time to be useful – we appear to have lost an entire strain of influenza this way.
  - henrikschroder 5y ago
    > Very few places did lockdowns at any point This is some grade-a gaslighting, plenty of countries had long brutal lockdowns where no-one was allowed outside unless it was "essential". > butthe ones which did were successful in breaking spread. No. Many of those places had worse outcomes than places that didn't do any sort of lockdown. (When I say lockdown I mean stay-at-home orders. Do you have a different definition?)
  - landemva 5y ago
    The best thing to happen is people staying home when symptomatic. Wearing a mask while knowingly symptomatic is unhelpful to others, so I disagree with your belief of the alleged benefit of alleged Asian culture.
- time_to_smile 5y ago
  > Lockdowns, social distancing, masking, etc. for life? If you can't handle these things as a part of your life you're really not going to like what climate change brings to the relatively near future. But you don't have to worry about arguing in forums, you've already won. Nobody respects lockdown, and never really did, even at the highest rate of infections I see people wearing masks beneath their noses, crammed next to people in airports. After omicron I can't imagine anyone caring at all even if we double our current death count. Covid is here, it will stick around forever, it will probably be notably worse than the flu for years to come. But in a few more years that will seem like a quaint thing to worry about.
- lovecg 5y ago
  Banning certain high risk/low reward research would be a start.

nradov 5y ago

Actually prior infection by previous variants appear to still provide a significant level of cellular immunity against Omicron. There will always be some rare outliers who have a rough time but most reinfection cases will experience milder symptoms because their immune systems are already primed to respond. https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.06.471446v1 https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.06.471446v1

twic 5y ago

I think everyone in this thread is applying a binary model of immunity - either you are immune or you aren't, either a variant escapes or it doesn't. But immunity is analogue. A strong, specific, antibody response can prevent infection. A T-cell response can stop infection turning into severe illness and death. Variants can evade antibodies somewhat easily, but find it much harder to evade T-cells. Antibody levels wane in weeks or months (although memory B-cells remain), T-cells remain active for years or decades. If you had COVID last winter, then there would be a good chance of you getting it again this winter, even if it was the exact same strain. But you'd be much less likely to die of it. So when does the pandemic "end"? What is a "pandemic"? If tens of percent of the population are catching every winter, but few are dying, is that still a pandemic?

empressplay 5y ago
Nope, then it's endemic