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Zero animosity intended. But ever since I started buying bitcoin after the financial crisis, I find any talk about markets so like that of a priesthood. Oh, god

Zero animosity intended. But ever since I started buying bitcoin after the financial crisis, I find any talk about markets so like that of a priesthood. Oh, god whispered what in your ear? Markets will rotate, fundamentals and speculation move in cycles…I see the patterns of Powell child, give a tithe…I know you’re well intentioned but I pretty much see 99% of all financial talk as nonsense guessing now. In my opinion there are a few people who really know, and they work for specific firms doing specific work, mostly in high frequency market making. Everyone else is very clearly winging it.

vmception 5y ago
The best thing to do is look at old forums and see how many predictions and analysis were noise Pick any ticket, pick any date, and find discussions about it that day
imtringued 5y ago
Nothing has changed. Why exactly will the economy support higher interest rates? Might as well ignore Powell. >Oh, god whispered what in your ear? Markets will rotate, fundamentals and speculation move in cycles…I see the patterns of Powell child, give a tithe… From my perspective that is true but only in the current system and not because it's certain, it's because the system doesn't even work. What's worse is that e.g. Bitcoin isn't even an alternative, it's just the same system but more aggressive. It's like someone understood that the gold standard has always been a lie and now they take the option of lying out, completely ignoring that there were good reasons for those lies. When currencies fail, people just try the old system again with predictable outcomes. No wonder people start believing in the certainty of market cycles. It's entirely plausible that all of this will be over with a different system, perhaps for thousands of years just like in ancient Egypt. Precious metal currencies have a track record of failure spanning millennia, somehow the Egyptians with their primitive grain money figured out something we didn't as their financial systems survived for thousands of years without crisis. Fiat is slightly different, in the sense that the rules are arbitrary and therefore could be written in a way that emulates the success of ancient Egypt.
- anm89 5y ago
  Even totally excluding covid, i find it very hard to look st the world over the last 5 years and say nothing has changed. You would have been laughed out of almost anywhere if you had predicted memestocks or cryptopunks 5 years ago. Our debt to GDP is up something like 30-40 percent since then. Our interest rates werent 0 Inflation wasnt 6+

vmception 5y ago

The best thing to do is look at old forums and see how many predictions and analysis were noise Pick any ticket, pick any date, and find discussions about it that day

imtringued 5y ago

Nothing has changed. Why exactly will the economy support higher interest rates? Might as well ignore Powell. >Oh, god whispered what in your ear? Markets will rotate, fundamentals and speculation move in cycles…I see the patterns of Powell child, give a tithe… From my perspective that is true but only in the current system and not because it's certain, it's because the system doesn't even work. What's worse is that e.g. Bitcoin isn't even an alternative, it's just the same system but more aggressive. It's like someone understood that the gold standard has always been a lie and now they take the option of lying out, completely ignoring that there were good reasons for those lies. When currencies fail, people just try the old system again with predictable outcomes. No wonder people start believing in the certainty of market cycles. It's entirely plausible that all of this will be over with a different system, perhaps for thousands of years just like in ancient Egypt. Precious metal currencies have a track record of failure spanning millennia, somehow the Egyptians with their primitive grain money figured out something we didn't as their financial systems survived for thousands of years without crisis. Fiat is slightly different, in the sense that the rules are arbitrary and therefore could be written in a way that emulates the success of ancient Egypt.

anm89 5y ago
Even totally excluding covid, i find it very hard to look st the world over the last 5 years and say nothing has changed. You would have been laughed out of almost anywhere if you had predicted memestocks or cryptopunks 5 years ago. Our debt to GDP is up something like 30-40 percent since then. Our interest rates werent 0 Inflation wasnt 6+