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More cases of Omicron observed in vaccinated people vs. unvaccinated people
- miles 5y agoThe Ontario government also reports many more COVID-19 cases (per 100,000 for each vaccination status) among the vaccinated than unvaccinated: All Ontario: Case numbers and spread https://covid-19.ontario.ca/data/case-numbers-and-spread https://covid-19.ontario.ca/data/case-numbers-and-spread Rate per 100,000 (12/31/21, 7-day average): Fully vaccinated: 79.86 Partially vaccinated: 63.77 Unvaccinated: 59.75
- ekianjo 5y agoYet all the restrictions fall on the unvaccinated. Are they going to reverse course?
- mailbag 5y agoAssuming restrictions on unvaccinated are reducing their rate of exposure, is this result that unexpected? Edit: While I personally don’t support broad restrictions, I’d actually argue this is evidence that the restrictions are making an impact.
- a0-prw 5y agoI think that is a big jump to make. There are no restrictions on the unvaxxed. We just have to get tested if we want to take part in society (go to bars, concerts, etc) The Danish covid passport does not discriminate between vaccination and a negative test. Both give access to everything Ironically, this means that lots of vaxxed people don't get tested anymore.
- ttyprintk 5y agoConsider that unvaccinated must quarantine before entering countries like France, and are being removed from the workforce and military in countries like USA, reducing the number of edges on their graph. Maybe I’m missing something but the pattern is what I’d expect at this stage. Most people acknowledge the risk to themselves of traveling or congregating, and subsequently to others who are immunocompromised or unvaccinated. What’s unpredictable is whether new variants will spread more readily, but we’re discovering that now, I guess.
- a0-prw 5y agoWell quarantine for entry to France and firing soldiers in the US doesn't effect the situation in Denmark :)
- ttyprintk 5y agoGiven global travel today, _it could_. My point is the widespread application of these rules is putting vaccinated people together to maintain convenience and isolating unvaccinated people to prevent healthcare overload.
- GuB-42 5y agoEven with free testing, having to test every other day to do some social activity is a burden. At the very least, you have to go to your local test center to do something not particularly enjoyable, and wait for the results. I'm sure most of the unvaccinated simply avoid "unnecessary" social events, or didn't do them in the first place (i.e. "I don't socialize, I don't need a vaccine").
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- darthrupert 5y agoDoes this figure ignore the fact that most people are fully vaccinated?
- angelzen 5y agoSimilar figures from Denmark, reported as rates and broke down by age groups. Waiting for severe omicron cases stats, which may lag for a few weeks. We are in for an interesting winter... https://covid19danmark.dk/#gennembrudsinfektioner https://covid19danmark.dk/#gennembrudsinfektioner https://files.ssi.dk/covid19/omikron/statusrapport/rapport-omikronvarianten-31122021-ct18 https://files.ssi.dk/covid19/omikron/statusrapport/rapport-o...
- darthrupert 5y agoAnd do those figures also ignore the fact that most people are vaccinated?
- GuB-42 5y agoNo. There are more cases in vaccinated people per 100000 numbers.
- darthrupert 5y agoRight. What's your theory on why this happens?
- GuB-42 5y agoI have a few theories of my own but it is not the point. And if you are curious, I still think everyone should get vaccinated / boosted, but I am just a random guy in the internet. You ask if the figures take into account the fact that many people are vaccinated and the answer is yes. Draw your own conclusions. Even if you are convinced of the vaccine benefits (which I am), you shouldn't be in denial when the numbers don't match your expectations. If you do, then your reasoning is no better than that of conspiracy theorists, climate change denialists and antivaxxers. Unboosted vaccine efficiency is negative for omicron, that's what the numbers are saying. If it contradicts your theory, then your theory is wrong and you have to find a better one. It you want to think scientifically, you have to consider the idea that vaccines can be ineffective/harmful, even if, like me, you don't believe it, because it is the most "obvious" conclusion. And only after you have accepted that possibility, you can look for confounding variables, mistakes and other effects that can disprove this idea.
- criticaltinker 5y agoI’m sure some folks here will chime in with countering/supporting data, but assuming these trends are truly representative, understanding why this is occurring will be imperative. One hypothesis involves the fact that current mRNA vaccines induce an immune response highly targeted toward the spike protein RBD. In contrast, natural infection induces a broader immune response that includes antibodies targeting other proteins (Nucleocapsid protein being one of the most notable; it is commonly used to determine if a prior infection occurred). Omicron in particular is a variant that has accumulated a significant number of mutations in the S protein region. Is this coincidence or are we seeing selective pressure due to mass vaccination campaigns?
- _djo_ 5y agoGiven the low vaccination rate in Sub-Saharan Africa at the time this variant emerged from there, it's unlikely that mass vaccination campaigns drove selection pressure in this case. Far more likely that it was a host jump or a long mutation period inside a single immuno-compromised individual.
- wsc981 5y ago> Given the low vaccination rate in Sub-Saharan Africa at the time this variant emerged from there, it's unlikely that mass vaccination campaigns drove selection pressure in this case. Far more likely that it was a host jump or a long mutation period inside a single immuno-compromised individual. Perhaps, but it's my understanding that Omicron was first observed in diplomats that had already received multiple vaccinations. See: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/03/world/botswana-diplomats-omicron-europe.html https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/03/world/botswana-diplomats-...
- _djo_ 5y agoNo, none of those are suspected of being Patient Zero because they aren’t the earliest cases. Just the first to be detected. Nigeria has found Omicron in samples dating back to October, long before the diplomat cases were identified, and analyses that have compared changes to the genome over time against the infection rate show that it likely emerged in late September / early October.
- nojokes 5y agoHow many of the unvaccinated in Ontario have been previously infected by any previous variants? Is there any recent seroprevalence data available?
- a0-prw 5y agoYes, and I've been asking this question for some time after seeing the Danish data. The vaccinated are overrepresented by a large amount. Something close to 90% of Omicron infections are in the vaccinated while they are about 75% of the population. About 8.5% are in unvaccinated. I don't believe this can be due to different behaviour or restrictions on unvaxxed because society is open if you have a negative test. Very interesting. It's almost as if this experiment is having unforseen consequences XD
- anakaine 5y agoCould it be as simple as those who have made the effort to get vaccinated are more keenly aware of monitoring for symptoms and are more likely to take the step of being tested to help prevent transmission where as those who remain unvaccinated are more likely to remain untested when symptomatic? Another poster here suggested that we are seeing the mRNA vaccines causing an immune response on a particular axis and that has caused selective pressure on mutations resulting in mutations such as Omicron, which in turn manifests more symptomatically in the vaccinated. We have some correlation, but no exploration of causation. Id suggest that twitter thread is jumping to conclusions without considering the why.
- _v7gu 5y agoYou have to regularly take tests if you aren't vaccinated, so that mechanism works in the opposite direction. We should have been seeing a higher representation in the unvaccinated even if the virus simply ignored the vaccine.
- Scandiravian 5y agoI disagree If this variant is mostly asymptomatic, but spreads rapidly, in the vaccinated population, then you would also see higher rates in the vaccinated population, given that vaccinated people only test after they are notified that they have been in contact with someone who tested positive. This gives a larger window for the virus to spread further among the vaccinated part of the population before containment.
- jokoon 5y agoI've read that the spike protein changed in this variant. I thought that would be unlikely since it was a key feature of this virus. So I guess it makes sense that current vaccines are much less efficient if the spike changed.
- Flankk 5y agoAntibody-dependent enhancement. Anyone raising concern was labelled an anti-vaxxer. Hubris is always punished.
- anakaine 5y agoThis is not evidence of a more severe outcome for the vaccinated, to be fair. The vaccinated have coverage across all major variants, with Omicrons coverage being questioned here. OG Covid-19, several early variants, Delta, and Omicron are all still doing the rounds. With no evidence of an increase in lethality or odds of contracting a variant with an increased lethality due to being vaccinated the body of evidence firmly sits well within the realm of "better to have coverage for most variants and partial coverage for those emerging" rather than "going in bareback, hold my popcorn!".
- Flankk 5y agoWhat makes you think it reduces severity when breakthrough cases are more common than the unvaccinated getting sick? You're talking about data from before ADE became a problem.
- ttyprintk 5y agoBecause it’s not the test rate difference that’s important for wider society but the hospitalization rate. I think you’re arguing that VAERD cannot be ruled out. ADE has been known among this family of viruses for long-enough that it’s described in the process of designing vaccine concentration. Though, I’m certainly not educated enough to understand ADE let alone VAED/VAERD.
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- foothebar 5y agoThe Twitter account this links to does not use real numbers – it is pure fake. * the daily cases report¹ of the RKI shows strictly raising cases of Omicron, but as of today (03.01.2022) a maximum of 19.9 (per 100k inhabitants, total cases in the last reported week: 274, that is 10% of all Covid-19 cases) – the linked Twitter message shows a completely wrong number "41" * the weekly report² of the RKI does not mention general Omicron rates of vaccinated vs. unvaccinated at all, neither does any of the from there linked resources. (The in the Twitter message marked text shows some numbers, but these are only a partial excerpt of all cases over all time, where for many cases – 35% – no status info exists at all. They can not be used for calculating what the author proposes.) * even if you could use that excerpt; the numbers in the graphic the author created, do not even add up to be valid among each other (e.g. "fully (2 or 3 dose)" is smaller than "2 dose"), and do not even reflect the proportion of the wanna-be source (the marked text), which e.g. would show there would be less re-infected state than unvaccinated – again: still the marked text is no usable source at all. So this is pure fake news from the liar @holmenkollin… Also the other counterfeited graphs, by another liar @10p8atriot, shown further below in the post, do really suck in 'counterfeiting quality', e.g. more than halving the unvaccinated cases, and adding some 1-vaccinations from April to June which do not at all exist in the data, which can be easily checked at the given source: https://data.gov.il/dataset/covid-19/resource/9b623a64-f7df-4d0c-9f57-09bd99a88880 https://data.gov.il/dataset/covid-19/resource/9b623a64-f7df-... whereof the real graph looks like this: https://ibb.co/f2SjmwP https://ibb.co/f2SjmwP No idea how these fakers get away with this all the time – must be something quasi-religious or so, at their fanbase. –––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––– [1] daily cases report of the RKI: https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Situationsberichte/Omikron-Faelle/Omikron-Faelle.html?__blob=publicationFile https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus... [2] weekly report of the RKI, 30.12.2021: https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Situationsberichte/Wochenbericht/Wochenbericht_2021-12-30.html https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus...
- angelzen 5y agoInteresting. * 30.12.2021 RKI Wochenbericht reads "1.097 Patientinnen und Patienten waren ungeimpft, 4.020 waren vollständig geimpft, von diesen wurde für 1.137 eine Auffrischimpfung angegeben." * 23.12.2021 RKI Wockenbericht reads "186 Patientinnen und Patienten waren ungeimpft, 924 waren vollständig geimpft, von diesen wurde für 161 eine Auffrischimpfung angegeben". * The OA screenshots a line that reads "186 Patientinnen und Patienten waren ungeimpft, 4.020 waren vollständig geimpft, von diesen wurde für 1.137 eine Auffrischimpfung angegeben." Either they doctored the data, or the 30.12.2021 RKI Wochenbericht perhaps contained an error that was since corrected and the OA panicked seeing the initial version? One more thing. Using omicron data from 30.12.2021 RKI Wochenbericht and vaccination data from https://impfdashboard.de/en https://impfdashboard.de/en, the omicron incidence rates don't look too good. This is difficult to do correctly in absence of data explicitly broken down by age because <18yo have significantly smaller vaccination rates (thus more "unvaccinated" at virtually no risk) compared to the adult population, but even so: total unvax vax 2-vax 3-vax pop 83.2M 21.5M 61.7M 26.9M 32.3M cases 5117 1097 4020 2883 1137 /100k 6.1 5.1 6.5 10.7 3.5
- foothebar 5y agoNo idea how these fakers get away with this all the time – must be something quasi-religious or so, at their fanbase.
- dang 5y agoCould you please not post unsubstantive and/or flamebait comments to HN? You've done it more than once already, and we ban accounts that do that, because we're trying for a different sort of conversation here. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html