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> I'm learning to read crowds and quantify capital inflows into specific assets now. It is true that this is sometimes the necessary skill for making money in

by anm89 5y ago

> I'm learning to read crowds and quantify capital inflows into specific assets now. It is true that this is sometimes the necessary skill for making money in markets. Right now we are in a super risk on environment. But you also have to know how to see the writing on the wall and move back to a defensive position when the market rotates and fundamentals become important again. It is just as bad to be caught offsides here. Despite what may be popular wisdom these days, major indexes have down decades all the time. This blog post has some interesting insight on the topic based on Neil Gaiman's Sandman: https://www.epsilontheory.com/imagine-that/ https://www.epsilontheory.com/imagine-that/

vmception 5y ago
Oh yes all is well within my risk tolerance, Jerome Powell may flirt with tapering but the central banks are going to continue injecting hundreds of billions in liquidity per month, and the reality is that it goes somewhere! Even if it pools at the top, those guys are playing a game of making it grow faster than the central bank dilutes the supply, which is who this article is about
- anm89 5y ago
  This is my take. Highly increased volitility but in the end thkngs are nominally moving up. If there was a real dip. 20 or 30% on dow or spy, i would buy the absolute hell out of it. The fiscal stimulus that will follow is going to be the stuff of legends. It'll make the new deal look quaint.
sjtindell 5y ago
Zero animosity intended. But ever since I started buying bitcoin after the financial crisis, I find any talk about markets so like that of a priesthood. Oh, god whispered what in your ear? Markets will rotate, fundamentals and speculation move in cycles…I see the patterns of Powell child, give a tithe…I know you’re well intentioned but I pretty much see 99% of all financial talk as nonsense guessing now. In my opinion there are a few people who really know, and they work for specific firms doing specific work, mostly in high frequency market making. Everyone else is very clearly winging it.
- vmception 5y ago
  The best thing to do is look at old forums and see how many predictions and analysis were noise Pick any ticket, pick any date, and find discussions about it that day
- imtringued 5y ago
  Nothing has changed. Why exactly will the economy support higher interest rates? Might as well ignore Powell. >Oh, god whispered what in your ear? Markets will rotate, fundamentals and speculation move in cycles…I see the patterns of Powell child, give a tithe… From my perspective that is true but only in the current system and not because it's certain, it's because the system doesn't even work. What's worse is that e.g. Bitcoin isn't even an alternative, it's just the same system but more aggressive. It's like someone understood that the gold standard has always been a lie and now they take the option of lying out, completely ignoring that there were good reasons for those lies. When currencies fail, people just try the old system again with predictable outcomes. No wonder people start believing in the certainty of market cycles. It's entirely plausible that all of this will be over with a different system, perhaps for thousands of years just like in ancient Egypt. Precious metal currencies have a track record of failure spanning millennia, somehow the Egyptians with their primitive grain money figured out something we didn't as their financial systems survived for thousands of years without crisis. Fiat is slightly different, in the sense that the rules are arbitrary and therefore could be written in a way that emulates the success of ancient Egypt.
  - anm89 5y ago
    Even totally excluding covid, i find it very hard to look st the world over the last 5 years and say nothing has changed. You would have been laughed out of almost anywhere if you had predicted memestocks or cryptopunks 5 years ago. Our debt to GDP is up something like 30-40 percent since then. Our interest rates werent 0 Inflation wasnt 6+

by anm89 5y ago

vmception 5y ago

Oh yes all is well within my risk tolerance, Jerome Powell may flirt with tapering but the central banks are going to continue injecting hundreds of billions in liquidity per month, and the reality is that it goes somewhere! Even if it pools at the top, those guys are playing a game of making it grow faster than the central bank dilutes the supply, which is who this article is about

anm89 5y ago
This is my take. Highly increased volitility but in the end thkngs are nominally moving up. If there was a real dip. 20 or 30% on dow or spy, i would buy the absolute hell out of it. The fiscal stimulus that will follow is going to be the stuff of legends. It'll make the new deal look quaint.

sjtindell 5y ago

Zero animosity intended. But ever since I started buying bitcoin after the financial crisis, I find any talk about markets so like that of a priesthood. Oh, god whispered what in your ear? Markets will rotate, fundamentals and speculation move in cycles…I see the patterns of Powell child, give a tithe…I know you’re well intentioned but I pretty much see 99% of all financial talk as nonsense guessing now. In my opinion there are a few people who really know, and they work for specific firms doing specific work, mostly in high frequency market making. Everyone else is very clearly winging it.

vmception 5y ago
The best thing to do is look at old forums and see how many predictions and analysis were noise Pick any ticket, pick any date, and find discussions about it that day
imtringued 5y ago
Nothing has changed. Why exactly will the economy support higher interest rates? Might as well ignore Powell. >Oh, god whispered what in your ear? Markets will rotate, fundamentals and speculation move in cycles…I see the patterns of Powell child, give a tithe… From my perspective that is true but only in the current system and not because it's certain, it's because the system doesn't even work. What's worse is that e.g. Bitcoin isn't even an alternative, it's just the same system but more aggressive. It's like someone understood that the gold standard has always been a lie and now they take the option of lying out, completely ignoring that there were good reasons for those lies. When currencies fail, people just try the old system again with predictable outcomes. No wonder people start believing in the certainty of market cycles. It's entirely plausible that all of this will be over with a different system, perhaps for thousands of years just like in ancient Egypt. Precious metal currencies have a track record of failure spanning millennia, somehow the Egyptians with their primitive grain money figured out something we didn't as their financial systems survived for thousands of years without crisis. Fiat is slightly different, in the sense that the rules are arbitrary and therefore could be written in a way that emulates the success of ancient Egypt.
- anm89 5y ago
  Even totally excluding covid, i find it very hard to look st the world over the last 5 years and say nothing has changed. You would have been laughed out of almost anywhere if you had predicted memestocks or cryptopunks 5 years ago. Our debt to GDP is up something like 30-40 percent since then. Our interest rates werent 0 Inflation wasnt 6+