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This story [1] (NYT paywall) is clearer IMHO: 1. 600,000 more elderly Americans, or 1 of 100, have died during the Covid epidemic than would have died had the

This story [1] (NYT paywall) is clearer IMHO: 1. 600,000 more elderly Americans, or 1 of 100, have died during the Covid epidemic than would have died had the epidemic not occurred. 2. 200,000 more non-elderly Americans, or 1 of 1,400, have died—but that's mostly ages 15-64, so more like 1 in 1,000 adults of working age. 3. The CDC says adult death rates were up 20%. [2] [1] https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/13/us/covid-deaths-elderly-americans.html https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/13/us/covid-deaths-elderly-a... [2] https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db427.htm#section_3 https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db427.htm#secti...

jtc331 5y ago
Worth noting that while there is a clear and measurable increase, the CDC makes a nonetheless significant error by assuming 2019 is the baseline when in fact we see a baseline increase every year even without other factors (both because of increasing population and because of slowing advances in medically extending lifespans).
- edmundsauto 5y ago
  Population growth is about 0.4% in the US, so that's probably not a big factor. In 2019, the CDC estimated that age-adjusted expected lifespan increased by 1.2% [0]. I think the population growth would indicate a lower death rate than implied by direct counting, since total pop is the denominator. However, I think the increased lifespan would work in the counter direction - Americans should live longer in 2020 than in '19 without C19. So while the CDC made methodological mistakes, I don't think it would affect the conclusion. [0] https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/nchs_press_releases/2020/202012.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/nchs_press_releases/2020/...
  - Rondon11 5y ago
    Associated Press | Jan 31, 2020 at 11:53 AM For 1st time in 4 years, US life expectancy rises — a little https://www.chicagotribune.com/lifestyles/health/health-fitness/sns-life-expectancy-united-states-rises-20200131-e7ststpypzagrk53vukdo2onem-story.html https://www.chicagotribune.com/lifestyles/health/health-fitn...
Manuel_D 5y ago
> 600,000 more elderly Americans, or 1 of 100, have died during the Covid epidemic than would have died had the epidemic not occurred. The article does not say this. The substantial majority of Covid deaths occur among people close to or beyond the typical life expectancy [1]. It's hard to measure how many people would have died during this time frame due to complications other than Covid, and the NYT article you linked to did not claim that these are additional deaths beyond what "would have died had the epidemic not occurred." 1. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm
- mcguire 5y ago
  The "typical life expectancy" is not a terribly useful number (unless you are considering emigration). A much more useful measure is the life expectancy at a person's current age (which will always be greater than their current age). And I note it is quite easy to figure out how many people you would expect to die from complications other than Covid---as a first order approximation it will be the same as in 2019 (unless you happen to know of a significant change other than COVID).
  - Manuel_D 5y ago
    > And I note it is quite easy to figure out how many people you would expect to die from complications other than Covid---as a first order approximation it will be the same as in 2019 (unless you happen to know of a significant change other than COVID). Correct, you could record the number of deaths due to heart disease, cancer, diabetes, etc. and subtract depressions in these death categories from Covid deaths. Subtract away reductions in non-covid deaths from the Covid death toll to account for the people that would have died absent Covid. My point is the linked NYT article didn't do this correction and it's wrong to write that they did.
  - Tycho 5y ago
    And how do those numbers compare?
- oezi 5y ago
  Life expectancy is a population average. You don't die just because you reach that age. There are quite a few studies showing that life years lost due to Covid are substantial even for the eldest.
raxxorrax 5y ago
2. might be wrong since the age group is manipulative but you haven't corrected enough. This data is a bit harder to get though and may not be available to the US. But data from other countries suggest that a vast majority of cases is in the 60-64 bracket. Sadly many governments choose these questionable grouping and it is fairly misleading.

jtc331 5y ago

Worth noting that while there is a clear and measurable increase, the CDC makes a nonetheless significant error by assuming 2019 is the baseline when in fact we see a baseline increase every year even without other factors (both because of increasing population and because of slowing advances in medically extending lifespans).

edmundsauto 5y ago
Population growth is about 0.4% in the US, so that's probably not a big factor. In 2019, the CDC estimated that age-adjusted expected lifespan increased by 1.2% [0]. I think the population growth would indicate a lower death rate than implied by direct counting, since total pop is the denominator. However, I think the increased lifespan would work in the counter direction - Americans should live longer in 2020 than in '19 without C19. So while the CDC made methodological mistakes, I don't think it would affect the conclusion. [0] https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/nchs_press_releases/2020/202012.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/nchs_press_releases/2020/...
- Rondon11 5y ago
  Associated Press | Jan 31, 2020 at 11:53 AM For 1st time in 4 years, US life expectancy rises — a little https://www.chicagotribune.com/lifestyles/health/health-fitness/sns-life-expectancy-united-states-rises-20200131-e7ststpypzagrk53vukdo2onem-story.html https://www.chicagotribune.com/lifestyles/health/health-fitn...

Manuel_D 5y ago

> 600,000 more elderly Americans, or 1 of 100, have died during the Covid epidemic than would have died had the epidemic not occurred. The article does not say this. The substantial majority of Covid deaths occur among people close to or beyond the typical life expectancy [1]. It's hard to measure how many people would have died during this time frame due to complications other than Covid, and the NYT article you linked to did not claim that these are additional deaths beyond what "would have died had the epidemic not occurred." 1. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm

mcguire 5y ago
The "typical life expectancy" is not a terribly useful number (unless you are considering emigration). A much more useful measure is the life expectancy at a person's current age (which will always be greater than their current age). And I note it is quite easy to figure out how many people you would expect to die from complications other than Covid---as a first order approximation it will be the same as in 2019 (unless you happen to know of a significant change other than COVID).
- Manuel_D 5y ago
  > And I note it is quite easy to figure out how many people you would expect to die from complications other than Covid---as a first order approximation it will be the same as in 2019 (unless you happen to know of a significant change other than COVID). Correct, you could record the number of deaths due to heart disease, cancer, diabetes, etc. and subtract depressions in these death categories from Covid deaths. Subtract away reductions in non-covid deaths from the Covid death toll to account for the people that would have died absent Covid. My point is the linked NYT article didn't do this correction and it's wrong to write that they did.
- Tycho 5y ago
  And how do those numbers compare?
oezi 5y ago
Life expectancy is a population average. You don't die just because you reach that age. There are quite a few studies showing that life years lost due to Covid are substantial even for the eldest.

raxxorrax 5y ago

2. might be wrong since the age group is manipulative but you haven't corrected enough. This data is a bit harder to get though and may not be available to the US. But data from other countries suggest that a vast majority of cases is in the 60-64 bracket. Sadly many governments choose these questionable grouping and it is fairly misleading.