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I think it's better to look for people who consistently make money on the back of comprehensible strategies where you understand the risks and failure modes. It

I think it's better to look for people who consistently make money on the back of comprehensible strategies where you understand the risks and failure modes. It's easy to find people who make money when the market goes down - wallstreetbets is full of people who buy puts, or maybe the market in general tanks but your specific lottery tickets pay out. I'm much more interested in someone who can articulate a strategy that I can understand and that has a good track record.

IAmGraydon 5y ago
No one with a working strategy is going to describe it to you. It would dilute the strategy's effectiveness. The nature of the market is that any edge that becomes public knowledge soon stops working.
chii 5y ago
> who can articulate a strategy that I can understand and that has a good track record. i wouldn't care for articulating the strategy, if they have a great track record (something like 20 years of positive returns for example).
- ALittleLight 5y ago
  If they can't articulate a strategy that you can understand then you run the risk that: A) It's a scam. Their strategy actually relies on dupes doing what they say while they do something different to profit off of the loss of their dupes. B) It's luck. With many people investing, and the market generally moving up, some of them will have good returns over time even without a good strategy. The problem here is you can do exactly what they say and it may not work. C) It's defunct. Maybe they had some plan that worked really well 20 years ago and the efficacy of the strategy has been declining. Or, as whoever it is reveals their strategy to you others see, understand, and compensate for the strategy and it stops working because of that. If you can understand the strategy then you can account for these risks and/or determine that they do not apply.
- ALittleLight 5y ago
  If they can't articulate a strategy that you can understand then you run the risk that: A) It's a scam. Their strategy actually relies on dupes doing what they say while they do something different to profit off of the loss of their dupes. B) It's luck. With many people investing, and the market generally moving up, some of them will have good returns over time even without a good strategy. The problem here is you can do exactly what they say and it may not work. C) It's defunct. Maybe they had some plan that worked really well 20 years ago and the efficacy of the strategy has been declining. Or, as whoever it is reveals their strategy to you others see, understand, and compensate for the strategy and it stops working because of that. If you can understand the strategy then you can account for these risks and/or determine that they do not apply.

IAmGraydon 5y ago

No one with a working strategy is going to describe it to you. It would dilute the strategy's effectiveness. The nature of the market is that any edge that becomes public knowledge soon stops working.

chii 5y ago

> who can articulate a strategy that I can understand and that has a good track record. i wouldn't care for articulating the strategy, if they have a great track record (something like 20 years of positive returns for example).

ALittleLight 5y ago
If they can't articulate a strategy that you can understand then you run the risk that: A) It's a scam. Their strategy actually relies on dupes doing what they say while they do something different to profit off of the loss of their dupes. B) It's luck. With many people investing, and the market generally moving up, some of them will have good returns over time even without a good strategy. The problem here is you can do exactly what they say and it may not work. C) It's defunct. Maybe they had some plan that worked really well 20 years ago and the efficacy of the strategy has been declining. Or, as whoever it is reveals their strategy to you others see, understand, and compensate for the strategy and it stops working because of that. If you can understand the strategy then you can account for these risks and/or determine that they do not apply.
ALittleLight 5y ago
If they can't articulate a strategy that you can understand then you run the risk that: A) It's a scam. Their strategy actually relies on dupes doing what they say while they do something different to profit off of the loss of their dupes. B) It's luck. With many people investing, and the market generally moving up, some of them will have good returns over time even without a good strategy. The problem here is you can do exactly what they say and it may not work. C) It's defunct. Maybe they had some plan that worked really well 20 years ago and the efficacy of the strategy has been declining. Or, as whoever it is reveals their strategy to you others see, understand, and compensate for the strategy and it stops working because of that. If you can understand the strategy then you can account for these risks and/or determine that they do not apply.