4 ms·

I don't think that you can build a new semiconductor factory for $20 million (2e7), especially not when there is a chip shortage happening and you need factory

I don't think that you can build a new semiconductor factory for $20 million (2e7), especially not when there is a chip shortage happening and you need factory equipment containing such chips.

11thEarlOfMar 5y ago
State of the art fabs retail for US$10 Billion. TSMC, Samsung, Intel & China can afford to build them. (for context, Freedom Tower cost US$2 Billion.)
- baq 5y ago
  I think in 2022 it’s more like 15B. 10 sounds very early-2020.
amelius 5y ago
Perhaps you could do it at a 1000nm node, at very low volumes.
- analognoise 5y ago
  EBeam lithography will get you sub 10nm, but it's one at a time.
  - amelius 5y ago
    This is close to how they make the mask-sets, very slow.
bluGill 5y ago
There is the volume vs cost problem. You could put a fab together for under a million - but to do so your would trade labor for automation. A simple chip that a large fab can make for a profit (amortized) selling for 5 cents each would cost you more than $50,000 each to make. If you only need one chip that price is worth it, but most users of a chip are thinking a lot more and it typically turns out that getting a large fab to do your part is not only cheaper, but faster. Still you can do the highly manual process of making a chip if that is what you want to pay for.
- jfoutz 5y ago
  It's a little weird to me. I see in the comments 50 cent chips going for 75 dollars. The old process chips _seem_ diy able - http://sam.zeloof.xyz/first-ic/ http://sam.zeloof.xyz/first-ic/ Obviously it would take me, like, a year or two to get anything to work. But I'd guess there are folks out there that could spin up far far faster. I guess I don't understand why there isn't much, or any, labor intensive fabs combining on line, with a plan to automate away parts of the line as money comes in. I suppose, the chemicals are so toxic, and the skills are so rare you can't get any production for months, even at the small scale. and perhaps even at the crazy high prices it's still not worth taking on the risk. I know I don't know what I'm talking about. But golly it does _seem_ like I could make chips in a couple of years, and there's bound to be thousands of people out there that could do it in weeks. It seems like the kind of thing you could scale out with more labor and training, and improve process with automation as you go. edit Most trying to understand. Is it too toxic? are the skills so rare? Is the risk that high? Is that what's keeping low end chips from using a more expensive process even though they command higher prices - it's not enough to offset?
  - 11thEarlOfMar 5y ago
    The $0.50 for $75 is a short term situation that will resolve once the fab's pipelines get filled again. We buy >1,000,000 per year and had no trouble getting them until the fab shut down. We'll be fine soon (looks like they've opened production again). The primary costs of starting up a fab are 1. facilities, 2. equipment. Facility per square foot is likely the most expensive you'll find due to the appurtenant systems required for air flow and purity, a variety of gas handling systems, ridiculous electrical power systems, possibly gas plant systems, water purification and then treatment systems for both air and fluids exiting the plant. Some truly scary toxins are used and produced and have to be contained or captured and neutralized. In terms of equipment, you'll need at least one of each of 40 types. Lowest cost is about $500,000. Highest is likely $25,000,000 (at the geometry you're talking about). Average in the area of $3,000,000 - $5,000,000. You'll need a cadre of engineers and scientists to keep it all running, and 2-3 years from breaking ground to producing product. If you did buy one of each tool type, you'd have most of them sitting around doing nothing most of the time, since the process times vary dramatically. In reality, you're looking at $500,000,000 minimum to build a fab that can produce $0.47 chips. Seriously, you don't want to do that.

I don't think that you can build a new semiconductor factory for $20 million (2e7), especially not when there is a chip shortage happening and you need factory equipment containing such chips.

11thEarlOfMar 5y ago

State of the art fabs retail for US$10 Billion. TSMC, Samsung, Intel & China can afford to build them. (for context, Freedom Tower cost US$2 Billion.)

baq 5y ago
I think in 2022 it’s more like 15B. 10 sounds very early-2020.

amelius 5y ago

Perhaps you could do it at a 1000nm node, at very low volumes.

analognoise 5y ago
EBeam lithography will get you sub 10nm, but it's one at a time.
- amelius 5y ago
  This is close to how they make the mask-sets, very slow.

bluGill 5y ago

There is the volume vs cost problem. You could put a fab together for under a million - but to do so your would trade labor for automation. A simple chip that a large fab can make for a profit (amortized) selling for 5 cents each would cost you more than $50,000 each to make. If you only need one chip that price is worth it, but most users of a chip are thinking a lot more and it typically turns out that getting a large fab to do your part is not only cheaper, but faster. Still you can do the highly manual process of making a chip if that is what you want to pay for.

jfoutz 5y ago
It's a little weird to me. I see in the comments 50 cent chips going for 75 dollars. The old process chips _seem_ diy able - http://sam.zeloof.xyz/first-ic/ http://sam.zeloof.xyz/first-ic/ Obviously it would take me, like, a year or two to get anything to work. But I'd guess there are folks out there that could spin up far far faster. I guess I don't understand why there isn't much, or any, labor intensive fabs combining on line, with a plan to automate away parts of the line as money comes in. I suppose, the chemicals are so toxic, and the skills are so rare you can't get any production for months, even at the small scale. and perhaps even at the crazy high prices it's still not worth taking on the risk. I know I don't know what I'm talking about. But golly it does _seem_ like I could make chips in a couple of years, and there's bound to be thousands of people out there that could do it in weeks. It seems like the kind of thing you could scale out with more labor and training, and improve process with automation as you go. edit Most trying to understand. Is it too toxic? are the skills so rare? Is the risk that high? Is that what's keeping low end chips from using a more expensive process even though they command higher prices - it's not enough to offset?
- 11thEarlOfMar 5y ago
  The $0.50 for $75 is a short term situation that will resolve once the fab's pipelines get filled again. We buy >1,000,000 per year and had no trouble getting them until the fab shut down. We'll be fine soon (looks like they've opened production again). The primary costs of starting up a fab are 1. facilities, 2. equipment. Facility per square foot is likely the most expensive you'll find due to the appurtenant systems required for air flow and purity, a variety of gas handling systems, ridiculous electrical power systems, possibly gas plant systems, water purification and then treatment systems for both air and fluids exiting the plant. Some truly scary toxins are used and produced and have to be contained or captured and neutralized. In terms of equipment, you'll need at least one of each of 40 types. Lowest cost is about $500,000. Highest is likely $25,000,000 (at the geometry you're talking about). Average in the area of $3,000,000 - $5,000,000. You'll need a cadre of engineers and scientists to keep it all running, and 2-3 years from breaking ground to producing product. If you did buy one of each tool type, you'd have most of them sitting around doing nothing most of the time, since the process times vary dramatically. In reality, you're looking at $500,000,000 minimum to build a fab that can produce $0.47 chips. Seriously, you don't want to do that.