9 ms·

Raspberry 4 is probably the most likely candidate right now. Because you need a user base to make the software carry itself. Also from a power point of view 7

by bullen 5y ago

Raspberry 4 is probably the most likely candidate right now. Because you need a user base to make the software carry itself. Also from a power point of view 7W is pretty much what we have to play with if everyone is going to have one powered on permanently. Get a good case for it so that you can passively cool it and you're good to go for atleast 100 years if the heatpaste doesn't dry up: http://move.rupy.se/file/pi_4.jpg http://move.rupy.se/file/pi_4.jpg I recently found this case, but it's still in the mail: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B07Z6FYHCH https://www.amazon.com/dp/B07Z6FYHCH

nine_k 5y ago
I'm afraid that 100 years are not achievable in a guaranteed way because of the tin whiskers phenomenon [1]. Maybe covering the solder surfaces with thick, hard resin could help. (So goes repairability.) [1]: https://www.microcontrollertips.com/when-tin-whiskers-spontaneously-erupt-faq/ https://www.microcontrollertips.com/when-tin-whiskers-sponta...
- kurthr 5y ago
  While I agree with the sentiment... especially for ultra low cost solutions, the availability of Pb-Free HASL, Organic coatings, and NiAu plating make Sn whiskers much less of an issue than they were 10+ years ago. Through-hole components again might be lowest cost tin coating, but that's also easily fixed. Incremental 10% cost increases can dramatically improve long term and high temp reliability. Most SMT parts are pretty safe, because the suppliers are afraid of contaminating their supply chain. Even for commodity parts (Cell phones and Laptops) PCBs and components are built to prevent problems with Sn. Certainly, in Automotive it's a big deal!
- bullen 5y ago
  So then just use a brush and rub the PCB every 5 years? I mean they can only grow through air right? My 35 years old breadbins show no sign of these, maybe they have more lead in them... time will tell! How ironic if the old breadbins outlive modern hardware!
LeoPanthera 5y ago
Strongly agreed! I can highly recommend the flirc case. (Amazon B07WG4DW52) The entire metal case becomes the heatsink for the processor, and no fan is needed. It's strong and sturdy.
bayindirh 5y ago
The "Unbrickable" nature of Pi family of computers make them very enticing. Pi 4 w/ 8GB of RAM is surprisingly well rounded too (I don't need that amount of RAM all day long, but when you need it, it's there and that's nice). A good thermal paste (Arctic Cooling MX series, for example) is good for at least 10 years, and it has almost infinite shelf life, so renewing paste every decade is not bad. Another viable case is Cooler Master's Pi Case 40 [0]. The nice thing is, it's protected from dust, and lower tray files are open, so you can modify the design and reprint if you want to adapt it to a previous or next generation Pi compatible board. It also has a hardware button, which you can program. [0]: https://www.coolermaster.com/catalog/cases/raspberry-pi/pi-case-40/ https://www.coolermaster.com/catalog/cases/raspberry-pi/pi-c...
- enchiridion 5y ago
  Is gallium foil sufficient?
  - bayindirh 5y ago
    Using gallium as a heat transfer agent is very a very poor choice, considering it has a melting point of ~30 degrees Celsius, and a bog standard Raspberry Pi runs around 40-60 degrees Celsius range, depending on the load. I'm using Arctic Cooling's MX series thermal pastes for over a decade, and my eight year old MX-2 installation works as good as day one. It's taking heat away from an Intel i7 3770K, which is not a cool chip, esp. under load, and mine has seen some hotter days under constant load (with a scientific code which is designed to get as much performance possible from a processor, no less). I have a couple of these Cooler Master cases too, and their out of the box pastes are doing a good job for now. So, I'd rather not fix something if it's not broken. If the temps start to climb, I already have more than enough spare of the paste I use in my systems.
    - enchiridion 5y ago
      Definitely, thermal paste is the answer for any practical application. Ah you’re right. I was thinking of experiments with indium foil I had seen[1]. Plus gallium is used in the pastes apparently. So if the goal is a very long term thermal interface material, I don’t think pastes are the best. A homogenous solid is likely to last longer. Indium foil fits the bill nicely. Also thermal pads or graphite pads, but I’m not sure how long they last. [1] https://www.reddit.com/r/buildapc/comments/99fq4y/experiments_with_indium_instead_of_thermal_paste/ https://www.reddit.com/r/buildapc/comments/99fq4y/experiment...
winrid 5y ago
Assuming your capacitors will last 100 years. Chances are you'll have to replace them at least every 50.
- bullen 5y ago
  The pi has no electrolytic capacitors, again my C64 breadbins from 83-85 still have their original ones and work fine.
  - winrid 5y ago
    Oh neat! That certainly improves the odds.
Ekaros 5y ago
Now if the storage was reliable... Have had too many issues on that side.
- cturner 5y ago
  FeRAM may be viable for long-term rom, ram, and persistent storage. The usage contract should ensure it is recharged periodically. A plug-board could allow the user to manually populate the roms from paper if it lost charge.
- bullen 5y ago
  Only use consumer SanDisc or industrial Panasonic SLC (no longer manufactured) SD cards, all other brands are scams. The SD cards have peaked at 1TB but they are getting cheaper. (so far) Only use Intel SATA SSDs, I bought X25-E SLC drives from 2011 to get that 65nm 100.000 writes per bit. But yes, media will have to be replaced, as a whole with open-source software and distributed databases everything will be saved.
  - Ekaros 5y ago
    Now this leads to interesting question about media. Will SD interface be superseded for something else? Or might everything be in cloud or something. If the hardware works, but you can't get software there anymore how usable will it be.
    - bullen 5y ago
      No, SD cards use flash memory which is based on quantum flips. There wont be anything substantially better per GB/W/durability/$ than 65nm SLC just like 28nm is pretty much the peak of transistor size advantages. The lower you go from 65nm the brittler it becomes, also smaller and that's how the flash MLC has reached 1TB on the same surface (micro SD) that only allowed 8GB SLC. My X25-E drives are only 64GB!!! Photon/Quantum processors will never match electrical in Gflops/W/durability/$. Magnetic drives are not an option because of energy consumption. Also with peak hydrocarbons we don't have the energy to keep growing development/building of new things: So yes your concern is valid, what happens if SD/SSD media explodes in price and eventually is unavailable? My answer is buy the media you can right now and plan for it's use, charge ALOT for writes! Don't log anything. And try to get SLC while it's still available to buy: I have calculated that for the 1 million customers I plan to have (I will cap my user base, but since the software in open-source others will hopefully fill the gaps if the product is successful) I have enough drive durability to store and update their records once per day for 500 years. Set a limit to what you want to do. Apply the same to monitors, keyboards, mouses, power supplies, cases (passively cooled), batteries (lead-acid), routers, switches, cables etc. If you play it right the glass in the fiber strand will need replacing before your hardware stack does. And it probably will get replaced for high latency / low bandwidth messages by P2P radio: http://radiomesh.org http://radiomesh.org
willis936 5y ago
I just had a UPS pop on me yesterday during a storm. The least reliable part of any computer is the power supply. I doubt any wall wart will last 100 years. Certainly no SD card will. If you're accepting maintenance in your scenario then other options exist.
- bullen 5y ago
  It's a bet, I think my 4GB Panasonic SLC and 1TB SanDisk MLC SD cards will last 100 years with my MMO server on the small and database on the large. Our children will see how that works out! ;) For PSU I use overdimensioned Mean Well that should last 50 years atleast. You always need a window for failure, redundancy is your only friend in this case!
1MachineElf 5y ago
I wish there was a no-compromise passive case for the Raspberry Pi 4 that provided the silent cooing capability as well as add-ons such as a battery-backed RTC and PoE.
- bullen 5y ago
  I was pushing PoE until I found that a simple 5,5mm plug splitter to USB (micro/C) adapter will do the job with less complexity! http://move.rupy.se/file/final_pi_2_4_hybrid.png http://move.rupy.se/file/final_pi_2_4_hybrid.png
- 1MachineElf 5y ago
  A little over a week later and it seems something has been released that nearly meets these two requirements: https://www.cnx-software.com/2022/01/13/raspberry-pi-cm4-nano-industrial-mini-pc-supports-wide-temperature-range-12-18v-dc-in https://www.cnx-software.com/2022/01/13/raspberry-pi-cm4-nan...

by bullen 5y ago

nine_k 5y ago

I'm afraid that 100 years are not achievable in a guaranteed way because of the tin whiskers phenomenon [1]. Maybe covering the solder surfaces with thick, hard resin could help. (So goes repairability.) [1]: https://www.microcontrollertips.com/when-tin-whiskers-spontaneously-erupt-faq/ https://www.microcontrollertips.com/when-tin-whiskers-sponta...

kurthr 5y ago
While I agree with the sentiment... especially for ultra low cost solutions, the availability of Pb-Free HASL, Organic coatings, and NiAu plating make Sn whiskers much less of an issue than they were 10+ years ago. Through-hole components again might be lowest cost tin coating, but that's also easily fixed. Incremental 10% cost increases can dramatically improve long term and high temp reliability. Most SMT parts are pretty safe, because the suppliers are afraid of contaminating their supply chain. Even for commodity parts (Cell phones and Laptops) PCBs and components are built to prevent problems with Sn. Certainly, in Automotive it's a big deal!
bullen 5y ago
So then just use a brush and rub the PCB every 5 years? I mean they can only grow through air right? My 35 years old breadbins show no sign of these, maybe they have more lead in them... time will tell! How ironic if the old breadbins outlive modern hardware!

LeoPanthera 5y ago

Strongly agreed! I can highly recommend the flirc case. (Amazon B07WG4DW52) The entire metal case becomes the heatsink for the processor, and no fan is needed. It's strong and sturdy.

bayindirh 5y ago

The "Unbrickable" nature of Pi family of computers make them very enticing. Pi 4 w/ 8GB of RAM is surprisingly well rounded too (I don't need that amount of RAM all day long, but when you need it, it's there and that's nice). A good thermal paste (Arctic Cooling MX series, for example) is good for at least 10 years, and it has almost infinite shelf life, so renewing paste every decade is not bad. Another viable case is Cooler Master's Pi Case 40 [0]. The nice thing is, it's protected from dust, and lower tray files are open, so you can modify the design and reprint if you want to adapt it to a previous or next generation Pi compatible board. It also has a hardware button, which you can program. [0]: https://www.coolermaster.com/catalog/cases/raspberry-pi/pi-case-40/ https://www.coolermaster.com/catalog/cases/raspberry-pi/pi-c...

enchiridion 5y ago
Is gallium foil sufficient?
- bayindirh 5y ago
  Using gallium as a heat transfer agent is very a very poor choice, considering it has a melting point of ~30 degrees Celsius, and a bog standard Raspberry Pi runs around 40-60 degrees Celsius range, depending on the load. I'm using Arctic Cooling's MX series thermal pastes for over a decade, and my eight year old MX-2 installation works as good as day one. It's taking heat away from an Intel i7 3770K, which is not a cool chip, esp. under load, and mine has seen some hotter days under constant load (with a scientific code which is designed to get as much performance possible from a processor, no less). I have a couple of these Cooler Master cases too, and their out of the box pastes are doing a good job for now. So, I'd rather not fix something if it's not broken. If the temps start to climb, I already have more than enough spare of the paste I use in my systems.
  - enchiridion 5y ago
    Definitely, thermal paste is the answer for any practical application. Ah you’re right. I was thinking of experiments with indium foil I had seen[1]. Plus gallium is used in the pastes apparently. So if the goal is a very long term thermal interface material, I don’t think pastes are the best. A homogenous solid is likely to last longer. Indium foil fits the bill nicely. Also thermal pads or graphite pads, but I’m not sure how long they last. [1] https://www.reddit.com/r/buildapc/comments/99fq4y/experiments_with_indium_instead_of_thermal_paste/ https://www.reddit.com/r/buildapc/comments/99fq4y/experiment...

winrid 5y ago

Assuming your capacitors will last 100 years. Chances are you'll have to replace them at least every 50.

bullen 5y ago
The pi has no electrolytic capacitors, again my C64 breadbins from 83-85 still have their original ones and work fine.
- winrid 5y ago
  Oh neat! That certainly improves the odds.

Ekaros 5y ago

Now if the storage was reliable... Have had too many issues on that side.

cturner 5y ago
FeRAM may be viable for long-term rom, ram, and persistent storage. The usage contract should ensure it is recharged periodically. A plug-board could allow the user to manually populate the roms from paper if it lost charge.
bullen 5y ago
Only use consumer SanDisc or industrial Panasonic SLC (no longer manufactured) SD cards, all other brands are scams. The SD cards have peaked at 1TB but they are getting cheaper. (so far) Only use Intel SATA SSDs, I bought X25-E SLC drives from 2011 to get that 65nm 100.000 writes per bit. But yes, media will have to be replaced, as a whole with open-source software and distributed databases everything will be saved.
- Ekaros 5y ago
  Now this leads to interesting question about media. Will SD interface be superseded for something else? Or might everything be in cloud or something. If the hardware works, but you can't get software there anymore how usable will it be.
  - bullen 5y ago
    No, SD cards use flash memory which is based on quantum flips. There wont be anything substantially better per GB/W/durability/$ than 65nm SLC just like 28nm is pretty much the peak of transistor size advantages. The lower you go from 65nm the brittler it becomes, also smaller and that's how the flash MLC has reached 1TB on the same surface (micro SD) that only allowed 8GB SLC. My X25-E drives are only 64GB!!! Photon/Quantum processors will never match electrical in Gflops/W/durability/$. Magnetic drives are not an option because of energy consumption. Also with peak hydrocarbons we don't have the energy to keep growing development/building of new things: So yes your concern is valid, what happens if SD/SSD media explodes in price and eventually is unavailable? My answer is buy the media you can right now and plan for it's use, charge ALOT for writes! Don't log anything. And try to get SLC while it's still available to buy: I have calculated that for the 1 million customers I plan to have (I will cap my user base, but since the software in open-source others will hopefully fill the gaps if the product is successful) I have enough drive durability to store and update their records once per day for 500 years. Set a limit to what you want to do. Apply the same to monitors, keyboards, mouses, power supplies, cases (passively cooled), batteries (lead-acid), routers, switches, cables etc. If you play it right the glass in the fiber strand will need replacing before your hardware stack does. And it probably will get replaced for high latency / low bandwidth messages by P2P radio: http://radiomesh.org http://radiomesh.org

willis936 5y ago

I just had a UPS pop on me yesterday during a storm. The least reliable part of any computer is the power supply. I doubt any wall wart will last 100 years. Certainly no SD card will. If you're accepting maintenance in your scenario then other options exist.

bullen 5y ago
It's a bet, I think my 4GB Panasonic SLC and 1TB SanDisk MLC SD cards will last 100 years with my MMO server on the small and database on the large. Our children will see how that works out! ;) For PSU I use overdimensioned Mean Well that should last 50 years atleast. You always need a window for failure, redundancy is your only friend in this case!

1MachineElf 5y ago

I wish there was a no-compromise passive case for the Raspberry Pi 4 that provided the silent cooing capability as well as add-ons such as a battery-backed RTC and PoE.

bullen 5y ago
I was pushing PoE until I found that a simple 5,5mm plug splitter to USB (micro/C) adapter will do the job with less complexity! http://move.rupy.se/file/final_pi_2_4_hybrid.png http://move.rupy.se/file/final_pi_2_4_hybrid.png
1MachineElf 5y ago
A little over a week later and it seems something has been released that nearly meets these two requirements: https://www.cnx-software.com/2022/01/13/raspberry-pi-cm4-nano-industrial-mini-pc-supports-wide-temperature-range-12-18v-dc-in https://www.cnx-software.com/2022/01/13/raspberry-pi-cm4-nan...